This Week in Dynasty: Week 11

Hey guys and gals, welcome to This Week in Dynasty. This is a new feature this year where we're going to discuss relevant developments from around the league with a dynasty slant. Everything is fair game, from high-level strategy to nitty-gritty player evals. If you have an suggestions for topics you'd like to see covered in this space, or if you'd just like to join the conversation, feel free to let me know on Twitter at @AdamHarstad.

The Big Takeaway

An object in motion will remain in motion until some force acts upon it. An object at rest will remain at rest until some force acts upon it. Many of you probably recognize this as Newton’s First Law of Motion. Most of you are probably wondering what it has to do with fantasy football. Sir Isaac Newton probably didn’t realize it at the time, (in fact, I’d be rather surprised if he did), but he could have just as easily been describing the behavior of fantasy football owners when compiling their rankings. Players remain static in rankings until some force appears and compels owners to adjust their evaluation. In physics, an object’s resistance to changes in motion is called “inertia”. A freight train has quite a lot of inertia, which means it takes quite a lot of force to get it moving and then, once moving, quite a lot of force to bring it to a stop again. A jellybean has very little inertia, which means even the barest application of force is enough to fling it across a room or catch it and stop it again afterwards. Similarly, I like to refer to the amount of force needed to change a player’s ranking as that fantasy owner’s “level of inertia”.

Inertia is neither good or bad in and of itself, although too much or too little inertia will produce absolutely terrible rankings. For instance, an owner whose level of inertia was off-the-charts high would still have Jerry Rice ranked as his #1 dynasty receiver. On the other hand, an owner with no inertia whatsoever would produce rankings identical to last week’s fantasy totals. Riley Cooper over Julio Jones? Well, Riley Cooper has five TDs in his last two games, and Julio hasn’t scored a point in weeks! Outside of the two extremes, however, lies a very large and reasonable middle ground. In that middle ground, inertia is merely a description rather than a value judgment. It is sometimes bad, and it is sometimes good, and we will rarely know which time is which until well after the fact. For a player like Anquan Boldin or Miles Austin, a low level of inertia yielded huge dividends, as owners could have bought them when they were still considered a fluke (and, in Austin’s case, sold him again at his first signs of struggles). On the other hand, for a player like Vincent Jackson or Andre Johnson, owners with a high level of inertia were the ones who stayed the course through their early-career struggles and reaped the benefits of their later dominance.

Every owner is going to have their own particular level of inertia, and oftentimes it will even vary from player to player. If an owner really likes a player, it will only take a tiny bit of force to move that player up in the rankings, but it will require quite a lot of force to move him down. On the other hand, if they never believed in a player but felt obligated to rank him highly, the tiniest bit of force will be more than enough to send him plummeting down the rankings.

Even though inertia by itself is neither a positive nor a negative, knowing where you and your league mates stand on the inertial scale can provide you with heavy advantages. For example, I tend to be relatively inert in my rankings, but I know several members in my league who are quite the opposite. As a result, I know there are plenty of opportunities for me to trade anyone on my roster who is currently playing well for anyone on their roster who is currently struggling. On the other hand, there are some owners who are even more inert than I am, which means that if there’s a highly pedigreed player on my roster who is struggling and I’m looking to move him, they’re going to be my first call.

In a dynasty league, where you’re going to be competing against the same owners year after year, it’s a good idea to figure out a basic inertia profile for all of your league mates. Pay attention to which guys consistently send you offers after one of your player’s big games, as these will usually be the less inert owners. Pay attention to who is constantly trying to buy your struggling stars off of you after a string of bad games, as these will usually be the more inert owners. Even better, be a bit proactive and engage some of your league mates in trade discussions over a few of the hotter or colder players on your roster. Even if you don’t plan on trading any of those guys, listening to the other owners’ reactions is a good way to gauge where they fall on the inertia scale. And who knows, in the process you just might find yourself receiving an offer that’s too good to refuse. 

