Eyes of the Guru IDP Info, Part 14: Indianapolis Colts

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An Overview of the Indianapolis Colts Defense

The quarterback situation gets most of the focus in Indianapolis. If the defense fails to play much better than last year, it makes no difference who is under center. The 2024 Colts struggled in nearly every aspect. They were 24th against the run, 25th versus the pass, and 31st in completion percentage. The pass rush was pedestrian with 36 sacks, and the biggest tell of all, only six teams allowed more points. The only thing this defense did well was take the ball away. Their 25 turnovers were the seventh most.

The front office got busy in free agency, signing two corners and a safety. Two of those additions project as starters. They also bolstered their depth at tackle. The Colts didn't stop there. The draft saw them add an edge in round two, another corner in the third, more tackle depth in the sixth, and a seventh-round safety who will be groomed to play linebacker.

The influx of new talent will go a long way, but the team's most important defensive addition is defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo. There is a reason the Bengals have never won a Super Bowl. It's because they do stupid things like letting too many good players leave and then compounding the mistake by firing good coaches when they can't make a silk purse out of a cow pie. That pretty much sums up Anarumo's departure from Cincinnati at the end of last season.   

It took the Colts all of 15 days from the time Anarumo was fired to announce him as their new DC. He brings a scheme that is an aggressive and attacking, yet innovative style of play. His scheme emphasizes disguise and deceit to create confusion, with a penetrating and disruptive physical aspect. Over his six seasons as coordinator for the Bengals, Anarumo put together some good defenses that were especially opportunistic, making a lot of big plays at key moments. Colts fans have a lot to look forward to.  

Indianapolis Colts Defensive Linemen

The Indianapolis defensive line includes one of the best tackle tandems in both the NFL and IDP games. Grover Stewart mans the one-technique or nose tackle position, while DeForest Buckner is the three-technique. At six feet four and 314 pounds, Stewart is not the biggest to play the position, but he is one of the more productive. He holds up well against double teams and does a great job of getting off blocks to make plays. Stuart is a big man without much wiggle as a pass rusher, but will contribute by bull-rushing blockers and forcing the passer out of the pocket.

Stewart turned in career-best numbers across the board in 2022. His 44 solo tackles tied Washington's Jonathan Allen and his teammate for the second most by an interior lineman that year. Add 25 assists, and a career best of 4 sacks, and Stewart was number eleven at the position.

The 2023 season was not pretty for Stewart. He missed several games with injury and was less productive even when healthy. It looked af if the big numbers of his previous season would be a career outlier. While Stewart's 2022 remains his best year, he was back in the saddle in 2024. His 29-45-3.5 with 2 turnovers, and 3 batted passes, were slightly lower than his best. In that particular season, they were good enough for the first top ten of his career. He will be 32 in October and is on the downside of his career, but there is still gas in the tank.

Buckner is a perennial elite DT1. In nine seasons as a pro, he has never totaled fewer than 59 combined tackles. That includes last season when he was 24-37-6.5 despite missing six games. Buckner is one of the league's premier inside pass rushers with 74.5 career sacks. His personal best of 12 came in 2018, and he has at least six and a half in each of the last six seasons. Buckner had eight forced fumbles and seven recoveries between 2019 and 2023, and consistently knocks down at least three or four passes a season. Most importantly for IDP managers, since 2018, Buckner has not finished outside the top five with back-to-back number ones in 2019 and 2020 and a return to the top in 2023. The missed games held him back last year, but even then, his per-game average ranked third. While Buckner is not a candidate to be the first defensive player off the board, there is no argument against making him the first defensive tackle taken.  

The games missed by Buckner exposed the team's lack of depth. Thus, Taven Bryan and Raekwon Davis are out, replaced by former Cowboy Neville Gallimore and late-round rookie Tim Smith. Gallimore should see most of the leftover playing time while Smith will compete with holdovers Eric Johnson II and 2023 Adetomiwa Adebawore to establish the rest of the depth chart.

Last year's Colts used a four-man rotation at defensive end, at least when their top four guys were healthy. That is not the approach Lou Anarumo normally takes. When Trey Hendrickson and Sam Hubbard were both healthy in 2023, they were on the field for better than 70% of the action. With Hubbard banged up last year, Henrickson logged 825 snaps. This is important to know because the holdup with Colts' edge defenders in recent years can be largely attributed to low snap counts.   

If Anarumo sticks to his tendencies, it could be a big year for two of the Colts' edge players. The trick for us is to figure out which two. Indianapolis has never been afraid to expend capital on the edge position. Kwity Paye was a first-round pick in 2021, and Laiatu Latu was selected 15th overall last year. With 2021 second-rounder Dayo Odeyingbo gone, those two are the favorites to hold the starting jobs. The Colts, however, are deeper than most teams at the position.

