Targets and goal-line carries are the lifeblood of quality fantasy production at running back. A starting role and a high-volume carry total are nice, but when those touches happen away from the end zone, they become empty-calorie opportunities. In short, they do not mean much. However, being a starter and a high-volume back generally points to more targets and goal-line chances, which can lead to high-scoring fantasy plays. This weekly feature analyzes all 32 NFL depth charts for underrated and overrated running backs.
Note: See the table of all teams' HLO rankings at the bottom of this article.
The Good
49ers
San Francisco has been the most consistently good HLO team over the opening month. They have finished in the top 10 every week. They are second overall in HLO on the season and have produced at No.4 overall in those situations. Christian McCaffrey is not seeing the monster workload of previous seasons, but is still optimizing his touches and moments with goal-line and receiving work. Expect Kaelon Black to benefit heavily if McCaffrey were to miss time, but with a downturn in HLO prowess.
Bears
While not likely to be sustaining greatness, Chicago had one of the elite games in recent memory for running back HLO in Week 4 against the Jets. The Bears controlled the game with their rushing attack, with nine goal-line attempts and another four targets. Kyle Monangai was the closer and had almost as many rushes (30) as the Jets had plays (32). It was the perfect storm, and their No.1 weekly finish was largely de-optimized for fantasy as D'Andre Swift had a fumble in-game (along with a tepid performance) and Monangai was on plenty of benches. The Bears do have No.13 and No.8 weekly HLO finishes before this week. Should a clarified backfield present itself, Chicago's running backs have league-winning upside.
Rams
The Kyren Williams concern that Blake Corum would impinge on his upside or eventually take his starting job has always been overblown. Williams has solidly been the starter this season, and the Rams' HLO standing has never been better. Notoriously a low HLO offense in recent years, the Rams have No.2 and No.5 finishes the past two weeks and added No.16 back in Week 1. The Rams have been a bottom-five HLO team during the Kyren Williams era. This unlocks massive upside for Williams just as the Rams are getting healthier with Puka Nacua back and them finding their offensive groove after a clunky season start.