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An Overview of the New England Patriots Defense
The Patriots have been mired in a rebuilding process since before the departure of Bill Belichick. All those years of winning kept them picking late in the draft, and they mortgaged the future salary cap for win-now free agents. The rebuild initially focused on the offense, so after a surprisingly solid 2023 on the defensive side, the organization largely neglected the unit last offseason. The result was a dismal 2024 defensively.
The 2024 Patriots struggled versus the run, finishing 23rd in yards allowed. They were dead last in sacks with 28, and only Jacksonville forced fewer turnovers. All that added up to 21 teams allowing fewer points. New England did manage a solid sixth-place finish against the pass, but that was largely because they faced the 10th fewest attempts.
New England continued to bolster the offense in the draft, using their first four picks on that side of the ball before picking up a safety and a defensive tackle in round four, and a pass rusher in the fifth. They did, however, emerge from salary cap purgatory to spend heavily on defense in free agency, signing at least four quality starters and several other contributors. They are not ready for a return to the Super Bowl, but the defense should be good enough to keep them in a lot of games.
New England Patriots Defensive Linemen
The gem of free agency for New England was Harold Landry III. The former Titans' star was arguably the best edge defender on the market. New England tends to utilize multiple fronts, shifting back and forth between 3-4 and 4-3 looks. Landry's ability to play from a two or three-point stance makes him a great fit as a player who will not have to come off the field regardless of the call. He excels as a run defender and has 41 career sacks over six seasons, including at least nine in each of the last three.
From the fantasy perspective, Landry is rock solid and exceptionally consistent. Except for 2022, when he missed the season due to an injury, he has recorded at least 42 solo tackles and 21 assists in every year since 2019. Landry landed among the top 20 in five consecutive seasons, with top-12 finishes in four of them, including last year when he was seventh at the position. About the only thing Landry doesn't produce is turnovers. He has seven career takeaways, with just two in the last four seasons. There is always some risk associated with a player changing teams. I don't see the move having much negative impact here. The one concern I do have is the lack of a supporting cast. On the other hand, Landry didn't have much help for most of his time in Tennessee either.
The coaching staff filled the void on the edge last season by having Keion White shift outside to start opposite Anfernee Jennings. Between them, the duo accounted for a mere seven and a half sacks. White was adequate as a pass rusher, tying Detrich Wise for the team lead in sacks with five. He did a fine job of setting the edge against the run, posting a solid 56 total stops. One of the questions we hope to answer when we get to training camp is what his role will be this year.
White could continue to see time on the outside, but he was not drafted to play there. He was moved outside out of necessity because he is the most athletic and the best pass rusher among the team's interior linemen. Between the addition of K'Lavon Chaisson and the departure of Wise and Davon Godchaux, I look for White to shift back to his natural tackle spot. His fantasy value will, in most formats, depend largely on his positional designation. As an edge defender, his 31-24-5 from last year made him borderline roster worthy. Those same numbers, if designated as a tackle, would make him a solid second starter for us.
As a first-round pick of the Jaguars in 2020, Chaisson has been a bust thus far in his career. His first four seasons produced a combined 48 tackles, 24 assists, and 5 sacks. He spent last year with the Raiders, where he showed signs of life at 19-13-5 with a couple of turnovers. Chaisson will compete with Jennings for the starting job. Chances are, the two will end up sharing time.
Jennings was also drafted in 2020, taken by the Patriots in the third round. With four career sacks, he has been a disappointment as a pass rusher but played well against the run in his two years as a starter. Jennings totaled 49 solos and 17 assists in 2023, numbers that would have made him a factor if he had kicked in just a few big plays. Last season, he piled up 78 combined stops with two and a half sacks and a forced fumble, which was enough to get him on many rosters late in the season as managers were scrambling to cover bye weeks and injuries. While Jennings is not a long-term answer for the Patriots, he could see the bulk of the action opposite Landry this year and provide serviceable depth, or even a decent starter in tackle-heavy formats.
With Christian Barmore sidelined by a health issue (blood clots) and White moved outside, Daniel Ekuale, Davon Godchaux, Jeremiah Pharms Jr., and Detrich Wise made up the tackle rotation. Of those players, only Pharms returns. Barmore is healthy, and the team signed Milton Williams and Khyiris Tonga to fill the positions. Managers in tackle-required leagues could find good value here.
Barmore was quiet over his first two seasons. In 2023, he broke out with 64 combined tackles, 8 sacks, a forced fumble, and 6 batted passes. That was good enough for a top-five rank. Expectations were high last summer, but his hopes were dashed when he was shut down before the season. His 2023 numbers were not a mirage. In the three games Barmore played late last year, he put up six tackles and a sack on limited snaps. The year off will have him out of sight and out of mind for most managers, making Barmore a likely top-twelve tackle that can possibly be picked up late.
Tonga is expected to play the nose tackle position and is unlikely to make much noise in the box scores. Williams, on the other hand, has potential. Even though he was stuck behind some outstanding and highly drafted players in Philadelphia, Williams carved out a role. The numbers were never enough to get him noticed in fantasy circles, but he was rather productive in the tackle columns on a per-snap basis and recorded 11 sacks. Williams projects as a starter here and could be a pleasant surprise.