Heard Around the Water Cooler

The Eye Test
Robert Griffin is so good at those intermediate throws. Has no problem fitting the ball in tight windows.
-Joe Bussell (@NFLosophy)

Keenan Allen is already a better all around receiver than Vincent Brown. Not really even close either.
Ryan Mathews looks good. Finally looking like the running back everyone expected. Quicks, juice, and enough power to break arm tackles.
-Joe Bussell (@NFLosophy)

Peterson needs such a small crease to create yardage. He's so unbelievable.
-Joe Bussell (@NFLosophy)

Maybe we're turning the corner! 1st career CP TD!
-Ryan McDowell (@RyanMc23)
Patterson is going to be doing a lot of that over the next decade.
-Mike Clay (@MikeClayNFL)

The Redskins invent new and exciting ways for Alfred Morris not to score touchdowns.
-Patrick Daugherty (@RotoPat)

Mayock: Garcon "runs angry." Was 2nd only to Demaryius Thomas in YAC entering this game, per @PFF. Should be 1st by now.
-Chris Wesseling (@ChrisWesseling)

Percy Harvin gonna have 400 yards against the Vikings next week.
-Cian Fahey (@Cianaf)

Rueben Randle is officially WAY better than nicks.
-Davis Mattek (@DavisMattek)

Taylor Thompson TD #dynasty
-Bryan Fontaine (@Bryan_Fontaine)
Thompson in that Robinson/Green category of potential 2014 Jordan Cameron/Julius Thomas'
-Mike Clay (@MikeClayNFL)

Andy Dalton is not a good quarterback.
-Raymond Summerlin (@RMSummerlin)
Andy Dalton is awful.
-Adam Beasley (@AdamHBeasley)
Andy Dalton is a prime example of why I don't trust stats. They lie. Film doesn't.
-Joe Bussell (@NFLosophy)

Ray Rice just does not look like himself this year. He looked like a little kid in a snowsuit running in the open field there. #Ravens
-Matt Vensel (@mattvensel)

The Titans could easily have the best receiving corps in the NFL next season. Justin Hunter has quietly shown a lot in limited time.
-Cian Fahey (@Cianaf)

Jarrett Boykin doesn't look like injury filler. He looks like a good NFL wide receiver. Buy/hold in dynasty.
-Mike Clay (@MikeClayNFL)

LeVeon is so good though. He's really been impressive this year and I absolutely hated that draft pick.
-Cian Fahey (@Cianaf)

Alshon Jeffery is good at leap-timing/high-pointing ball in end zone. Going to be an FF monster.
-Sigmund Bloom (@SigmundBloom)

I can't believe Riley Cooper was left WIDE OPEN again. This Foles-to-Cooper stuff is bordering on surreal.
-Mike Clay (@MikeClayNFL)
There's that fluke Riley Cooper with another long TD, this time from 32 yards. Time to start taking him seriously in FF
-Sigmund Bloom (@SigmundBloom)
@SigmundBloom My opinion remains the same. He's on his lucky run here and he'll fall back to earth quickly.
-Mike Clay (@MikeClayNFL)

Terrelle Pryor is now the quarterback everyone thought he'd be before the season.
-Evan Silva (@evansilva)

If Frank Gore makes it to the hall of fame his bust should be leaning forward.
-Cian Fahey (@Cianaf)

Seriously guys, Andre Johnson is the second best WR in the NFL.
-Cian Fahey (@Cianaf)
Beautiful, beautiful catch by Andre Johnson for a TD. What a player.
-Chase Stuart (@fbgchase)

Why ladarius green doesn't get more playing time is insane.
-kalani91 (@kalani91)
Ladarius Green has seven receptions this season. That includes gains of 24, 27, 25 and 25 yards.
-Kevin Acee (@UTKevinAcee)

I'm just glad the Broncos didn't sign Danny Woodhead. There'd be no stopping that.
-Cian Fahey (@Cianaf)

I think Keenum is very promising.
I'm sure everyone who gave him an undrafted grade will continue to blither on about how he'll never make it. Just give it time. Needs time.
-Cian Fahey (@Cianaf)

I wish DeMarco Murray had better vision and open-field instincts... his initial burst, power, leg drive, sense of urgency all top notch
-Sigmund Bloom (@SigmundBloom)

Has Mark Ingram lost weight? He looks shiftier.
-Cian Fahey (@Cianaf)
Mark Ingram, I wish I knew how to quit you.
-Bryan Fontaine (@Bryan_Fontaine)
Okay, even Mark Ingram is now trolling Trent Richardson.
-Chase Stuart (@fbgchase)