Paye has not exactly been a disappointment, although he has underperformed somewhat considering his draft status. He has 26 sacks over four seasons, including 8 in each of the last two. Paye has also contributed 9 takeaways, 5 of those coming over the last two seasons. His big-play production has been solid, but modest tackle totals have limited his value. Paye's best production came in 2023 when he finished at 31-21-8 with 4 turnovers. He has fewer than 45 combined stops in each of the other three seasons. Some IDP experts are calling for a breakout from Paye. I can see a path to that happening, especially with the extra motivation of a contract year.  

Laiatu Latu had a quiet rookie season, but he did show signs of bigger things ahead. He saw the third-most snaps at the position, going 16-16-4 with 3 forced fumbles and a recovery. For an idea of just how much bigger he could be, Latu totaled 101 combined stops with 24 sacks and 8 turnovers in two years as a starter for UCLA.

Samson Ebukam joined the Colts as a free agent in 2023. He immediately turned in the best statistical performance of his seven-year career, going 39-17-9.5 with 4 forced fumbles. He missed all of last season with an Achilles injury, but will be ready to go when training camp opens. Tyquan Lewis was the team's second-round pick in 2018. He's been a starter off and on, picking up a few snaps by sliding inside on passing downs. These two figure to be third and fourth in snaps, respectively, with Ebukam as the next man up in the event of injury.

The Colts used a second-round pick this spring on JT Tuimoloau, who packs an impressive resume. He was a three-year starter at Ohio State, totaling 144 combined tackles, 23.5 sacks, and 7 turnovers for the Buckeyes. He should see some action as a rookie, but the selection of Tuimoloau is more of a look-ahead. With Paye, Ebukam, and Lewis all in the final year of their contracts, Tuimoloau will be groomed to take over in 2026. Consider this a dynasty alert and tuck him away for safekeeping.  

• DE Kwity Paye – Quality depth with a little upside
• DE Laiatu Latu – High ceiling guy that can be picked up in later rounds
• DE Samson Ebukam – Injury sleeper
• DE Tyquan Lewis – Marginal impact
• DE JT Tuimoloau – Dynasty jewel
• DT DeForest Buckner – Stud DT1
• DT Grover Stewart – Solid second starter
• DT Neville Gallimore – No impact expected
• DT Adetomiwa Adebawore – No impact
• DT Tim Smith – Developmental rookie

Indianapolis Colts Linebackers

Indianapolis loves to throw first and second day draft capital at the edge position, but they refuse to make a serious commitment at linebacker. They won't even spend money to keep the good players they develop from late-round picks. The last time this team used an early pick at linebacker was 2018 when they selected Shaquille Leonard in round two.

The Colts do, however, have a great track record of turning late-round picks into NFL-caliber starters and IDP factors. The list is fairly long and rather distinguished by IDP standards. The most recent additions are Bobby Okereke, who was a third-round pick, E.J. Speed was a fifth, as was Anthony Walker, and Zaire Franklin was taken in the seventh. All of these guys became productive starters. The only one to get a second contract with the team is Franklin, and that came before his breakout in 2022, so he was still cheap.  

The important point for fantasy managers is that there is always an Indianapolis linebacker at or near the top of the rankings. In 2024, there were two. Franklin led the league with 172 combined tackles. Surprisingly, that was not even the best tackle production of his career. That came in 2023 when he totaled 179. The three sacks and seven takeaways Franklin recorded last year, however, were career highs, helping reach the number one spot in the rankings for the first time.

It was his first time at the top, but it may not be Franklin's last. He became a starter in 2022. Over the last three seasons, Franklin has finished 4th, 2nd, and 1st. He is an elite tier-1 target and a prime candidate to be the first defensive player off the board on draft day.  

Speed was the second-best fantasy linebacker on his own team in 2024, yet his 93 solo tackles were tied for the third most in the league. With Speed gone, the Colts have a hole to fill. They elected not to address it in free agency or the draft. That tells us it will be a promotion from within, and points to Jaylon Carlies as the successor.

The Colts have been fielding two full-time linebackers over the last several years. Until last season, Cincinnati did not while under Anurumo. For most of his time there, Anarumo had one linebacker on the field for virtually every snap, while the second one worked about 75 or 80% of the time. The Bengals went with two backers over 90% of the time last year, so it's not as if Anarumo is unwilling to do so. Considering that Carlies is a former college safety and has plus cover skills for a linebacker, there is a pretty good chance he will stay on the field. Maybe the best thing about Carlies is that not many managers seem to know who he is or what value he could have. That makes him a possible late-round steal.

Indianapolis is traditionally thin at linebacker. Nothing will change for this year. Former Bengal Joe Bachie knows the scheme and will likely be the next man up if someone is hurt. Segun Olibi is listed as the starting strong-side backer, but the team may not use three linebackers more than a handful of plays each game.

