Footballguys Mock Draft #13 Auction, 12 Team PPR

AUCTION DETAILS:

• $200 of auction dollars were available to all 12 teams
• Players were nominated in a rotation cycle beginning with team 1 through team 10 and back to team 1 repeating the rotation again until all 12 teams filled their 20-man roster.
• 15 second timer upon nomination was used to determine the winning bid. The timer was also 15 seconds for each subsequent bid
• Teams had 40 seconds to nominate a player when it was their turn in the rotation.

THE ROTATION ORDER

1. Jeff Haseley
2. Andy Hicks
3. Matt Bitonti
4. Mark Wimer
5. Dan Hindery
6. Daniel Simpkins
7. Jeff Tefertiller
8. Chad Parsons
9. Sigmund Bloom
10. Matt Harmon
11. Justin Howe
12. Matt Waldman

Overall Strategy: 

Balanced approach

Evaluation

Haseley took a patient approach and waited awhile before securing his first winning bid. T.Y. Hilton was the 19^th player auctioned and Haseley’s bid of $33 was enough to get it done. A potential Top 10 wide receiver at a reasonable price is always a good start. Haseley’s next two winning bids focused on the running back position with winning bids for Ameer Abdullah and C.J. Anderson at $27 and $42 respectively. Anderson was in the price range of other top running backs in this draft but he slightly overpaid for Abdullah. Melvin Gordon was secured for $22 a mere four picks later and is being drafted at a higher ADP in standard drafts. Gordon will be the RB1 in San Diego from day 1, while Abdullah will be part of a committee to start – although he may take over lead back duties as the season develops. Haseley balanced out the remainder of his roster and found some nice value. He secured the quarterback position with a potential Top 10 and a potential Top 15 for a total of $11. All in all a solid draft for Haseley, looks like he may have built a contender. 

Overall Strategy: 

Top 10 RB and WR

Evaluation

Hicks also waited patiently before securing the winning bid for his first player, Matt Forte, the 15^th player auctioned for a winning bid of $38. His next two winning bids were also for running backs, Alfred Morris for $18 and Melvin Gordon for $22. The running back position locked down, Hicks was able to focus on balancing out his roster. He did make one more high-priced acquisition with the winning bid for Jordy Nelson (draft held prior to injury) at $41, a good price for a Top 5 wide receiver. Hicks did a nice job accumulating quarterbacks by securing the winning bids for three solid starters at a total cost of $15. His travels to the value section were largely fruitful, although I may have passed on Cordarelle Patterson at a price greater than $2. Looks like Hicks has built a solid team heading into 2015 and there are no glaring weaknesses.  

1. Explain your strategy going into the auction

After the first staff Auction Mock Draft where I got 3 players within the first 7 or so names I decided to sit back this time, but I had to get one of my top 7 running backs and one of my top 7 wide receivers. I would hunt for value outside these 2 players and fill out the roster around the top 2 guys and the value players. The first 14 players were nominated, including most of the big names and then came Matt Forte, one of the 3 remaining running backs that would have satisfied my pre auction plan. I was prepared to go to $40 and got him at $38. Plan A achieved. The remaining top receivers went quickly except for my last one in Jordy Nelson. By now I had 3 running backs as Alfred Morris and Melvin Gordon went way below my price for them and I feel I got considerable value for my top 3 backs. Now I had to go all in to get Jordy Nelson, who was my 3rd rated receiver. His price was well within my expectations and the 2nd part of my main plan was achieved. Carlos Hyde was another value running back and with 4 of my top 16 backs I only had to spend 45% of my budget. Add in Jordy Nelson and I still had quite a bit of money to get my choice of the other positions.

2. You won Jordy Nelson with a $41 bid, the highest you spent on a player. His injury occurred one day after this took place. Explain what you would do to fill the void of a star player on your roster.

To anyone who has drafted already and has Jordy Nelson (or Kelvin Benjamin), I can sympathize. Unlike this auction, where I regret not spending an extra dollar or 2 to get Davante Adams, which was in my plans once I landed Nelson, you can recover from the loss of a key individual with hard work and a little bit of luck. For starters if a star player is lost you have to ask yourself who, if anyone can step in. Footballguys have a lot of What would happen if.... was lost for the season articles to help in this regard, but also other great articles like the Jordy Nelson article soon after his injury 

Analyze the team dynamics of the player lost. Can the backup players be productive or will the work be spread around? In this case I feel that Davante Adams is the best bet, but a punt on Jeff Janis, Ty Mongomery or Jared Abbrederis wouldn't go astray either. Aaron Rodgers can make a star out of any young receiver if they are good enough. Apart from that be an early player on the waiver wire in the early weeks of the season. This is a very productive option to get a star or 2 that surprises everyone eg Justin Forsett last year. Another way would be to sacrifice a high draft pick to get 2 very good players. Hopefully you drafted with depth and have a player to cover eg the Jordy Nelson owner could have drafted Davante Adams or the Kelvin Benjamin owner could have drafted Devin Funchess. Or they could have a young receiver ready to break out deep in their draft. If you have a player that another owner really covets, you can use this to your advantage . Look at 2 players on their roster you can grab. Some owners almost give up after a big injury. If you work hard to make something happen, you'll be surprised at how quickly you can turn it around.