Re-watched PHI-GB: Lacy is what Lendale White should have been. Good feet, efficient, lots of effort to bring down. Runs w tons of heart
#packers hit at WR again with Boykin. Making tough catches, aggressive open-field runner, good timing w Tolzien. lot of fight in his game
Bostick has requisite size, speed, fluid athleticism, hands to be relevant at TE in FF leagues, and he's on the right team for opp in 2014
-Sigmund Bloom (@SigmundBloom)

Lots of teams may regret passing on Justin Hunter in a few years. This kind of ability is rare
Can't say enough good things about Kendall Wright. He's an absolute star.
-Cian Fahey (@Cianaf)

About only thing positive going for Dolphins is that Lamar Miller is starting to get comfortable at RB. Looking more like his college tape.
-Paymon Shokoohi (@SetMyRoster)

All Ladarius Green needs is an opportunity. He's doing great things down field in a limited role. One of my favorite dynasty buys at TE
-Bryan Fontaine (@Bryan_Fontaine)

Tannehill is terrified of his OL, genuine worry that this season is going to completely destroy any development he could have.
-Cian Fahey (@Cianaf)

Tavon Austin's speed is just really incredible. He makes it look like other guys are going in reverse.
-Cian Fahey (@Cianaf)

I saw a football game sunday where a gifted great player.A champion-Winner role model-team player is being used like a blocking tight end.
-Larry Fitzgerald, Sr. (@FitzBeatSr)
(In case you didn’t get it, he was talking about his son, Larry Fitzgerald, Jr.)

Think people are taking statements on Kaep a little over the top. He needs to be more efficient in his progressions. Not "he can't read a D"
-Joe Bussell (@NFLosophy)

Justin Hunter made a play that only a handful of NFL receivers can pull off. He has a chance to be special.
-Chris Wesseling (@ChrisWesseling)

Treat TY Hilton as ev-week starter & WR1. Straight baller. No. 1 option in Luck's O. Moves all over the place so v hard for Ds to take away.
-Evan Silva (@evansilva)

Worrisome for Hakeem Nicks that he's stayed healthy this yr & still major disappointment in contract year. Buyer beware in '14 free agency.
-Evan Silva (@evansilva)

The Numbers Game
Ryan Tannehill: sacked 35 times as a rookie for a loss of 234 yards. Sacked 35 times in 2013 for a loss of 236 yards in half a season.
-Scott Kacsmar (@FO_ScottKacsmar)

Robert Griffin III has ONE rushing touhdown during his last 18 games.
-Mike Clay (@MikeClayNFL)

so disappointed here, Trent Richardson since being traded to #Colts 248 rushing yards (34th in #NFL) 3.0YPC (43rd) 15 1st downs (25th)
-Cecil Lammey (@cecillammey)

Tavon Austin has 310 all purpose yards and is averaging over 44 yards per touch.
-Chris Brown (@smartfootball)

10 targets for Tyler Eifert. Of course, Bengals threw it 51 times.
-Mike Clay (@MikeClayNFL)

#StashAlert - Justin Hunter played 54 snaps yesterday with Damian Williams hurt. Kenny Britt was in on 8 plays. #Titans
A lot of the high-potential young guys already busted out this year (TW/Allen/Alshon/etc), but there's still stash-worthy guys like Hunter.
-Mike Clay (@MikeClayNFL)

Tavon Austin played on only 15 of the Rams 55 snaps yesterday. #BuzzKill
-Mike Clay (@MikeClayNFL)
Tavon Austin ran 9 routes yesterday to pick up 15.33 yards per route run. Before WK10 he was averaging 0.92
-Pro Football Focus (@PFF)

Rashard Mendenhall has 198 yards on his last 75 carries (2.64 YPC). Andre Ellington has 54 carries this year. 388 yards (7.19 YPC).
-Evan Silva (@evansilva)

Since the start of 2012, @ShowtimeTate ranks 56th in the NFL w/ 86 catches, yet has forced more missed tackles than any other WR. #Seahawks
-Jacson Bevens (@JacsonBevens)

Over the Giants last 3 games, Rueben Randle has seen only 7% of the targets.
-Mike Clay (@MikeClayNFL)

Le'Veon Bell has handled at least two-thirds of the Steelers designed run attempts in every game he's been active for.
-Mike Clay (@MikeClayNFL)

