If there’s one lesson to take away from this year’s quarterback landscape, it’s to wait to draft one. And then wait a bit longer. And then wait some more.
There are the obvious difference-makers up top, but they’re going to cost you the same that you’d be spending on a WR2 or RB1. Of course, someone has to take them. And if they slip a bit below where they should, you’re likely locking in elite production. But fresh off one of the best quarterback classes we’ve ever seen entering the league, there’s good reason to wait. In addition to the young talent, we’ve got new high-end starters with new teams.
Rather than paying up this year, I find myself waiting and then drafting two or three quarterbacks, increasing my chances of hitting big on a late-round pick. While your leaguemates are reaching for mid-tier quarterbacks to fill out their starting lineups, bolster your wide receiver and running back rooms with depth in the middle rounds.
Next to the player’s names, you might see a “+” or “-” that will indicate how much higher or lower I am compared to our Average Draft Position. For players with a notable deviation, I will add my thoughts.
Let’s start with the guys going early in drafts.
The Elites
These quarterbacks won’t be cheap, but for good reason. They all have elite ceilings, potentially scoring 25-plus points per game this year. Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson both have MVPs and overall QB1 finishes under their belts. And while Jayden Daniels hasn’t gotten either yet, we saw enough from his rookie season to put him into this tier. He’s an elite rusher who can layer passes through every level of the defense with pinpoint accuracy. Their draft costs aren’t getting steamed up into Round 2 like we’ve seen in previous years, making their acquisition cost a bit more palatable than you might expect.
- QB1 - Josh Allen
- QB2 - Lamar Jackson
- QB3 - Jayden Daniels
High-End QB1s
There are minor nitpicks with each of these quarterbacks that keep them out of the elite tier, but they can each finish as this year’s QB1. Touchdowns have largely buoyed Hurts’ fantasy production over the last few years. If those regress even a little, his floor could fall out from under him. And while Burrow is one of the best passers in the league with two great wide receivers, his lack of rushing caps his overall upside. These are both outstanding players, but I struggle paying up for them in drafts this year.
- QB4 - Jalen Hurts
- QB5 - Joe Burrow
Low-End QB1s
This tier is a weird hodgepodge of superstars, waning prospects, young up-and-comers, and a Konai Code QB (shoutout Rich Hribar). Like the tier above, this isn’t a group of quarterbacks I’m aggressively targeting. But if Kyler Murray, Justin Fields, or Brock Purdy are there at the right cost, I’ll be inclined to give them a look.
- QB6 - Patrick Mahomes II
- QB7 - Kyler Murray (+3) - Career-bests in rushing efficiencies last year inspire some hope that Murray can bounce back after his fantasy production has started trending down.
- QB8 - Justin Fields (+3) - It might not be pretty, but Fields’ rushing upside gives him a rare floor-ceiling combo worth targeting in fantasy drafts.
- QB9 - Brock Purdy (+2) - A shifty scrambler, Purdy has settled into Shanahan’s system and offers more upside than most drafters realize.
- QB10 - Bo Nix (-2) - While the rookie-season production was nice, underlying metrics indicate a possibility for some regression in Year 2.
High-Variance QB2s
At this point in the draft, I won’t draft any of these quarterbacks to be my plug-and-play option. If I find myself shopping in the bargain bin, which I’m doing often this year, I like to draft multiple quarterbacks to increase my odds of hitting on this year’s league-winner. Our friend Andrew Cooper discusses the Yin-Yang TE Strategy, and I find myself applying it to quarterbacks. If I draft a safe veteran, I like to pair them up with a young, unknown quarterback who could potentially have a higher ceiling. While a flat list of rankings here is nice, I strongly advocate for targeting different archetypes if you find yourself going for a two-quarterback build.
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