Hey guys and gals, welcome to This Week in Dynasty. This is a new feature this year where we're going to discuss relevant developments from around the league with a dynasty slant. Everything is fair game, from high-level strategy to nitty-gritty player evals. If you have an suggestions for topics you'd like to see covered in this space, or if you'd just like to join the conversation, feel free to let me know on Twitter at @AdamHarstad.
The Big Takeaway
Some weeks, there’s no story dominating the dynasty landscape and I have to search around for less obvious trends to write about. This is not one of those weeks. Just hours after I submitted last week’s column, news broke that Justin Blackmon had been suspended indefinitely by the league for violating the substance abuse policy. Blackmon is eligible to apply for reinstatement prior to next season, but of course there is a difference between “eligible to apply for reinstatement” and “will be reinstated”. The response in redraft is quite simple- swear a bit, cut him, and move on. In dynasty, of course, nothing is ever simple. Justin Blackmon was a dominant college receiver, just the second player in history (after Michael Crabtree) to twice win the Biletnikoff award, given to the top college wideout in the nation. Blackmon was a top-5 NFL draft pick, billed by some as Dez Bryant without the issues. Moreover, after a slow first half of his rookie year, Blackmon had been on fire, producing very strong numbers in an abysmal situation. If he didn’t have any red flags attached to him, I don’t think anyone would argue against ranking him alongside Green, Julio, Dez, or Demaryius as the very elite young cornerstone WRs, (I’d add Harvin to that list, but I’m a bit off an oddball). Unfortunately, you can’t just pretend the red flags don’t exist. So let’s examine those red flags.
While we don’t know what substance triggered Blackmon’s most recent failed test, we do know that historically his drug of choice has been alcohol. Blackmon was arrested for DUI in 2010 while still in college, which at the time was easy to chalk up to youthful indiscretions. Jacksonville felt so confident in him that they traded up into the top 5 of the NFL draft to select him. Blackmon rewarded their confidence by getting arrested two months after the NFL draft for his second DUI, this time with a blood-alcohol level of 0.24, three times the legal limit. Suddenly, Blackmon’s alcohol issues went from “isolated incident” to “disturbing trend”, and Blackmon’s position in rookie drafts suffered as a result. For a year leading up to the NFL draft, Blackmon was seen, alongside Richardson and Luck, as one of the real prizes of the 2012 draft class. After news of his second DUI broke, Blackmon started slipping to the 4th or 5th pick in rookie drafts, behind Robert Griffin III and Doug Martin. It turns out that his falls was perfectly justified.
We don’t know whether Blackmon entered the league in the substance abuse program (because of his college DUI), or whether that first DUI is what landed him there. If the former, then that first DUI would have moved him to stage 2 of the program, his failed test this offseason triggered a four-game suspension and moved him to stage 3, and his most recent failed test has led to his current indefinite suspension. If the NFL didn’t hold his college DUI against him, then the implications are even worse- it means in order for Blackmon to be where he’s at, he must have had a third failed test that we don’t know about. We also don’t know whether the NFL is testing him for alcohol, or whether it was a different banned substance that triggered his two suspensions. Much of the details of a player’s history in the substance abuse program are confidential, and Blackmon deserves to have his privacy respected. Whatever triggered this most recent test, it is abundantly clear that Justin Blackmon has an addiction problem. To test positive just four weeks removed from the end of his last suspension, when he knows he is subject to random tests twice a week, indicates that Justin Blackmon has a serious substance abuse issue.
I have seen some suggest that Justin Blackmon will learn from this situation, get his head right, and come back to the field ready to dominate next season. I believe this is an overly optimistic take. Obviously Blackmon’s career is at stake, along with the attendant fame and fortune. A rational person would conclude that the millions of dollars take precedence. A rational person would put aside his habit in the short run, perhaps taking it back up after his career is over. The problem is that addicts are, by definition, not rational people. Addicts are not unaware of the consequences of their actions, and they are not under the impression that their behavior is rational. Millions of dollars are awfully high stakes, for sure. At the same time, I have personally known addicts who have lost their spouse and children over their addiction, which I think qualifies as higher stakes than any sum of money. Leaving anecdotal evidence aside, statistics on recovery from addiction are not promising. The vast majority of addicts suffer one or more relapses during their recovery. In a program where each relapse mandates a year-long suspension, that’s a massive risk. In one study, only 19% of people receiving treatment for alcoholism were able to go an entire year without drinking any alcohol. It’s possible that Justin Blackmon receives the finest treatment that money can buy, but he’s hardly the first millionaire with an addiction problem. Moreover, right now Justin Blackmon needs to be taking time away from football to worry about getting himself healthy again. The problem is that we don’t know how long he’ll need to take away, and whether he’ll be the same when he gets back. We’ve seen players return from a year off even better than they left. We’ve also seen players take a year off and never be the same again. Blackmon is young and talented and I wouldn’t think the odds of him getting too rusty would be high, but it’s just another risk to add to the pile.