No WR has more yards per route run than the 2.8 of Calvin Johnson. 2nd is still Julio Jones (2.74) & 3rd DeSean Jackson w/2.61
For TEs Vernon Davis leads the way with 2.84 yards per route run ahead of Jimmy Graham (2.76) in 2nd. 3rd spot belongs to Jordan Reed (2.25)
-Pro Football Focus (@PFF)

Remember when a 1,000-yard season use to mean something? Hakeem Nicks on pace for 1,013 of the most meaningless yards possible.
-Chris Wesseling (@ChrisWesseling)

25% of Riley Cooper's catches are touchdowns this season. Easiest #RegressionAlert ever.
-Mike Clay (@MikeClayNFL)

Aaron Rodgers & Peyton Manning rank 24th and 25th in average depth of target, respectively. You don't have to throw it deep to be a good QB.
-Joe Bussell (@NFLosophy)

Colin Kaepernick last season when throwing to Crabtree: 68.5 percent completion percentage, 8 TDs, zero interceptions. #BuyLow
-Adam Pfeifer (@aPfeiferRS)

Also of Interest
Jaguars are the only Florida NFL team with a playoff win in the last decade.
-Scott Kacsmar (@FO_ScottKacsmar)

Said it on UTH show this week...dynasty folks need to sniff around to Jordan Cameron owner for 90 cents on the dollar deal.
Cameron is an athletic outlier, think notch below from Vernon Davis, at the tight end position and situation can only improve in '14/15
-Chad Parsons (@ChadParsonsNFL)

It's not possible to appreciate how remarkable Peterson is. He's pretty much all the Vikings have. And he keeps them competitive. As a RB.
Your best Chuck Norris jokes but in the form of Adrian Peterson. Go.
-Joe Bussell (@NFLosophy)
@NFLosophy Adrian Peterson goes for it on fourth down in Canadian football.
-Dave Melton (@_DaveMelton)
@NFLosophy jesus can walk on water but adrian peterson can swim through land
-Daniel Staub (@jaguarsfan21)
@NFLosophy how many push ups can AP do? all of them
-Sehand Torabi (@s_torabi1016)
@NFLosophy Adrian Peterson once went to the virgin islands. They're now just called islands
-Ruben (@finsfan0104)
@NFLosophy When Dr. Bruce Banner gets angry, he turns into Hulk. When the Hulk gets angry, he turns into Adrian Peterson.
-Balsley (@MBalsley)
@NFLosophy Adrian Peterson is the reason Waldo is hiding.
-Evan Tarnes (@Evantertainment)

I also just found out that my phone wants to autocorrect nflosophy to "NFL idiocy." It's clearly tracking me.
-Joe Bussell (@NFLosophy)

To the ppl who tried to warn about Arian Foster this yr (you know who you are), you were right, I was wrong. Injuries due to wear/tear.
-Paymon Shokoohi (@SetMyRoster)
(For what it’s worth, I disagree. I think wear and tear is overrated as a source of RB decline. But that’s a subject for another week’s column…)

Bottom line on Bryant: Tonight is probably not major concern, barring pregame flare. But next 2 weeks, 2 months now unpredictable.
-Jene Bramel (@JeneBramel)
(Dr. Bramel is discussing the disk problem in Bryant’s back)

Doctors have told Giants' David Wilson he faces increased risk of neck injury if he plays again. But Wilson wants, expects to play next year
-Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter)

Anyone who expects a workplace conflict to be cut 'n' dry has never experienced a workplace or a conflict.
-Mike Tanier (@MikeTanier)

Too bad Cobb isn't healthy. Would love to see him at QB RT @NFL_ATL Scott Tolzein is in for Packers. Uncertain what happened to Wallace.
-Sigmund Bloom (@Sigmund Bloom)

Either last week was the best buy low moment ever for Tavon Austin, or this week is the best sell high moment ever for Tavon Austin.
-Sigmund Bloom (@SigmundBloom)

Austin's 2/138/2 line is flipping awesome, but as a dynasty owner, I'd much rather see a 9/136/0.
-Adam Harstad (@AdamHarstad)

Kind of funny that a receiver's reputation of not being good in the red zone could be mostly based on his qb just not throwing to him there.
-Fantasy Douche (@FantasyDouche)

Pierre Thomas is the Cal Ripken of being "barely fantasy relevant".
-Fantasy Douche (@FantasyDouche)

We've seen CJ Spiller used sparingly (at least not as much as we want) by 2 different coaching staffs.
FF owners like to complain about his usage and we've all seen his explosive ability. But maybe there's more there that we don't see.
-Ryan McDowell (@RyanMc23)

