A big part of dynasty (and fantasy football as a whole) is taking a stand on whether we believe what we have seen will continue. This could be from week to week, year to year, or in dynasty, from a previous-to-future general sense. By this point in the season, taking stock of your roster and team situation is key.
Historical Odds
Over the offseason, one historical project examined the impact of season starts on playoff odds in dynasty leagues. Specifically, the analysis was done during the first month of head-to-head results.
Let's start with the quick good news and 3-0 teams. They have a 91% chance of making the playoffs in the sample, which increases to 97% if they advance to 4-0. Even if they lose this week and fall to 3-1, they are still 82% playoff bets. In short, this is not a critical week for those teams in the macro view. That should be of no surprise as many good teams get off to quality starts, whether in the NFL or in a dynasty.
Next, 2-1 teams. Currently, they have a 68% chance of making the playoffs. With a win, they will elevate to 3-1 and an 82% chance, as mentioned above. The key point is that dropping to 2-2 does not produce 50% odds. Instead, the result is 43%. These are all six-team playoff structures and 12-team leagues for the record. The explanation is likely that 4-0 and 3-1 teams at this juncture are so favored to secure many of the playoff spots that 2-2 teams are closer to the 1-3 teams in terms of odds. By historical probabilities, the 2-1 teams this week have the most to gain and lose by their result.
The 1-2 teams have little on the line in Week 4. Their 35% odds today rise to only 43% with a 2-2 record and drop to 23% with a loss, resulting in a 1-3 record. In short, 1-2 teams are not in a great spot, but their 1-3 odds are not much worse. One of the key takeaways from this study was that a 1-3 start is not a death knell and should not be a time to fold up camp and look ahead to the next year.
Finally, the 0-3 teams. This is a critical week. At 5% odds today, they rise to 23% with a win to a 1-3 record. However, it drops to 3% with a loss. At 0-4, that is a legitimate moment to question the current season and know you are a substantial historical outlier to make the playoffs. Also, a much longer bet than even 1-3 teams. Also, know that probably half of the playoff spots, if not more, are near-locks for the other teams.
Another aspect to consider is that at 0-4, there is less schedule luck (misfortune) at play compared to once or twice going up against the highest-scoring team in the league or being a hard-luck loser early on. Getting a single win in the opening month is the minimum threshold for optimism.
Diagnosis: Further Analysis
Continue reading this content with a ELITE subscription.
An ELITE subscription is required to access content for Dynasty leagues. If this league is not a Dynasty league, you can edit your leagues here.