Dynasty Waivers of the Future: Week 6

My colleague Jeff Blaylock and I gaze into our crystal footballs each week to find players who may become popular waiver targets in the future so that you can pick them up now for next to nothing. We'll start with our priorities, then gaze deeper for lightly rostered gems who have been largely overlooked by dynasty managers so far. We'll indicate the percentage of Sleeper dynasty leagues rostering each player we discuss

I don't have an insightful introduction this week because whenever I sit down to write one, the only thing that comes out is the word "injuries." I think there's something wrong with my keyboard.

Or maybe it's trying to tell me something.

We've discussed before that one of the reasons we do this exercise is to dig deep so that when injuries hit our dynasty rosters, we have already acquired the player most likely to benefit. As Jeff pointed out in our chat yesterday, managers who have spent time mining the waiver wire and stocking their rosters with players awaiting an opportunity saw some payoff this week.

Tell them what you told me, Blaylock!

JEFF: Well, that was a crazy week. If your fantasy opponent had Rico Dowdle, Kendrick Bourne, and A.J. Barner in their starting lineup, you were probably celebrating on Saturday. By Monday, you were probably wondering how you got beaten so badly. 

JOSH: How did I?

JEFF: Dowdle had more rushing yards than Saquon Barkley, Chase Brown, Jahmyr Gibbs, Derrick Henry, and Christian McCaffrey combined. Dowdle's average draft position (ADP) was RB56. Those others were among the first RBs taken in most drafts. Bourne had one fewer receiving yard than A.J. Brown, Nico Collins, Ladd McConkey, and Jameson Williams combined. Bourne was drafted in so few leagues that he didn't even have an ADP. Barner scored more fantasy points than Mark Andrews, T.J. Hockenson, and Trey McBride combined. Like Bourne, Barner was drafted almost nowhere.

JOSH: So, before we get to this week's guys, what's your takeaway from what we saw in Week 5 from these players?

JEFF: It's a testament to the unpredictability of the NFL and why savvy dynasty managers claim the right unheralded players off waivers.

JOSH: So, who are we considering this week?

Priority Pickups

WR Tez Johnson, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (39% Rostered)

JEFF: Johnson played a season-high 22 snaps and was targeted four times. His 20 routes were the third most among wide receivers behind Emeka Egbuka (30) and Chris Godwin (26). Johnson lined up wide for a majority of those routes, but his small size and quick burst make him a better fit for the slot. Johnson, who was selected in the seventh round of this year's draft, had an impressive preseason, including an eight-catch performance against Buffalo. He sits behind several veterans and fellow rookie Emeka Egbuka on the depth chart.

When Mike Evans returns, Johnson likely sees his opportunities vanish, for now. If this were redraft, that would be enough to leave him on the waiver wire, but dynasty managers should take notice. Evans is in the last year of his contract, as is veteran Sterling Shepard, who leads the team in targets when lined up in the slot. Our Matt Waldman said this summer that Johnson could be the team's slot receiver of the future. Stash Johnson before he has a breakout game.

JOSH: I like that pick. The Tampa Bay passing offense is a pretty consistent source of fantasy points, and I think that targeting those situations with your deep shots is the right way to go.

Speaking of targeting productive situations...

QB Jameis Winston, New York Giants, (29% Rostered)

JOSH: Ok, follow me now:

A few weeks ago, my priority pickup was Jake Browning, who was stepping into an offense that seemed tailor-made to produce quarterback fantasy points even if I was the starter. In his four starts, he has finished as QB14, QB29, QB32, and QB11. I don't really want to admit how many FAAB bucks I spent on him, but I stand by the process. Browning has a great opportunity, but he still has to seize it. After the loss to Detroit, Bengals coaches were non-committal regarding whether Browning would continue to start. Brett Rypien and Mike White are the other quarterback options currently on the Cincinnati roster, but I can't imagine the coaching staff believes either guy gives them a better chance than Browning to save their season and possibly their jobs.

Now, there's maybe a 2.33 percent chance they make a trade for Winston, but at some point, the Giants should consider whether he's worth more to them as an inactive emergency quarterback every week or as a trade chip to pick up a free draft pick from a team looking for a spark at quarterback. Winston can be a roller-coaster ride for fantasy managers, but the fantasy world is a better place when he's throwing bombs instead of holding clipboards.

Deep Darts