On Pierce replacing Rice as the starter: "We don't think that's the solution." Says Rice's health has been a factor: "No doubt about it."
-Jeff Zrebiec (@jeffzrebiecsun)

Denard Robinson just got drafted. David Wilson and MJD still on the board #DLFMidseasonMock
-Ryan McDowell (@RyanMc23)

If Pierce had done anything this yr I'd hop on the Rice stinks train. Can 2 RBs start sucking simultaneously? Not calling him dead yet.
-Mark Rockwell (@Mark_Rockwell85)

Harbaugh taught Luck, resurrected Alex from QB dysfunctional hell....He can handle & fix Colin. The #49ers are fine
-John Middlekauff (@JohnMiddlekauff)

You can say Dez isn't anywhere near Calvin, but defenses are treating him like he is
-Cian Fahey (@Cianaf)

I love it when NFL teams do stuff that is just silly, like not throw to a 230 pound receiver at all in the red zone.
And then an entire narrative gets built around it with people saying "Andre Johnson has never been a factor in the red zone"
And then they get a new QB who decides to toss a few AJ's way and he converts 3/3 red zone targets into TDs in just a few weeks.
-Fantasy Douche (@FantasyDouche)

In August, there were 19 RBs drafted in the first 3 rounds of dynasty drafts. This month? Just 10
-Ryan McDowell (@RyanMc23)

Kicking self over FF decisions that turned out wrong is actually the worst thing you can do. Esp if you let it impact future decisions.
FF just a best-bet game. Cant expect best bet to be right every time. Could be wrong 3 weeks in a row & was still all along the best bet.
So when you kick yourself for best bets gone wrong & react by ignoring best bets, the odds really turn against you. Stick to the best bets.
-Evan Silva (@evansilva)

Vereen & Ridley play diff positions. SV passing back, old Woodhead role. SR early-down power RB. TD scorer. SV crushes Bolden, not SR.
Blount all along has been biggest threat to Ridley value;not the passing backs. Which defies logic bc Blount is awful, but true nonetheless.
-Evan Silva (@evansilva)
@evansilva He crushes Bolden for sure , but I definitely think return hurts Ridley. Vereen usually plays in backfield. Will steal some att.
-Mike Clay (@MikeClayNFL)

Nick Foles
I wouldn't be in a hurry to sell Nick Foles in dynasty unless price is right. Has decision-making & lack of fear to make Chip offense click
-Sigmund Bloom (@SigmundBloom)

On opening weekend, Peyton Manning had 7 TDs in 42 pass attempts. In his last 42 pass attempts, Nick Foles has 10 TDs.
Peyton Manning set a "record" by throwing 19 TDs before his first INT. Nick Foles has thrown 16 TDs, and still has no INTs on the year.
-Adam Harstad (@AdamHarstad)

Foles game is quiet but so effective in Chip O. Instincts seem to be fine-tuned. Sees field with clarity. Accurate. Understands options well
Foles underrated as scrambler. Will keep on read option & get yds. Doesn't panic in tight quarters. Leads receivers well on deep balls.
Foles footwork underrated. Re-establishes good throwing platform when launch point moved and on the move.
Foles. Long story short, I'll be making play for Foles in my dynos this wk RT @Ryan_Boser Here's one for you Sig: Pryor or Foles in dynasty?
-Sigmund Bloom (@SigmundBloom)

Foles' ability to make good decisions efficiently is not to be understated. He's smart, accurate, and hits the open receiver consistently
-Joe Bussell (@NFLosophy)

Your Weekly Jordan Reed Update (With Usual Small Sample Size Caveats)
Pro-rated to 16 games, Reed's stats would be 88 receptions for 974 yards. Jordan Reed is a rookie. Tight end.
Career rec ypg for TEs: 1. Gronk (64.1), 2. Graham (62.9), 3. KW Sr. (61.8), 4. Jordan Reed (60.9), 5. Gates (57.2), 6. Gonzo/Witten (56.3)
Include rushing yards in that last list and Reed jumps to #2 with 63.1 offensive yards per game.
The following TEs average over 5 receptions per game for their career: Jordan Reed (5.50), Jason Witten (5.07). KW Sr. has 4.96.
Jordan Reed averages more fantasy points per game for his career (PPR) than anyone except for Gronk or Graham.
Jordan Reed is currently averaging the second most yards per game of any rookie TE in history, behind HoFer Mike Ditka's 1961 debut.
Seems people like the Reed updates, so here's a bonus: four rookie TEs have topped 4 rec per game. Reed has 5.5, BY FAR the best in history.
The 7th place rookie in receptions per game is Rob Awalt, with 3.5. He's as close to 128th place as he is to Reed in first.
-Adam Harstad (@AdamHarstad)

