Eyes of the Guru IDP Info, Part 10: Carolina Panthers

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An Overview of the Carolina Panthers Defense

Carolina moved from a 4-3 base defense to a 3-4 in 2023. It is common for teams to struggle with such a change in the first year, as they adjust and adapt personnel. By the second year, teams usually begin to show improvement. That was not the case with this unit as the Panthers turned in a dismal performance in 2024.

There is nothing for this group to hang their hats on. The pass rush was horrible, finishing 30th with 32 sacks. The pass defense was terrible, ranking 28th in yards per attempt and 20th in yards allowed, while giving up a league high 35 scores. The run defense made the pass defense look good. Carolina was dead last at 5.2 yards per carry, giving up the third most points on the ground, and the 3057 rush yards were a whopping 653 more than any other team. It is no wonder the Panthers allowed 31.4 points per game and 66 more than anyone else on the season. With numbers like that, there is nowhere to go but up.

As might be expected, injuries played a major role. The team's outstanding tackle, Derrick Brown, played 60 snaps before being lost for the season. The starting inside linebackers missed 18 games between them, and their best pass rusher played his first game in week ten. Getting healthy will go a long way, but the organization did much more than that. They used second and third-round picks on edge defenders, a fourth at safety, and a fifth on the interior line. There were no super star additions in free agency, but Carolina signed five players who will contribute, including three possible starters.    

Carolina Panthers Defensive Linemen

When Brown tore his meniscus in week one, it set the stage for the debacle that was the Panthers' defense last year. He was the seventh overall pick in 2020. Over his first two seasons, it looked as if Brown might not live up to his draft status. He was solid on the field while anchoring the defense from the nose tackle position, recording modest tackle numbers with five sacks. His production perked up in year three with 67 combined stops, 7 batted passes, and two splash plays.

The Panthers hired Ejiro Evero as defensive coordinator in 2023, making the change to a 3-4. What a difference it made for Brown in his fourth year. At 56-49-2, his 105 combined stops were 16 more than any other player at the position. Even without great splash play numbers, he was the fantasy game's number two tackle, finishing 33 points ahead of number three. We didn't see enough of him last year to prove that his monster season was not a mirage, so that risk still exists. That said, I believe it was the scheme change and his move to the outside tackle spot that flipped the switch. Brown may never put up more than three or four sacks in a season, but even if it slips a little, the gaudy tackle production should be enough to make him a strong DT1.  

There is uncertainty about who will start at the other outside tackle position. A'Shawn Robinson opened last season there. The nine-year veteran went on to record the best numbers of his career across the board at 43-37-5. The 2016 second-round pick of the Lions has started for all four teams he has played for, yet some believe that free agent signee Tershawn Wharton will get the call. I will believe that when I see it. What would not be a surprise, however, would be one of them playing nose tackle to get both of them on the field.

Wharton is a six-year, former undrafted free agent who spent most of his first five seasons as a rotational backup for the Chiefs before breaking into a starting lineup last year. While he should see significant time either way, I expect Wharton to work in the familiar role of third man.  

Both Robinson and Wharton put up the best numbers of their respective careers in 2024. Robinson's were enough to make him top five at the position. Meanwhile, Wharton's 18-11-6.5 put him outside of the first 40. Put this competition on the watch list. Whoever wins the bigger role should be roster-worthy at the least.

The Panthers' edge position accounted for eleven sacks in 2024. If the team is to start climbing the ladder, they will need much more from the group in 2025. A healthy D.J. Wonnum should be able to deliver. A fourth-round pick of the Vikings in 2020, he was on-and-off as a starter for Minnesota, seeing a lot of time as the third man. Wonnum recorded 23 sacks over four years there, while contributing good tackle numbers on a per-snap basis.

A quad injury shut Wonnum down in 2023. Complications with the subsequent surgery kept him off the field for the first nine games in 2024. Over the final eight contests, he was 18-19-4 with a forced fumble. Project those numbers over a full season, and we get production that would make him a major fantasy factor at roughly 39-41-8.5.

Jadeveon Clowney tied with Robinson for the team lead at 5.5 sacks last season. With Clowney gone, second-round pick Nic Scourton is penciled in as the starter opposite Wonnum. The rookie could be in for a productive first season. As a sophomore at Purdue in 2023, he produced 50 combined tackles, 10 sacks, a forced fumble, and 3 batted passes. Scourton transferred to Texas A&M last year, where he added 37 tackles, 5 sacks, a forced fumble, and 2 batted passes. For a player forgoing his senior season, Scourton played a lot of football in college.

