Here we are. The offseason is quickly coming to an end, and the regular season will be here before you know it. But first, we have the all-important training camp. Rookies for multiple teams have already reported to work, and by the middle of next week, all 32 teams will be on the field in full force.
We've spent a lot of time using the Notebook to take in-depth looks at the shifting circumstances that impact player values every year. Now it's time to regroup, take stock, and reset the roles and competitions that will unfold over the next month.
For those of you who have been diligently following all offseason, this will be a recap. For those who didn't? No better time than the present to start getting ahead of the competition.
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This week, we're reviewing new faces in new places. We started on Monday with Backfields in Motion. Tuesday, it was Receiving Assets Getting Fresh Starts. Today, we'll look at . . .
Field Generals on the March
NFL offenses run through the quarterback position. Even in cases where we're not banking on the individual under center as our starter, we're counting on them to fuel the fantasy fortunes of teammates we're investing in this summer. Quarterback competitions aren't only about quarterback rankings -- they reshape the fantasy outlook for entire offenses.
Murray to the Moon in Minnesota . . . With a Caveat
When Kyler Murray signed with the Vikings for a mere $1.3 million in March (the Cardinals owe him another $35.8 million this year), the thinking was that he had the inside track to be the starter. All the signs were pointing in that direction, even as he spent the offseason splitting reps with incumbent starter J.J. McCarthy as part of an open competition.
But public accounts of the team's final minicamp sessions created the impression that McCarthy was making strides and Murray was struggling. NFL Network's Ian Rapoport reported on Tuesday that the competition could run all the way to the start of the regular season.
While that obviously creates considerable intrigue as training camp opens, multiple local observers have told me that if the season were starting today, Murray would likely be the starter.
We'll see if McCarthy can change that.
Assuming he beats out McCarthy, Murray will have the luxury of working with Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, Jauan Jennings, and T.J. Hockenson. Add that to his rushing ability, and the 29-year-old certainly could find his way into the weekly QB1 mix.
My QB17 ranking for Murray mirrors his current Average Draft Position (ADP). As we gain clarity on the starting assignment this summer, expectations will shift. If the ADP doesn't rise as the role becomes more secure, Murray drafters will benefit from the discount.
Another Starter with Legs in Miami
When new Dolphins head coach Jeff Hafley and GM Jon-Eric Sullivan both arrived from Green Bay, it was no surprise they went after Packers backup Malik Willis in free agency.
Willis has made the most of limited chances the past two seasons. In three games playing at least 80 percent of Green Bay's snaps, he averaged 23.3 fantasy points, seven carries, nearly 60 rushing yards, and a rushing touchdown -- a pace that would top 100 carries over 17 games.
His 6.2 yards-per-carry mark over 11 appearances would rank fourth among QBs with 100-plus dropbacks the past two seasons, and his scramble and explosive-run rates would lead all passers.
Dolphins OC Bobby Slowik danced around the subject when asked about Willis, but the team didn't bet big on him without valuing what his legs bring to the offense.
Willis' passing was sharp in Green Bay too -- 70-of-89 for 972 yards, six touchdowns, zero picks -- but questions about Miami's supporting cast on a rebuilding team keep him at a conservative QB20 in my rankings.
Still, quarterbacks who threaten 100 rushing attempts don't need to be elite passers to become elite fantasy options. Willis' legs matter more than his ADP suggests, and as QB21 in Round 10, he's a cheap bet with real upside.