A comparison that I’ve made to Justin Blackmon over the last week is Danario Alexander. I believe that “injury prone” is usually just a myth caused by people hunting for patterns among random data points. Danario Alexander is the reason I use “usually” in that last sentence. I think that it’s quite clear that Danario Alexander is at dramatically heightened risk for serious injury, and I think it’s equally clear that the NFL agrees, as evidenced by the fact that when he was a restricted free agent last season, San Diego tendered him at the lowest possible level (meaning a team signing away Alexander would not be required to compensate the Chargers), and still nobody offered him a long-term contract. Now, Justin Blackmon is more talented than Danario Alexander, but Alexander is no slouch. Either way, the risks and the rewards are the same. Both players will produce massive per-game numbers when they’re on the field. Both players are at dramatically heightened risk of disappearing without a trace for a year at a time. No team is going to want to make a long-term commitment to either player.
As you probably know, I happen to like risk when building a dynasty team. I’ve written before about maximizing team variance so that you’re either finishing 1st or 12th, because that approach either gets you a trophy or a fantastic rookie pick. From that perspective, Justin Blackmon is the perfect high-risk, high-reward player. In this case, however, the risk is too high. I never want to be in a position where I’m counting on Justin Blackmon to get me points, because he will likely wind up disappearing without a moment’s notice at some point in the future. And even if he doesn’t, he’s going to be in the substance abuse program for the rest of his life, which means that risk will always be there. It might take years of uninterrupted sobriety before people are willing to look past that.
At the end of the day, setting aside for a moment the sad particulars and the important human component, this really is just a story of risk. We knew the risks surrounding Justin Blackmon. We knew he was in stage 3 of the substance abuse program, and that he potentially had a serious addiction problem. It’s just that, when he was lighting up the league and putting up video-game numbers, it was easy to let our excitement over his talent get in the way of that knowledge. Justin Blackmon was not a top-12 dynasty receiver two weeks ago, despite his age and his production to the contrary. Lest you think I’m merely taking advantage of 20/20 hindsight, I wrote as much after Blackmon’s near-200-yard game against Denver. I wrote: “it's important to remember why Blackmon was serving his four-game suspension in the first place. By some reports, Justin Blackmon is already in stage 3 of the substance abuse program, which means any additional violations will incur a mandatory 1-year suspension. That's a major risk that is flying under the radar, and it has to be factored into his price. In leagues where I own Blackmon, I will be quietly making inquiries to see if anyone is willing to purchase him at a price that reflects all of his upside but none of his downside. I tend to embrace risk when building a fantasy team, but If I could get top-10 receiver prices for Blackmon today, I'd be happy with that.” I then recommended targeting a Julio Jones, Randall Cobb, Percy Harvin, or Michael Crabtree in a potential Blackmon trade. The reasons at the time were simple- injuries suck, but they heal, and they don’t present any further risk going forward. Substance abuse problems are a cloud that will surround a player for the rest of his career. I’ll load my roster with “injured” and “injury prone” and “injury risk” players all day long. I’ll grab every productive guy with a less-than-ideal body type. I’ll even take some chances are guys with character or mental health issues. Addiction, though? That’s one of the few times where the publicly-applied risk discount is right on the money, or even insufficient.
