NFL Showdown can be a fickle beast. These contests do not rely on median projections so much as leverage and uniqueness. Fading the highest-rostered plays can be a risky proposition. Typically, your edge is going to come by identifying the best low-rostered plays and finding clever ways to pair them with the juggernauts of the slate.
This article will have a heavy DraftKings lean simply because the Showdown decision-making process is more interesting, given the salary premium attached to the Captain spot. FanDuel's pricing is the same for both MVP and Flex spots. You will usually need the slate's top scorer at MVP, so FanDuel strategy revolves around unique Flex builds.
Advice in this article will pertain predominantly to tournament lineups and strategy. For cash lineups, build around median projections. For head-to-head contests, continue to lean into the median projections, but if two options project closely, give the nod to the lowest rostered player.
Game Theory
Vegas continues to fluctuate this spread between Chiefs -3 and -3.5, so there’s no reason to project a blowout (or garbage time) in either direction. The Chiefs, after all, have landed within one score in 10 of their last 12 games. The 46.5 total feels a little low, which hints that Vegas may be semi-desperate for folks to bet the over. In other words: this doesn’t feel like a shootout, with neither team big on splash plays thus far, and both defenses like to watch the deep ball.
In a closely-projected game, the first instinct is often a 3:3 team:team build. But I rarely have success with those; hedging and safe play won’t take home much on a Showdown slate. I’d much rather lean Falcons 4:2, playing for the possibility of a sluggish Chiefs offense that struggles to sustain drives without Isaiah Pacheco.
Injury Report
The Chiefs backfield has been put into disarray by the loss of Isaiah Pacheco – perhaps for the rest of the season. Now, the fantasy world waits with bated breath to see how coach Andy Reid sorts out Carson Steele, Samaje Perine, and Kareem Hunt. They’re also operating without new face Hollywood Brown, who’s yet to play a regular-season snap for the Chiefs.
For the Falcons, only Tyler Allgeier (hip) offered up any drama over the week, and he looks ready to play tonight.
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