Eyes of the Guru IDP Info: Week 12

A few more injuries to navigate, a slew of ugly offensive performances that all but killed IDP value for some big names, and a generally low-scoring week just to make things interesting. Just like the NFL guys, we'll take the ugly wins and complain about the ugly losses, but it's on to week 12.

Guru's IDP Notes: Arizona Cardinals

The Cardinals put Mack Wilson Sr. on IR ahead of last week's game. That means Cody Simon has at least three games remaining in his audition. We never know what the coaches are thinking and sometimes have to wonder if they are watching the same games that we are, but so far, Simon is looking good on the stat sheet. The twelve-tackle performance versus San Francisco was the first double-digit fantasy production of his career. The Jaguars are a mediocre matchup on paper because they have been wildly inconsistent. Playing Simon this week could result in something like the 16-tackle day that Devin White had in week nine, or the 4-1 that we got from Daiyan Henley in week eleven.

Josh Sweat kept the sack run going against Los Angeles, but did nothing else (1-0-1). The most disturbing factor here is the snap counts of the Cardinals' linemen.  No edge logged more than 25 of a possible 55 snaps, and Darius Robinson led the interior lineman with 33. Jacksonville held the Chargers without a sack, but they are still averaging 3.8 per game since week five, including 2.3 to the edge position. There is a good chance that Sweat will keep the streak alive, but if he doesn't, there is a risk of the dreaded doughnut.   

Garrett Williams left Sunday's game with a shin injury. If he is out, rookie Denzel Burke will make his second start.

Guru's IDP Notes: Atlanta Falcons

This is not a new tale. We've seen it before with safeties. Jessie Bates III was a huge disappointment early in the season. He made no splash-play contribution until week nine and didn't give us double-digit points in a game until week seven. The Falcons were playing well, especially on defense, and winning games back then. As they have begun to struggle a bit, the pendulum has swung for Bates, who was 6-2 in the loss to Carolina last week, has three takeaways since week nine, and has reached double-digits in three of the last five. The Saints are a mediocre matchup, but sometimes that is trumped by the hot hand. 

This week's golden ticket is Ronnie Harrison Jr., who just might be that late pickup that puts you over the top. Harrison blew up for 9-2-1 and a pass breakup while playing 98% of the snaps against the Panthers. He assumed the full-time role, sending JD Bertrand back to the bench completely. Adding to the value, many league host sites designate Harrison a safety. There is nothing better than sliding a linebacker's production into your defensive back slot.

The emergence of Harrison also allowed for Kaden Elliss to see more snaps as a pass rusher, as he was doing often early in the year. It could all prove to be nothing more than a one-week blip, but I get the feeling it will not be. Five more sacks for the Falcons

LaCale London has not yet earned a starting job, but if he keeps producing at the current pace, it will be hard to keep him off the field. He played 28 snaps in each of his last two games and is 7-1-3 with a forced fumble in them. At the very least, he has earned some attention.

The Falcons added five more sacks to their total against Carolina. Jalon Walker did not have any of them, but it was encouraging to see him total four solo stops. This suggests we can count on him for a solid contribution even when he doesn't get to the quarterback.  

Guru's IDP Notes: Baltimore Ravens

Kyle Hamilton turned in a huge performance at 6-3-1 with a forced fumble and 2 pass breakups. Everyone else was rather quiet in a game where the Brown offense was dominated. The only other Raven with a decent contribution was corner Nate Wiggins with a 4-0 and a pick. Wiggins has given us four good games in a row since the team's bye. Despite the offensive struggles, the Jets have been a fair matchup for corners in most weeks. It's hard to say what impact the change to Tyrod Taylor at quarterback will bring.

Guru's IDP Notes: Buffalo Bills

Cole Bishop cooled off a bit in the tackle column but made up for it with another interception, to remain hot. Meanwhile, Jordan Poyer turned in his most productive outing in two seasons, going 7-8 with a pass defended. The Texans have been a solid matchup for safeties, even with Davis Mills under center. Bishop should be in our lineups, and Poyer could be a good stream option.

Guru's IDP Notes: Carolina Panthers

The Panthers have not had a linebacker play every snap in a game since week seven. With Trevin Wallace on the shelf, Claudin Cherelus logged a 79% share of the action, going 2-8 with a pass breakup, and Christian Rozeboom matched his 2-8 on two more snaps. Those numbers don't instill a great level of confidence, but it helps that they have one of the game's best matchups with Christian McCaffrey and the 49ers.

Not surprisingly, the McCaffrey matchup is a good one for safeties as well. San Francisco has allowed the sixth most points to the position on the season, so put Tre'von Moehrig in your lineup on the heels of his 6-5 last week.

The Panthers may have something in rookie Nic Scourton. He didn't get to the quarterback last week but managed a decent tackle output at 3-2, and had a few pressures along the way. That's at least four tackles in each of the last four games and three sacks over the last five.  

A'Shawn Robinson saw his role seriously reduced, playing 19 snaps against San Francisco. As of Wednesday, I've seen nothing to suggest that the drop in playing time was anything more than a coach's decision.

Guru's IDP Notes: Chicago Bears

Noah Sewell turned in a solid outing versus the Vikings, but don't count on him for much this week. The Steelers are a below-average matchup for linebackers, and there is a chance that T.J. Edwards will return after missing the last two games with a hand injury.

Tyrique Stevenson came up gimpy with a lower-body injury and missed some time at the end of last week's game. The injury does not appear to be an issue as he practiced early in the week and is expected to be ready.

Guru's IDP Notes: Cincinnati Bengals

Trey Hendrickson is likely to miss at least one more game, Shemar Stewart landed on IR this week, and Cam Sample has a strained oblique. That leaves the Bengals paper-thin on the edge and means Myles Murphy will start opposite Joesph Ossai.

As poorly as the Bengals have played on defense, I hesitate to admit that I have optimism about Murphy this week and possibly beyond. The former first-round pick is finally starting to show signs of life. He went 4-3-1 against the Steelers and is 6-7-1 with a batted pass in the last two games. With Cedric Johnson and Isaiah Foskey as the only other healthy edge defenders on the roster, it is a safe bet that Murphy will see plenty of playing time. The Patriots have been a great matchup, giving up almost 10 tackles, 2.4 sacks, half a turnover, and just over half a swatted pass per game to the position since week 5.

There is no doubt that the Bengals regret the firing of Joe Anarumo. I wonder if they are also regretting the trade of Logan Wilson? Barrett Carter had an ugly game in week eleven, not just statistically, but on the field as well. Bad angles, missed tackles, and blown coverage assignments led to a poor stat sheet as well at 1-3. About the only thing Carter had going for him was 100% participation. It's too late for the team to turn back now. The Patriots are a mediocre matchup, so don't look for a big rebound.

Oren Burkes (2-7) and Demetrius Knight Jr. (1-1 PD) each played 57% of the snaps against Pittsburgh.

Guru's IDP Notes: Cleveland Browns

Myles Garrett did it again. His 5-0-4 catapulted him into the league lead with 15 sacks and made him the fantasy game's top edge for the second time in his last three games. If that weren't enough, he gets a matchup with the Raiders' struggling offensive line this week.

Guru's IDP Notes: Dallas Cowboys