Finally, I’d like to leave with one final thought. I have seen some people downgrade Josh Gordon because of the suspension to Justin Blackmon. To me, this indicates one of two things. First, they could have realized that their risk discount on Josh Gordon prior to Blackmon’s suspension was insufficient, and recent events made them realize and correct that error. Second, their initial risk discount could have been right on the money, but Blackmon’s suspension has caused them to revise their estimates of how likely Gordon is to get suspended. This is not a rational response, this is a cognitive bias. Specifically, it is a perfect example of the availability heuristic. Basically, our brain estimates how probable an event is by how easy it is to recall other instances of that event. The availability heuristic is why, for example, parents spend so much time and effort protecting their children against kidnappers and so little time and effort protecting their children against improperly installed car seats. The former is an unbelievably rare event, but it receives non-stop news coverage, making it seem quite common. The latter is sadly an all-too-common event, but it never makes the news, so people believe it’s quite rare. Similarly, a week ago, we couldn’t think of many cases of someone in stage 3 of the substance abuse program failing a test, so we estimated that the probability was very low. Today, there’s a huge example staring us in the face, so suddenly our estimates of Gordon’s chances of failing have shot through the roof. This is nonsensical. Josh Gordon is not more likely to fail a drug test just because Justin Blackmon did, any more than I am or you are. They are completely unrelated people with completely unrelated issues. If anything, you would think Josh Gordon is slightly less likely to fail a drug test today than he was a week ago, after seeing Justin Blackmon’s very public fall from grace (although that assumes rational behavior on Gordon’s part, and if Josh Gordon is struggling with addiction, rational behavior cannot be assumed).
In short, if Justin Blackmon’s suspension is causing you to actively reconsider your player valuations looking for instances where you inappropriately priced risk, then that’s good. If Justin Blackmon’s suspension is causing you to reactively change your risk preferences, then that’s bad. The first article I wrote for Footballguys concerned the importance of judging your decisions based on the processes, not the outcomes (notice how this is all starting to tie together?) The first example is textbook process-centric thinking- you’re evaluating your processes and trying to improve on them. The second is an example of outcome-centric thinking- you’re judging your processes not by how sound they are, but by the outcome that was produced in one specific situation. When I wrote about Blackmon that it was time to sell, I also wrote the following about Gordon: “Also for what it's worth, Josh Gordan, in my mind, is 80% of Justin Blackmon. 80% of the production so far, 80% of the talent, but he only carries 80% of the risk, and he's only due for 80% of the regression. If I could get top-10 WR prices for Gordon, I'd gladly do that, too. I'm less optimistic with my chances, there, so I'd be more inclined to hold him and take on the risk. As I said, I tend to be pro-risk when building a roster, it's only when you can begin to trade an asset that is productive but risky for one that is equally productive but much less risky that trades start to make sense.” That reasoning is as sound today as it was three weeks ago, even if it might be harder to trust.
Heard Around the Water Cooler
The Eye Test
Anyone knocking Nelson (not saying you are, Cian) is an easy tell for who's not watching the games. Almost too easy.
-Chris Wesseling (@ChrisWesseling)
(Chris is defending ranking Jordy Nelson as one of his top-5 WRs through 8 games. Chris is also correct.)
Charles Clay <3
Charles Clay is the type of guy Belichick would steal if he hits free agency.
-Cian Fahey (@Cianaf)
AJ Green is so fantastic at getting separation. The subtle bumps and nudges he does gives Dalton so much more space to throw.
-NFL Philosophy (@NFLosophy)
So this Marvin Jones coming out party is real...
-Cian Fahey (@Cianaf)
Marvin Jones, no fluke
-Sigmund Bloom (@SigmundBloom)
Lateral jump cuts. You don't see Ray Rice doing that anymore.
-Chris Wesseling (@ChrisWesseling)
Holy Gio.
-Joe Bussell (@NFLosophy)
Gio Bernard: 2014 RB1
-Mike Clay (@MikeClayNFL)
Gio = Ray Rice.
-Cian Fahey (@Cianaf)
Wrote about Ryan Tannehill in my Footballguys article this week, continues to impress me on the field. Fantasy stats coming with patience.
-Chad Parsons (@ChadParsonsNFL)
@ChadParsonsNFL patience... and OL improvement
-Sigmund Bloom (@SigmundBloom)
The more film I watch, the more I think these elusive, laterally explosive running backs are going to take over the game.
-Joe Bussell (@NFLosophy)
Antonio Gates on Keenan Allen: "I knew he was good, but Ive never seen this...He's making plays & I'm like 'wow'"
-Evan Silva (@evansilva)
Steven Jackson's looking very Michael Turner-ish. The Falcons were looking for a big upgrade there, and didn't get it.
-Darin Gantt (@daringantt)
Jordan Reed is to RG III as Jason Witten is to Tony Romo.
-Paymon Shokoohi (@SetMyRoster)
Brees' ability to manipulate the pocket gives the Saints so many options. Allowed Graham to get behind defense.
-Joe Bussell (@NFLosophy)
Cole Beasley > Miles Austin?
-Cian Fahey (@Cianaf)
(Chris) Johnson's second touchdown run is another great example of how his patience and vision has been this year. Really impressive play.
