Peaks and Valleys
Kyler Murray’s 2024 season opened with a near-upset in Buffalo. Down six with under two minutes to play, he missed a wide-open Marvin Harrison Jr, who could have stunned the Bills and spoiled Josh Allen’s MVP showcase. The next week, he found Harrison for two touchdowns and finished as the fantasy QB1.
That whiplash defined the season.
Murray posted seven Top-12 fantasy finishes, including five in the top five. But he also had 10 games outside the Top 12. One week, he looked like a league-winner; the next, he torpedoed lineups.
Which version of Murray should fantasy managers expect? To start finding an answer, we need to examine a pattern that has followed him throughout his career: the post-bye dip.
Pre- versus Post-Bye Trends
Kyler Murray’s fantasy production consistently dips after the bye week. Whether it’s tied to injuries, coaching changes, or something less tangible, the trend has followed him every year of his career.
Some fans joke that his struggles coincide with Call of Duty release season, a nod to the reported contract clause in 2022 requiring him to study film without video games. The clause was later removed, but the reputation stuck. Whether or not there’s any truth to it, the numbers are hard to ignore.
Murray's 2024 Pre and Post-Bye Spilts
| Record | Pass TD/G | Turnovers/G | Air Yards/Attempt | Passer Rating | Sacks/G | RushAtt/G | RushYds/G | RushTD/G | Fantasy PPG | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weeks 1-10 | 6-4 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 7.84 | 100.8 | 1.5 | 4.6 | 37.1 | 0.4 | 18.3 |
| Weeks 12-18 | 2-5 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 6.09 | 85.9 | 2.1 | 4.6 | 28.7 | 0.1 | 18.0 |
Outside of his QB4 finish in Week 18, Murray averaged 16.3 PPG in Weeks 12-17.
Injury-Shortened 2022-2023 (Left Week 14 after one attempt)
| Games | Pass TD/G | Turnovers/G | Air Yards/Attempt | Passer Rating | Sacks/G | RushAtt/G | RushYds/G | RushTD/G | Fantasy PPG | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 8 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 6.62 | 89.4 | 2.3 | 5.5 | 30.5 | 0.4 | 18.9 |
| 2022 | 10 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 5.97 | 87.1 | 2.5 | 6.6 | 41.5 | 0.3 | 18.9 |
Murray's 2021 Pre and Post-Bye Spilts (Missed Weeks 9-11)
| Record | Pass TD/G | Turnovers/G | Air Yards/Attempt | Passer Rating | Sacks/G | RushAtt/G | RushYds/G | RushTD/G | Fantasy PPG | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weeks 1-8 | 7-1 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 8.99 | 110.4 | 2.3 | 6.1 | 18.4 | 0.4 | 23.1 |
| Weeks 13-18 | 2-4 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 6.74 | 89.3 | 2.2 | 6.5 | 46 | 0.3 | 21 |
For context, Murray returned from injury after the Week 12 bye.
Murray's 2020 Pre and Post-Bye Spilts
| Record | Pass TD/G | Turnovers/G | Air Yards/Attempt | Passer Rating | Sacks/G | RushAtt/G | RushYds/G | RushTD/G | Fantasy PPG | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weeks 1-7 | 5-2 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 7.08 | 93.8 | 1.3 | 9.3 | 62.4 | 1.0 | 28.9 |
| Weeks 9-17 | 3-6 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 7.08 | 94.8 | 2.0 | 7.6 | 42.4 | 0.4 | 20.9 |
Murray's 2019 Pre and Post-Bye Spilts (Rookie Season)
| Record | Pass TD/G | Turnovers/G | Air Yards/Attempt | Passer Rating | Sacks/G | RushAtt/G | RushYds/G | RushTD/G | Fantasy PPG | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weeks 1-11 | 3-7-1 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 7.02 | 91.2 | 3.2 | 6.1 | 38 | 0.3 | 20.4 |
| Weeks 13-17 | 2-3 | 1.2 | 1.8 | 5.53 | 77.6 | 2.6 | 5.2 | 25.2 | 0.2 | 14.5 |
In 2024, Murray’s numbers dipped almost across the board after the bye — from air yards per attempt (7.8 to 6.1), to rushing yards per game (37.1 to 28.7), to a jump in turnovers. The late-season fade has become an annual problem.
The trend shows up in other years too. Since 2020, he’s run less and thrown shorter after the bye in every full season. His fantasy production has followed, with noticeable scoring drops each year.
Some of this change is schematic. Kingsbury’s system encouraged improvisation and vertical shots. Under Drew Petzing, Murray is asked to operate on time and within structure. Combine that with the effects of his 2023 ACL recovery, and it’s no surprise he averaged a career-low 4.6 rushing attempts per game last season.
Whatever the reason, the takeaway is simple. After the bye, Murray tends to run less, take fewer deep shots, and post lower fantasy totals. The Call of Duty clause may be gone, but the late-season fade remains.
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