Second Thoughts

So, last week I headlined my "Second Thoughts" with a discussion on how everyone was reacting to Tavon Austin's slow start, finishing with "It's too soon to be writing off Tavon Austin, a guy who was talented enough to command a top-10 pick in the NFL draft. And if the Tavon Austin owner in your league disagrees, then now is the time to buy him cheap." Austin responded with over 300 all-purpose yards and a trio of 50+ yard touchdowns. A couple of weeks ago, I wrote about how Justin Blackmon still presented just as much risk as he did before he was having huge fantasy games, finishing with "In leagues where I own Blackmon, I will be quietly making inquiries to see if anyone is willing to purchase him at a price that reflects all of his upside but none of his downside." Soon enough, Blackmon earned his newest suspension and plummeted down boards. I am not a wizard, these are just perfect examples of situations where having a decent amount of inertia works in your favor. As a relatively high-inertia ranker, these are the kinds of calls that I'm going to consistently get right in the long run.

On the other hand, having a weekly column presents me with a bit of an advantage, because I get to pick and choose who I write about. This means you often don't see the players my high level of inertia led to me being wrong about. For instance, I was happy to take a wait-and-see approach with Zac Stacy and Eddie Lacy, two rookie RBs I was below the consensus on entering the season. Well, I've waited, and I've seen, and now it's too late to acquire them. Ditto that with Andre Ellington, most likely. Having a high level of inertia means you'll get certain kinds of calls consistently right, but it also means you'll get other types consistenly wrong. Like everything else in dynasty leagues, it's a tradeoff, and all owners should work hard to be cognizent of the implications. If you tailor your approach to capitalizing on its advantages while remaining cognizant of its disadvantages, you can consistently turn a profit even with a good-but-not-perfect method.

Speaking of Ellington... Ryan McDowell made an interesting point in the Water Cooler above about C.J. Spiller. We've now seen two coaching staffs limit Spiller. At what point do we begin to question whether there's something there that we don't see? After all, nobody knows Spiller better as a player than his coaches. I'm not ready to throw in the towel on him entirely, especially given his nagging injuries this year, but it's a red flag. Similarly, Bruce Arians' unwillingness to commit to Ellington is a red flag. Maybe Bruce Arians is an idiot, or overly loyal to Mendenhall, but at the same time, maybe he just knows something that we don't. NFL history is littered with per-touch superstars who put up insane efficiency ratings but never earned a serious workload. Names like Mewelde Moore, Jerious Norwood, Leon Washington, Felix Jones, Tatum Bell, and Jacquizz Rodgers have all inspired their owners to say "man, if that guy ever got a full workload..." The problem is, there's a reason each of those guys wasn't receiving a full workload, and it's possible that there's a reason Ellington isn't, either. Sure, maybe he's the next Jamaal Charles, but maybe he's the next Mewelde Moore, instead. That's certainly a risk, and as I'm fond of saying, that risk needs to be factored into his price.

Another week, another batch of injuries to try to buy low on. I'm not actually going to push too hard on the "buy David Wilson" or "buy Jermichael Finley" trains, because both of their injuries are of the potentially career-ending variety. One reason I love buying injured players is that once they come back, they're usually good enough to make you forget they were ever gone. That only happens if they actually come back, though- just ask Jahvid Best or Austin Collie owners. If you can get David Wilson for crazy cheap prices (such as in the Dynasty mock mentioned by Ryan McDowell, where David Wilson went after Denard Robinson), then that's a worthwhile gamble. I've mentioned before how old this season's RB crop is, so Wilson is valuable if for no other reason than that he's young. That's in a startup mock, though- it's likely that anyone who owns David Wilson in an established league has so much invested in him at this point that he's not selling anywhere near that cheaply. David Wilson went 5 rounds behind Knowshon Moreno in that mock draft, and yet when I offered Moreno for Wilson in an established dynasty, I was rejected immediately. So it's worth asking, but I wouldn't have high hopes. As for Finley... he looked to have decent value in a weak TE crop coming into the season, but the emergence of Cameron, Thomas, and Reed have capped his upside. In leagues where I didn't own Finley, I'd probably be fine letting his owner keep him. There are enough other interesting TE prospects out there that there's not a whole lot of need to pay for someone who is such a question mark.