- Edge Harold Landry III – Dependable starter with top-twelve value
- Edge Anfernee Jennings – Marginal value, much better in tackle-heavy scoring
- Edge K'Lavon Chaisson – Marginal value
- Edge Bradyn Swinson – Rookie project
- Edge/DT Keion White - Value is linked to positional designation
- DT Christian Barmore – Strong DT1 prospect
- DT Milton Williams – Sleeper with high upside
- DT Joshua Farmer – Rookie backup
- DT Jeremiah Pharms Jr. – No impact expected
- DT Khyiris Tonga – No impact expected
New England Patriots Linebackers
The Patriots lost Ja'Whaun Bentley in week two last year. From that point on, their second level was a problem. Jahlani Tavai took on a bigger role for the rest of the season and was adequate. Raekwon McMillan got a look for a short time before being replaced by Christian Ellis, who had a big role starting in week seven. Beginning in week six, Sione Takitaki got on the field for a few snaps each game. The Patriots even went with a big nickel look at times, with Marte Mapu getting some time at the linebacker level. The final result is that no one consistently played more than about 75% of the snaps per game. This is nothing new with the Patriots, who are notorious for changing the roles of their defenders on a near-weekly basis. For that reason, it was disappointing when the team inked Robert Spillane.
In 2023, Spillane finished ninth in the linebacker rankings, moving up to fifth last year. He played every snap in 31 of 34 games with Las Vegas, reaching double-digit fantasy points in 26 of them while falling below 8 just once. On top of excellent tackle numbers, Spillane contributed 5 sacks, 7 turnovers, and 11 passes defended. Now we have to be concerned about his snap count and consistency. There is, however, reason for optimism.
We can start with the fact that several of the players who saw action last year are no longer with the team. This includes Bentley, who led the group in snaps over the last few seasons. Additionally, the rest of their linebacker room is quite average. There is also the fact that Spillane is, by far, the team's best coverage linebacker. Finally, there's the consideration that it has been a long time since the Patriots had a linebacker with the skill set to excel in a full-time role. We are talking about New England, so there is still a fair risk, but I am not giving up on Spillane by any stretch. There is a good chance he will break the trend and play full-time. Even if that is not the case, at 80% participation, he would still be a dependable starter for us.
Outside of Spillane, no linebacker on this squad is roster-worthy at this point. Christian Ellis is productive on a per-snap basis, but he saw more than 68% of the action in just two games a year ago. Jahlani Tavai is more of a two-down guy who struggles in coverage. Jack Gibbens, who came over from Tennessee in free agency, might be the next most complete player in the linebacker room, and he is a career backup.
- ILB Robert Spillane – Dependable LB1 or excellent LB2 if he plays full time.
- ILB Christian Elliss – Injury sleeper
- ILB Jahlani Tavai – Marginal impact
- ILB Jack Gibbens – Injury Sleeper
- ILB Monty Rice – No impact
New England Patriots Defensive Backs
The Patriots' secondary returns mostly intact. The only new face is at corner where Carlton Davis III replaces Jonathan Jones. Davis joins Christian Gonzalez and slot corner Marcus Jones to create a formidable trio. Entering his third season, Gonzalez is emerging as a clear CB1 for the Patriots. He is only 22 years old, yet is already showing signs of becoming one of the league's premier cover men. Gonzalez is a physical corner with good size and the versatility to work in any coverage. His biggest asset in fantasy terms is his willingness to support the run. At 51-9-0 with 3 turnovers, 11 pass breakups, and a score, Gonzalez slipped into the CB2 range in 2024. The rookie corner rule suggests that his tackle totals will slide while his splash play production goes up. Considering his physical nature and aggressiveness, he could be an exception to that rule and see his numbers bump up a bit across the board.
Davis has served as a number one in the past and is a strong number two for New England. He gave us useful numbers early in his career, exceeding 50 solo stops in three of his first five seasons while adding 18 or more pass breakups in two of them. His stats have slipped over the last couple of years, falling below a level of usefulness, but if he comes out of the gate fast, know that it is not a fluke.
Marcus Jones played part-time as a rookie in 2022 and missed nearly all of 2023 with an injury. Jones opened year three as the starter in the slot. He did nothing special early on, but starting in week six, his numbers jumped. Jones had at least six tackles in four of his final six games before missing the last three with an injury. It may mean nothing, but stash it in your memory in case he comes out of the gate hot.
Year-to-year consistency has been elusive for strong safety Kyle Dugger. If you catch him on a good year, he is an every-week starter. In the bad years, he can be rather frustrating. The secret seems to be having him in odd-numbered years. Dugger had a quiet rookie season in 2020, working part-time in situational packages. In 2021, he put up 92 stops with 5 turnovers and 5 passes defended for a top 15. Dugger missed a couple of games in 2022 and played through nagging injuries most of the season. His production was way down. In 2023, he was back on track with 107 combined stops, a sack and a half, 3 turnovers, and 7 passes defended for a top 10. His 2024 was up and down with six good games, four horrible ones, and 4 others that he was unable to play. If the pattern holds, this could be his best year yet. If you're not superstitious, just approach him as a hit or miss target with considerable potential.
Jabrill Peppers closes out the starting lineup. At 217 pounds, he should be a punishing enforcer over the middle, but that is not his game. Instead, he is a rangy, dependable free safety with good cover skills and decent big-play production. He's a good open-field tackler who will get the ball carrier to the ground. Those things are good for his team. Unfortunately, he has been wildly inconsistent throughout his career. He has value as a bye-week flyer with the potential to have a big game at any given time, but Peppers is not a player we want in our lineups every week.
- SS Kyle Dugger – Hit or miss player with enough value to be a third starter
- FS Jabrill Peppers – Consistently inconsistent in the box scores
- SS Jaylinn Hawkins – Injury sleeper with limited potential
- FS Marcus Epps – No impact expected
- CB Christian Gonzalez – Worth a last-round pick as depth with upside
- CB Carlton Davis III – Worth keeping an eye on early in the season
- CB Marcus Jones – Watchlist deep sleeper
- CB Craig Woodson – Developmental rookie
- CB Marcellas Dial Jr. – No impact
The Patriots are in the books. On to finish out the East with the Jets.
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