Targets and goal-line carries are the lifeblood of quality fantasy production for the running back position. The starting role and receiving a high volume of carries are nice, but occurring away from the end zone makes those touches empty-calorie opportunities. In short, they do not mean much. However, being a starter and a high-volume back generally points to more targets and goal-line chances, which can lead to high-scoring fantasy plays. This weekly feature analyzes all 32 NFL depth charts for underrated and overrated running backs.
Note: See the table of all teams' HLO rankings at the bottom of this article.
This season-ending installment will cover which teams overachieved and underachieved their team's HLO opportunities.
The Overachievers
Panthers
The highest variance in backfield performance relative to expectations this season was Carolina. They ranked 23rd in expected HLO but 13th in actual fantasy production in those situations. The biggest outlier stat was that, while they did not get many goal-line carries (28th in the NFL, just 10 carries all season inside the five-yard-line), they converted a regression-worthy 70% of those carries into touchdowns, nearly double the NFL average.
Falcons
Bijan Robinson was a league-winning player with his eruption to even a higher standard of production in the fantasy playoffs this season. Atlanta was one of the few elite teams to produce even more through their targets and goal-line carries than the expected fantasy production. While Robinson was an impact player in 2025, there should be even more optimism in 2026 with Tyler Allgeier a slated free agent, plus Robinson not being featured near the goal line for much of this season.
Bills
Despite finishing No.12 in the final expected HLO production rankings, the Bills were No.8 in actual results, thanks to a dogged efficiency in the passing game for the running back position, more than 10% above expected fantasy production. This, plus James Cook's panache for scoring on the ground outside of goal-line situations (Buffalo was 10th in goal-line carries and 10th in goal-line rushing touchdowns), led to their marked success this season.