Jake Locker's injury isn't career-ending, but I can't help but wonder what kind of impact it will have. What happens if he returns to a new coaching staff who is not so invested in him? Tennessee is quickly nearing the point where they need to make a decision on his future. Still, he made so many positive strides this season, and he's such a threat as a rusher, that I'd be happy to add him as a speculative low-end QB2 in my dynasty leagues. Backup quarterbacks are all about upside, and Jake Locker has it.

Speaking of quarterbacks and upside, the recent struggles of Joe Flacco and Eli Manning just underscores how little of it either of them actually had. With the exception of Eli Manning's 2011 season, neither quarterback had ever topped 20 VBD in their careers. Even that winds up being generous to them, as neither QB has ever missed a game, meaning their season-ending totals overstate their per-game impact. Those guys aren't completely without value in dynasty leagues, but that value is strictly limited to desperation starts while covering for byes and injuries, and even then they don't dramatically outshine the options that are usually available on the street. Both have been in the league long enough that they are who they are; quarterbacks rarely change their stripes after 3-4 seasons (although that's a column for another day). Don't be the guy who rosters an Eli Manning or a Joe Flacco. Be the guy who sells them for longshots with actual, genuine upside. I'd much rather have a Jake Locker, Ryan Tannehill, Nick Foles, or Case Keenum in dynasty. Heck, even Ryan Mallett and Brock Osweiler are more intriguing to me. Sure, if my starter gets hurt, those two do me no good right now, but filling in for injured starters is why players like Ryan Fitzpatrick and Jeff Tuel exist. If I'm devoting a roster-spot to a QB, I have to believe he has a reasonable chance at being a top-6 fantasy option.

A lot of people think there's some sort of conflict between "scouting guys" and "numbers guys", but I really believe that both are integral to developing consistent and coherent player values in dynasty. That's why I devote sections to each approach each week in Heard Around the Water Cooler. No matter how good a guy looks, if he's a historical outlier he's a risk. On the other hand, no matter how bad a guy looks, if he's a historical outlier, he's at risk of improvement. Numbers shouldn't be the basis on which you form opinions, but if you aren't at least using them to inform your opinions, you're going to be losing value in the long run.

With that in mind, Jordan Reed is a historical outlier as a rookie (although not much of an outlier when compared to his veteran peers, he just doesn't have any bad seasons dragging down his averages). I'm not providing the stats every week to suggest that we should start measuring him for his gold jacket already. He's just having a historically great season that is flying a little bit under the radar because of the position he plays. I'm not saying we should crown him, I'm just saying we should appreciate him. Is his production sustainable? Probably, with maybe a little bit of regression because 1,000 yard seasons from TEs aren't exactly a slam-dunk, still. His 7.7 targets per game are a perfectly reasonable number. Even if Washington brings in more receiving targets this offseason, they're throwing the ball a lot to Santana Moss, Leonard Hankerson, and Josh Morgan, so any new receiver could easily get looks at the expense of those guys without eating into Reed's production.

On the topic of Washington, Pierre Garcon is getting more targets than his profile would really dictate. He's currently one of six receivers averaging 11+ targets per game. The other five are Calvin Johnson, Julio Jones, A.J. Green, Vincent Jackson, and Justin Blackmon. Immediately behind Garcon are Andre Johnson and Rob Gronkowski, with Antonio Brown, Cecil Shorts, and Brandon Marshall being the only other receivers getting over 10 targets per game. Garcon is a very good receiver, but that's probably company that he doesn't belong in. I'd be more worried about his numbers regressing than Reed's.

One last thought before I go. I wholly agree with Cian that Tennessee's WR corps is an extremely interesting one. Hunter and Wright has the potential to be one of the best duos in the entire league. It's just one more reason to consider taking a chance on Jake Locker.

Best of luck to everyone in their Week 11 games. I'll see you back here next week with plenty of NFL action to break down and plenty of dynasty implications to discuss!