3. What part of the auction is most critical to your team's draft success? Beginning, Middle or End? Explain your answer.

Without sounding like a fence sitter, each part of the draft is equally important. In the Beginning of an auction everyone has lots of money and some are reckless with it. Everyone wants the star players, but you will always have owners that overpay in this phase and take too many players. One owner here was left to get 15 $1 players. The beginning is an excellent time to take advantage of owners that are reckless. As long as you like a player, if you see another owner who is quickly spending money, bid them up a dollar or 2. You'd be surprised how often they will keep bidding. The adrenaline is running.

The middle part of the draft is where you should be on top of your game. A few owners will have no money. Some owners will get cute and won't have spent a penny. Some owners with money are full at a position. This is where you can get great value. With half of the bidders out of action on any player, you can take advantage and get half your squad here. Have a set price for every player and if the value is there, grab them. You can never not have enough good players.

The end is also vital. By now half the owners are desperately trying to fill rosters with cheap players and a couple of owners have way too much money and will end up spending $13 on a kicker at the end. The rest are perfectly poised.
In this draft the following players went for $3 or less: - Colin Kaepernick, Jay Cutler, Sam Bradford, Tre Mason, Bishop Sankey, Alfred Blue, Anquan Boldin, Pierre Garcon, Dwayne Bowe, Kenny Stills, Kyle Rudolph and Antonio Gates. For $40 you could have had them all. Before you make your final big bid in the middle part of the draft analyze which players are left and decide if you want quality from 8 players or 1. The auction is the perfect format to have depth at all positions for a minimal price. Don't spend big early, get key players and pay attention to what the other drafters are doing.

Matt Bitonti

Overall Strategy: 

Stud WR and balance

Evaluation

Bitonti pounced on the consensus WR1 and then sat on the sidelines for a bit. A $47 bid was enough to secure the services of Antonio Brown. Bitonti took a value approach to running back and quarterback while nicely balancing out his collection of wide receivers with mid-range and low-cost options. At least one pick at each of the positions could turn out to be a steal at the prices paid. Phillip Rivers for $4, Tevin Coleman at $6 and Markus Wheaton at $1 are all in line to outperform their price points. Rivers has Top 10 quarterback upside, Coleman could end up with the bulk of the work in Atlanta and Wheaton – whether he winds up as WR2 or WR3 in Pittsburgh – should produce nicely in what figures to be a high-powered offense. A very balanced draft for Bitonti, if some of his bargain bin values come through he will be in contention. 

Mark Wimer

Overall Strategy: 

Conservative approach

Evaluation

Wimer took a conservative approach with only one high-priced acquisition – Demaryius Thomas at $41. He found some nice values that he didn’t have to overpay for in Russell Wilson at $17, Joseph Randle at $22 and Nelson Agholor at $13. Wimer also loaded up on tight end by winning the rights to two potential Top 5’s at the position in Greg Olsen at $19 and Martellus Bennett at $17. I see value in the approach Wimer took and admire the discipline it takes to pull off sound auction bankroll management. However, if I’m only going to walk away with one high-priced stud, it had better be one virtually guaranteed of a Top 5 finish at their position barring injury. Thomas certainly brings the history and potential to the table, but a change in offensive philosophy could cause his numbers to take a dip. I think we can still pencil him in for a Top 10 finish at receiver, would just feel more comfortable with this roster structure with more of a lock as my highest-priced player. Wimer will spend the season hoping that his value picks produce in a big way to remain competitive.

Overall Strategy: 

Stud QB and Top 5 RB

Evaluation

Hindery locked up his quarterback early and wasn’t afraid to spend to do so. Andrew Luck was the sixth player auctioned and Hindery’s bid of $31 got the job done. He picked his spots from this point, spending up for two high-level running backs in DeMarco Murray and Eddie Lacy while choosing a value approach at wide receiver. Amari Cooper should outperform his price point of $19, but I’m a little concerned about Emmanuel Sanders at $25. Sanders was money for the Broncos in 2014 but a change in offensive philosophy points to his numbers taking a dip. Add in the fact that he has yet to play in the preseason and may not be ready until Week 1 and the dollars may have been better spent elsewhere. Another area of concern is the depth at the running back. There are some backs with very high-upside potential in the mix here, but we’re talking about unproven quantities in James White, Cameron Artis-Payne and Duke Johnson. At least one should hit, but I’d be a little more comfortable with more of a veteran presence. Hindery is locked and loaded at quarterback and RB1 and RB2, but if disaster strikes at one of those positions he will be left scratching his head. 