• MLB Zaire Franklin – Elite tier LB1
• WLB Jaylon Carlies – Unproven but has a high ceiling
• SLB Segun Olubi – Injury sleeper with limited potential
• MLB Joe Bachie – Injury sleeper
• SLB Cameron McGrone – No impact 
• WLB Hunter Wohler – Converted safety, developmental rookie 
• MLB Liam Anderson – No impact

Indianapolis Colts Defensive Backs

Safety Nick Cross was one of the biggest surprises to come out of last season. The 2022 third-round pick came into the league with big expectations but was not ready for prime time. Cross was benched in the middle of his second game. His next start was week 15 of 2023. He's missed one snap in the 20 games since.

Cross is a natural strong safety, yet the previous coaching staff kept trying to play him at free. When they finally put him where he belonged, Cross lit up the box scores like a pinball machine. He finished second among the league's defensive backs in both tackles with 87 and assists at 59. His playmaking ability came out as well, with four takeaways and a sack. Those totals made him the fantasy game's number two defensive back.

The organization brought in Cam Bynum to replace Julian Blackmon as the other starting safety. The problem is that he is also a strong safety, having been the starter at that position in Minnesota for the last three years. Something has to give here. What we know for certain is that both players have huge potential. Cross's value was on display last year. In 2023, Bynum totaled 93-43-.5 with 5 takeaways for the Vikings.

The general consensus is that Bynum will move to free safety, leaving Cross in the sweet spot. While I concur and expect that to be the plan going in, anything can happen here. Whoever ends up with the box safety opportunities will likely be a top ten, if not a top five at the position. Cross is the early favorite, but be ready to shift gears late in the summer, just in case

The team's depth chart shows Rodney Thomas II as the backup at free safety with Daniel Scott behind the starter at strong. The reality is that Thomas is a veteran and would probably be the next man up in the event of an injury to either starter. The fourth-year pro is a serviceable option for Indianapolis, but has shown no IDP prowess when called upon in the past.

Consistent fantasy production from the corner position is hard to find. Kenny Moore II is one of the few we can count on. He joined the Colts as an undrafted rookie in 2017 and has been a mainstay in their lineup since his second year. If not for an injury-shortened 2019, Moore would have at least 78 combined stops in six of the last seven seasons. He's not what we might call a ballhawk, but he contributes some big plays every year. Moore has 8 career sacks, 20 interceptions, 4 forced fumbles, 2 recoveries, and 4 scores on his resume. Three of those touchdowns have come in the last two seasons.

Moore was the fantasy game's number two corner in 2021, when he led the position with career-highs in solo tackles at 82 (14 more than anyone else), turnovers with 5, and passes defended at 13. The only time, other than 2019, that Moore fell short of the top 20 was in 2022 when he was moved from his traditional slot role to the outside. The new coaching staff is unlikely to make that mistake. Moore landed at number twelve on the corner list in 2024. He probably won't be the fantasy game's top corner this season either, but no one is more likely to finish in the top twelve.

JuJu Brents was a second-round pick of the Colts in 2023. Thus far, he has been a monumental disappointment due to injuries. Brents appeared in eight games as a rookie and one in 2024. The team is not yet ready to write him off, but they could not afford to risk counting on him this year. Instead, they landed Charvarius Ward, who was arguably the best corner available in free agency, and Corey Ballentine to provide a layer of veteran depth.

Ward was a non-factor for fantasy managers over his four years in Kansas City. That changed when he moved to San Francisco. Ward made his first serious fantasy contribution in 2022, going 59-28-0 with 11 passes defended and 3 turnovers. He jumped all the way to third in 2023 at 56-16-0 with 6 takeaways, 23 passes defended, and a score. Ward's numbers were down last year as he battled injuries and personal tragedy. We know he is capable and that Colts corners have given us good production in recent years. With so much change to consider, figureing out what to expect from Ward statistically in 2025, is a crap shoot.

2023 seventh-round pick Jaylon Jones came on strong late in his rookie season and earned the starting role in year two. All he did last season was lead the league's corners in tackles and finish third at the position in IDP rankings. What we don't yet know is how highly the new defensive staff thinks of him. The signing of Ronald Darby could have been aimed at competition for Jones. Darby is no longer in the mix, but that does not ensure an easy path to the lineup for Jones. Instead, his competition could come from rookie Justin Walley.

There will be good fantasy value among the Colts' defensive backs. All five projected starters have the potential to be significant contributors. Chances are that at least two of them will fall short. It's anyone's guess which two.

• SS Nick Cross – Quality DB1 with a little risk
• FS Cam Bynum – Target as depth with sleeper upside
• FS Rodney Thomas II – No impact expected
• SS Daniel Scott – No impact 
• SC Kenny Moore II – Dependable CB2 with some upside
• CB Jaylon Jones – High ceiling, low floor
• CB Charvarious Ward – High ceiling, mediocre floor
• CB JuJu Brents – Deep sleeper at best
• CB Justin Walley – Rookie corner rule could come into play
• CB Corey Ballentine – No impact expected

That does it for part 14 of this year's preseason offering. The Jaguars are next on the menu.   

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