Scourton checks the box for college production, but it's his scouting reports that raise eyebrows. At six feet three inches and 257 pounds, He has the size, power, and will to be effective versus the run. As a pass rusher, he can be special. Scourton lacks elite speed or quickness, but already has an arsenal of moves and knows how to use them to set up blockers. Most interesting was the NFL comparison of respected analyst Lance Zierlein, who says Scourton reminds him of a young Trey Hendrickson.

The Panthers did not use a lot of bodies in their rotation last year. It's hard to say if that was by design or simply because they were short on depth. Patrick Jones II followed his former Vikings teammate to Carolina in free agency and is the favorite to be the third man on the edge. Johnson spent most of his four years in Minnesota working as a third-down specialist. The 39 tackles and 7 sacks he put up last year were career highs. Jones will compete for playing time with holdover DJ Johnson and third-round rookie Princely Umanmielen.  

Umanmielen is an interesting prospect. He will need some seasoning as a run defender, which could limit his use for a while, but Umanmielen is an accomplished pass rusher. He had 14 sacks over four years at Florida before playing at Ole Miss in 2024. The one season with the Rebels produced 37 tackles, 10.5 sacks, 2 turnovers, and a score.         

• Edge D.J. Wonnum – Solid second starter with top-12 potential
• Edge Nic Scourton – Dynasty target who could surprise as a rookie
• Edge Patrick Jones II – Injury sleeper
• Edge D.J. Johnson – No impact expected
• Edge Princely Umanmielen – Dynasty sleeper with strong long-term potential
• DT Derrick Brown – target as low-end DT1 with top-five upside
• DT A'Shawn Robinson – sleeper with priority DT2 potential
• DT Tershawn Wharton – Watchlist sleeper
• DT Shy Tuttle – No impact expected
• DT LaBryan Ray – Injury sleeper with a low ceiling
• DT Bobby Brown III – Early down space eater with no fantasy value

Carolina Panthers Linebackers

The linebacker position was a disaster for the Panthers last season. Shaq Thompson missed all but four games, Josey Jewell was in and out of the lineup with nagging injuries, and rookie backup Trevin Wallace was not yet ready for prime time. The scramble saw seven players log at least 125 snaps, with no one reaching 75% of the action and six players making at least one start.

Jewell dealt with a quad injury, a sore hamstring, and a concussion in 2024, with all three injuries costing him at least one game. Had it not been for the injuries, it would have been the most productive of his seven years in the league. Jewell was a backup in Denver over his first two seasons. He became a starter in year three, yet questionable cover skills kept him on the sidelines on most passing downs. After missing 2021 with an injury, Jewell came back as a starter with enough improvement in coverage to play on all three downs.

Jewell became fantasy-relevant in 2022 as a borderline third starter, moving up a few slots in 2023. Despite the injuries and playing at less than 100% in several games, Jewell's points per-game average ranked twelfth in 2024. He is healthy now and ready to roll. If Jewell can pick up where he left off and stay out of the trainer's room,  he will be a surprisingly solid option for us this year.  

Between last year's struggles and Shaq Thompson signing with Buffalo, it's surprising that the team's only significant addition at the second level is Christian Rozeboom. Barring an unexpected surge by second-year man Trevin Wallace, Rozeboom should land the other starting job. The Panthers did not play two full-time linebackers last year. It's hard to say if that was by design or due to the shortage of depth.

Rozeboom made a living on special teams for two years before getting on the field as a linebacker in 2023. In his limited role that year, he earned the confidence of the Rams staff, opening 2024 as a two-down starter. His role was expanded later in the season due to injuries. When all the numbers were in, he was 69-66-1 with 4 pass breakups and an interception on roughly 75% of the action.

We can't count on a three-down role for Rozeboom. On the other hand, there could be a lot of early-down opportunities for him. The ceiling is limited if he fails to get on the field in sub-packages; however, Rozeboom is one hangnail away from an every-down role on possibly the worst run defense in the league.  

The Panthers knew that Wallace was somewhat of a project when they drafted him in the third round last spring. He showed some positive signs when called upon, but in general, he was not ready for the job. Experience is always good for a young player. That, along with another offseason of preparation, could make him a different player in year two. The Panthers have certainly not given up on him. At age 22, he has time to grow and may still become a starter at some point. He has a long way to go based on last year's performance, but Wallace is worthy of a spot on the watch list.

