The Eagles soundly crushed any hopes of a three-peat in February, but it wouldn't shock anyone if, in just a few short months, Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs were to go to their sixth Super Bowl in seven years. Mahomes has been consistently great since he became the starter in Kansas City in 2018, but his on-field dominance hasn't translated to fantasy dominance the last couple of seasons.
Real Life vs. Fantasy
Mahomes hasn't ranked outside the top-five quarterbacks in expected points added (EPA) since he took the league by storm in 2018, including the last two years. However, his adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) has declined considerably over the last couple of seasons, with career lows in both 2023 and 2024, respectively.
| SEASON | EPA | EPA RK | ANY/A | ANY/A RK | FPTS/GM | QB FPPG RK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 98.3 | 5 | 6.0 | 19 | 17.6 | 11 |
| 2023 | 92.1 | 3 | 6.3 | 15 | 17.9 | 13 |
| 2022 | 132.8 | 1 | 7.9 | 2 | 24.7 | 2 |
| 2021 | 108.3 | 4 | 7.1 | 9 | 21.3 | 5 |
| 2020 | 138.1 | 1 | 8.3 | 2 | 24.8 | 5 |
| 2019 | 97.3 | 2 | 8.4 | 2 | 21.4 | 4 |
| 2018 | 126.0 | 1 | 8.9 | 1 | 26.8 | 1 |
In short, while Mahomes has continued to play extremely well, his passing efficiency has dipped the last couple of seasons, which has consequently led to disappointing fantasy finishes. After having been a top-five quarterback in fantasy points per game in each of his first five years as a starter, Mahomes has finished outside of the top 10 quarterbacks in each of the last two seasons.
Deep Passing
The most noticeable area where Mahomes has regressed in recent years has been in the deep passing game. This is, in part, a leaguewide phenomenon and not limited to only Mahomes and the Chiefs, as NFL defenses have utilized Cover-3 and Cover-4 alignments at increasingly high rates since 2022.
But even so, Mahomes, in particular, has struggled with the deep ball in the last two seasons. His deep ball completion rates (DEEP COMP %) have decreased to under 30 percent in each of the last two years, and it can't just be blamed on poor receiver play.
| SEASON | CLEAN PKT RK | CLEAN PKT % | DEEP COMP RK | DEEP COMP % | DEEP CATCHABLE RK | DEEP CATCHABLE % | DROP % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 13 | 70% | 34 | 27% | 26 | 41% | 5% |
| 2023 | 7 | 71% | 33 | 28% | 22 | 41% | 7% |
| 2022 | 1 | 75% | 10 | 40% | 13 | 60% | 5% |
| 2021 | 9 | 72% | 21 | 37% | 19 | 54% | 5% |
| 2020 | 10 | 76% | 22 | 38% | 25 | 49% | 5% |
| 2019 | 16 | 72% | 3 | 49% | N/A | N/A | 5% |
| 2018 | 12 | 77% | 11 | 40% | N/A | N/A | 5% |
Mahomes' deep ball catchable pass rate (DEEP CATCHABLE %) on his throws has been just 41 percent in 2023 and 2024, both career lows. And while drops have been a factor, the rate of dropped passes which can be blamed on his intended receivers has stayed more or less consistent at 5 percent over the span of his relatively young NFL career.
So, what's to blame for Mahomes' regression in the deep areas of the field? Some of it can be attributed to Kansas City's struggles to protect its superstar quarterback.
Protection
The Eagles' shellacking of Mahomes in Super Bowl LIX laid bare the issues with the Chiefs' offensive line. Although Kansas City's offensive line seemingly played fairly well overall last season (eighth in pass block win rate), the number of quarterback pressures on Mahomes in 2024 tells a different story.
Mahomes' stellar 61 percent pressured completion rate (PRESS COMP %) last year masked a lot of the protection issues. His 23 percent pressure rate per dropback (QB PRESS %) in each of the last two seasons has been the 12th-highest in the league, and his 2.3-second average time in the pocket (PKT TIME) in 2024 ranked just 25th among quarterbacks.
| SEASON | QB PRESS % | QB PRESS RK | PRESS COMP % | PRESS COMP RK | PKT TIME | PKT TIME RK | IAY/ATT | IAY/ATT RK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 23% | 12 | 61% | 6 | 2.3 | 25 | 6.2 | 34 |
| 2023 | 23% | 12 | 54% | 18 | 2.5 | 8 | 6.5 | 30 |
| 2022 | 19% | 20 | 38% | 20 | 2.6 | 2 | 7.2 | 23 |
| 2021 | 22% | 20 | 41% | 23 | 2.4 | 11 | 7.3 | 24 |
| 2020 | 22% | 20 | 43% | 11 | 2.6 | 3 | 8.4 | 13 |
| 2019 | 20% | 25 | 45% | 5 | 2.5 | 16 | 8.8 | 10 |
| 2018 | 34% | 1 | 41% | 12 | 2.4 | 6 | 9.1 | 6 |
The high pressure rate and low time in the pocket likely both contributed heavily to Mahomes failing to connect on many of his deep pass attempts. This combination also likely led to Mahomes attempting far fewer deep shots than in years past, as his intended air yards per pass attempt (IAY/PA) dipped below 7.0 for the first time in 2023 and stayed there in 2024.
It also didn't help that his most-targeted pass-catcher in the last couple of years wasn't a wide receiver, but rather a tight end (albeit an All-Pro and future Hall-of-Fame tight end). For as good as Travis Kelce has been, the Chiefs' pass-catchers as a whole have been lacking over this span.
Receiving Talent (or Lack Thereof)
Many expected the Chiefs' offense to take a step back in 2022 after they traded Tyreek Hill to the Dolphins the offseason prior. Surprisingly enough, Mahomes still led all quarterbacks in EPA that season despite his best wide receivers being JuJu Smith-Schuster and Marquez Valdes-Scantling.
However, the lack of wide receiver talent eventually took its toll as defenses adjusted to forcing Mahomes to beat them three yards at a time in suffocating fashion. To his credit, he did just that with perfect drives of high-percentage shorter throws.
Still, Kelce can only do so much to carry the offense on his back at his age, and Kansas City has been well aware of this fact for some time. They first tried to remedy this by drafting Rashee Rice in the second round of the 2023 NFL Draft. His presence and increased usage over the second half of his rookie season were critical in their run up to and eventual victory in Super Bowl LVIII.
The Chiefs further bolstered their wide receiver room by signing Marquise Brown last offseason and subsequently drafting Xavier Worthy in the first round of the 2024 NFL Draft. Unfortunately for them, Brown suffered a major injury last preseason, and Rice suffered a season-ending injury in Week 4. Worthy came on down the stretch, but the Chiefs utilized him often in the short and intermediate areas of the field following the loss of Rice rather than his initially intended role as a deep threat.
His average depth of target (aDOT) of 9.2 yards ranked just 72nd among wide receivers, and when Worthy did get open deep, Mahomes missed him on multiple throws of 20-plus yards downfield. These misses can be attributed to the aforementioned lack of protection and time in the pocket and would've added roughly 300 yards and five touchdowns to Mahomes and Worthy's season totals.
2025 Outlook
So, the big question is: can we expect things to improve for Mahomes and the Chiefs' offense in 2025? There are two big "ifs", but if those improve, then Mahomes could rise from the ashes and bounce back in a big way this coming season.
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