Lessons Learned From Over 200 Drafts

Many of you might be gearing up for your first fantasy football draft soon. Luckily for you, I've already done over 200 drafts - real drafts against real people for real money. Throughout this process, I've learned a great deal, especially in identifying areas where certain positions can be drafted at the best value. In this article, I'll share what I've learned, strategies I'm implementing, players I'm targeting, and players I'm avoiding.

Late-round quarterbacks and tight ends are very appetizing this year, making it a good year to build out a strong early-round foundation of running backs and wide receivers.

Let's dive in, starting at the top of the draft and working our way down.

Early Round 1

If you've got the first pick this year, it's easy. Take Ja'Marr Chase. Regardless of your scoring settings, he should be the first overall pick in most leagues. He's got a sky-high floor and ceiling.

If you're picking 2-6, you can't go wrong with any of these guys.

• CeeDee Lamb
• Saquon Barkley
• Jahmyr Gibbs
• Bijan Robinson
• Justin Jefferson

The back half of Round 1 is where things get weird.

Late Round 1 - Early Round 3

There are many different routes to take, but the reality is that the players from the end of Round 1 through the start of Round 3 are pretty flat, so don't be afraid to get your guy. After all, you're the one managing this roster. Pick the guys you want. But here's how I've ranked them (you may notice that my rankings differ quite a bit from ADP).

• Christian McCaffrey
• Malik Nabers
• Drake London
  *TIER BREAK*
• Jonathan Taylor
• Chase Brown
  *TIER BREAK*
• Jaxon Smith-Njigba
• Nico Collins
• Brian Thomas Jr..
• Ladd McConkey
  *TIER BREAK*
• Ashton Jeanty
• Derrick Henry
• De'Von Achane

Here are some early-round players I'm avoiding relative to ADP.

• Amon-Ra St. Brown
• Bucky Irving
• Puka Nacua
• A.J. Brown
• Brock Bowers
• Mike Evans
• Tyreek Hill
• Josh Allen
• Jalen Hurts
• Breece Hall
• Terry McLaurin
• DK Metcalf

I don't want to turn this into a "Why I'm Fading These Players" article. But feel free to DM me on Twitter/X or email me at kluge@footballguys.com. I'm more than happy to provide additional context.

There's an outdated mindset that you need to draft a specific position early. ADPs this year have made for pockets in the middle rounds where you can get strong wide receivers and running backs (we'll cover that later), so simply draft the best values early and allow those picks to dictate your overall strategy.

If you're picking at the 2/3 turn, you'll likely luck into some of the players above, as other managers will reach for quarterbacks and tight ends. Do not be one of those managers! Both positions are deep this year, and I'll provide you with my favorite late-round targets later in this article. There's been a recent influx of young talent injected into both positions. Former superstars are cooling off. And veterans are finding success in their second and third acts. That's led to a flattening of the positions, meaning there's plenty of value to be had late.

Rounds 3-4

Once you're in Rounds 3-4, there's a nice pocket of running backs that I find myself preferring to the wide receivers with similar value.