• ILB Josey Jewell – Solid LB2
• ILB Christian Rozeboom – Sleeper with an LB3 ceiling
• ILB Trevin Wallace – Watchlist player
• ILB Jacoby Windmon – injury sleeper at best

Carolina Panthers Defensive Backs

It is always a bad sign when the free safety leads a team in tackles. This was the case in Carolina, where Xavier Woods led the way, and three of the top four were defensive backs. Woods is gone, as is last year's starting strong safety Jordan Fuller. The new look will feature former Raiders starter Tre'von Moehrig at free safety, while the strong safety position could feature one of the summer's most important competitions, at least from a fantasy perspective.

Moehrig comes off a 2024 campaign that saw him produce career-highs in combined tackles, at 104, takeaways with 4, and pass breakups with 10. Those numbers are somewhat deceiving, as he spent a significant amount of time at strong safety. It is unlikely, but not out of the realm of possibility, that he could end up in that role with the Panthers as well.  

While Moehrig produced useful tackle numbers for the first time, his playmaking ability has been on display for the last two seasons. Since taking on the starting job for Las Vegas in 2023, he has 7 takeaways, 3 sacks, and 18 pass breakups. The moral of the story is that, even though we have not seen big production from him yet, Moehrig is capable, especially if the Panthers' front seven fails to show major improvement.

It is unclear who will have the strong safety job when the season opens. However, there is not a big pool for the staff to choose from. I am seeing a lot of speculative depth charts with Nick Scott at the top of the list. There are two reasons that I am not buying it. The first is that we've seen enough of Scott to know he is not an NFL starter. The Rams gave him a shot in 2022 and let him walk after the season. He was penciled in at strong safety for the Bengals in 2023. That lasted a few games before he was benched and not invited back. Scott was even at the top of Carolina's depth chart for a time last season. He made four starts when Fuller was out, and we never saw him again. Granted, Scott's departure from the lineup last year was injury-related initially. The key point is that when he returned for the last month of the season, Demani Richardson stayed in the lineup.

Richardson is the second reason I am not taking the bait on Scott. He made five starts as an undrafted rookie last year and looked pretty good in all of them. At six feet one and 215 pounds, he is a physical downhill hitter in run defense and displayed decent cover skills despite his inexperience.

Production is the reason I hope to be right on this one. Five starts is a small sample, yet it was enough for Richardson to impress in the box scores. Over those games, he totaled 26 tackles, 22 assists, 2 passes defended, and a pick. It is a long time before week one, so this situation is far from resolved. Put it high on the watch list, though. If Richardson comes away with this job, he could be an absolute steal in the last round.

Rookie Lathan Ransom is the wildcard here. He is a natural strong safety with plenty of experience as a productive four-year starter at Ohio State. As a senior, he totaled 76 stops, 5 turnovers, and a score. If it's not Robinson, look for Ransom to be a pleasant surprise.   

When healthy, Jaycee Horn is arguably the best player on this defense. He has missed considerable time in two of his four years in the league, playing a full slate of games only once so far. On the field, the 2021 eighth-overall pick is a difference-maker. Horn is already a dependable number-one corner and has the chance to become one of the elite in the coming years. Having him healthy will be a big boost for the Panthers, but Horn simply does not make enough tackles to have any fantasy value. Nor does he produce enough big plays to compensate.

Mike Jackson starts opposite Horn. He is a veteran journeyman playing for his fifth team in six years. His best production came with the Seahawks in 2022 when he had 63 solo stops, 12 assists, 3 turnovers, and 12 passes defended. While Jackson was borderline roster worthy in his first go-around with the Panthers, there is no significant upside. He could be useful as a bye week flyer, but don't waste a roster spot.

The best shot for us to get fantasy value from Carolina's corners comes with second-year man Chau Smith-Wade, who is slated to handle the slot corner duties. He played a mere 301 snaps as a rookie, producing an impressive (for the snap count) 39 tackles and a pair of turnovers. The Panthers fielded three corners about 70% of the time in 2024. If Smith-Wade gets all of those snaps, he could be surprisingly productive. It would be no surprise if he played full-time with Jackson coming off the field and Smith-Wade working with Horn in two corner looks.

• FS Tre'von Moehrig – High ceiling but a low floor as well 
• SS Demani Richardson – High upside sleeper
• SS Nick Scott – Limited value at best
• FS Lathan Ransom – Deep sleeper/dynasty prospect
• SS Jammie Robinson – No impact
• CB Jaycee Horn – Marginal fantasy value
• CB Mike Jackson – Marginal impact
• CB Chau Smith-Wade– Watchlist sleeper
• CB Akayleb Evans – No impact

That does it for part 10. On to the Saints.  

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