Daniel Simpkins

Overall Strategy: 

Balanced approach with strict money management

Evaluation

Simpkins was a conservative investor and the results could be a decent return on investment. His highest-priced player, Jeremy Hill, was secured with a winning bid of $32. Hill has a valid shot at a Top 10 RB season and was secured at a price less than Frank Gore ($36) and Lamar Miller ($33). At the running back position in total, Simpkins was able to lock up three potential Top 20 running backs without spending an arm and a leg. He was the winning bidder on a solid but unspectacular group of wide receivers and I’m a little concerned with his depth at the position. Simpkins will have to hope that Mike Wallace has a bounce-back season in Minnesota (I think he will) and Allen Robinson takes the proverbial leap forward.  Simpkins took a volume approach to his backup running backs and has a potential steal in David Johnson at $4. Quarterbacks are locked and loaded with two Top 10 players at a total cost of $18. Overall, a solid draft but a little more depth at wide receiver as opposed to a boatload of running backs may have improved his chances.

1. Which player were you most determined to win? Explain why you like that player this year.

Much to the chagrin of Matt Harmon, I felt I had to walk away from this auction with Allen Robinson. Like most everyone else, I was initially cool on Robinson. Digging into his measurables and his situation over the offseason piqued my interest. What Robinson accomplished in his first year would have been far more impressive to the masses if it had not been overshadowed by the feats of the excellent 2014 rookie receiver class. A stress fracture in his foot prematurely ended his rookie campaign. It was the big a reason he became a forgotten man. What he’s been doing in camp and preseason action has rekindled the buzz. Bortles and the offense steadily continue to improve, and the addition of T.J. Yeldon will only help matters. I see all the signs of a breakout coming for the young Jaguar. I may have overpaid for him slightly at $21, but if you truly believe in a player, you need to be willing to spend a few extra dollars to make sure you get him. That was certainly my mindset in acquiring Robinson.

2. What strategy do you like to use in an auction? Is there one rule that always follow?

Auctions are like snowflakes in that every one is different from the next. You can put the same group of people in two auctions and each draft will have a different flow and complexion. Knowing this, I tend to preach being flexible. If I see that the majority of owners are being tight with their money early on, I may be inclined to loosen the purse strings and spend before things get more competitive later. If I see that most players are blowing cash left and right early, I tend to hold my money because I know there will be values later when my fellow participants don’t have enough cash left to challenge my bids.

The one rule that I always follow for auctions is the same one Ra’s al Ghul gave Bruce Wayne in Batman Begins: “Mind your surroundings!” Keep tabs on how much money your opponents have and which positions they have already filled. Not being aware of these seemingly simple facts will leave you at a large disadvantage. Conversely, paying close attention will give you cues about what you need to do in the heat of the moment.

3. You won Arian Foster for $7. Explain why you think he's a good bargain this year.

I was not a fan of taking Foster at full price initially, but I believe that he’s a value now because of the overreaction of the fantasy community. Everything we are hearing now leads us to believe the timetable for Foster’s return might be sooner than was first expected. While that’s certainly good news, I’m encouraging owners to lower expectations a bit. If you can draft him as your fourth or fifth running back and only count on him for the second half of 2015, I don’t see how you can go wrong.

Overall Strategy: 

Top TE and Top 10 WR

Evaluation

Tefertiller was not afraid to gamble while constructing his roster. He paid top dollar for the consensus top TE Rob Gronkowski and spent $1 each on four separate quarterbacks. Both Derek Carr and Jay Cutler have some potential for Top 15 seasons, Tefertiller will spend most of the year hoping that the gamble pays off. He secured LeSean McCoy and Todd Gurley at reasonable prices, but both head into 2015 with questionable injury situations. I’m comfortable taking a chance on one at the top of my depth chart, selecting both exposes you to a little too much risk. His collection of receivers consist of the Top 10-caliber Calvin Johnson, a WR2/3 in Martavis Bryant and several question marks. I’m concerned about the overall composition of his roster and think Tefertiller will struggle to compete.

Overall Strategy: 

Balanced approach with strict money management

Evaluation

Parsons chose a balanced approach and spent his money wisely. He put together a nice collection of three wide receivers in the $30 range, all with Top 10 upside. Running back is an area of concern as his two lead backs, C.J. Spiller and Giovani Bernard, are not the primary ball carriers for their respective teams. Parsons loaded up on backs with PPR value, a good way to attack the position if you can’t secure a high-level player. His two quarterbacks were acquired for a total spend of $11. Bradford is particularly intriguing at $3, but we know all about his high propensity for injury. Overall, a solid draft for Parsons as he has nice depth at both running back and wide receiver. However, the lack of a true lead back may prove to be his downfall.