-Cian Fahey (@Cianaf)
Was Nick Foles hurt during that Dallas game? He looked like a different guy in that game vs the others. Looks great today
-Chris Brown (@smartfootball)
Terrelle Pryor isn't great yet, but he is exhausting for defenses to play against. Have to spend all day chasing him around
-Chris Brown (@smartfootball)
Terrelle Pryor's acceleration is Madden-esque.
-Cian Fahey (@Cianaf)
Opinion: Rob Gronkowski looks more athletic this year than any other in his career. Moving extremely well today. 6 rec., 110 yards, 1 TD.
-Field Yates (@FieldYates)
Hesitancy, lack of power, elusiveness evident on these Ray Rice runs as well as lack of holes. Has 14 yards on seven carries
-Aaron Wilson (@RavensInsider)
All of the sudden Andre Johnson can find the end zone. There's no check-down in Keenum's game.
-Chris Wesseling (@ChrisWesseling)
Colts down it at the one and Case Keenum's like, 'Awesome, I'll just throw a 99-yard touchdown pass.'
-John Breech (@johnbreech)
It's Case Keenum's world, and we're all just living in it. Andre Johnson seems to be enjoying this world very much.
-Chase Stuart (@fbgchase)
C.J. Spiller was the most dynamic football player on the field in Sunday's KC-BUF game. Spectacular talent. So much fun to see that again.
-Evan Silva (@evansilva)
T.Y. is fast, but he's an underrated route runner too and that's why I like him long term.
-Cian Fahey (@Cianaf)
T.Y. Hilton is a souped-up Victor Cruz in new movable WR role. More explosive & sudden. Legit dont think any CB in the league can cover him.
-Evan Silva (@evansilva)
Holes were big vs STL but Chris Johnson worked for yds when necessary & finished runs. He's Jamaal Charles if he runs like that every game.
-Evan Silva (@evansilva)
Also, I see almost no indication that the Cowboys have soured on DeMarco Murray. Not like they're working other backs in more.
Durability is a chief concern, but he's a good player. They need to find a good compliment to him, but he has a future as a feature back
-Mike Clay (@MikeClayNFL)
Amendola and Gronk vertically attacking the seams together causes catastrophic problems for a secondary.
-Raymond Summerlin (@RMSummerlin)
Jordy Nelson all in as a slot man - Myles White playing Jones' spot when he enters the game.
-Mike Clay (@MikeClayNFL)
Tavon Austin.
RT @BamaBoy_5 what rookie WR do you see being a star in the future? #askjerry
-Jerry Rice (@nfl)
(note: @nfl is not Jerry Rice’s official twitter account, although that would be pretty awesome. Instead, he used the account for a twitter Q&A session this week)
Discussed on the couch (coming out today), but don't underestimate Riley Cooper. He's a supreme athlete and knocking opp out of the park
Cooper 6'3" 220 runs in the low 4.5's and sick 4.15 SS 6.73 3C. Also proving to be aggressive as a runner and playing the ball in the air.
4.15 SS/6.73 3Cone compares favorably to Andre Roberts and Emmanuel Sanders from that 2010 WR class, except Cooper 4" taller, 30 lb heavier
-Sigmund Bloom (@SigmundBloom)
Know he's only a rookie, but Keenan Allen, at times, put on a route-running clinic against the Redskins. So good in short area w/ shoulders.
-Alen Dumonjic (@Dumonjic_Alen)
The Numbers Game
1st time this year Marvin Jones ran more routes in a game than Mohamed Sanu. 41 routes run to 38 of Sanu.
-Pro Football Focus (@PFF)
The Chargers have called a run on an absurd 70% of Ryan Mathews' snaps this year. They've called pass on 76% of Danny Woodhead's snaps
-Mike Clay (@MikeClayNFL)
(I noted this a couple of weeks into the season, called it unsustainable, and predicted it would regress in a big way. Instead, the splits have only become larger since. You would think such an obvious tell would have a huge negative impact on an offense, but somehow San Diego keeps humming right along. In case you needed more proof that NFL coaches are smarter than I am.)
Alfred Morris has not caught a pass since Week 2. I know he is not a big pass-catcher, but that REALLY caps his ceiling.
-Chad Parsons (@ChadParsonsNFL)
Jerricho Cotchery, Darrel Young & Riley Cooper had 4 more TDs than Charles/Peterson/Lynch/McCoy/Bryant/AJGreen/Gronk/Graham combined this wk
-Sigmund Bloom (@SigmundBloom)
(And this was before T.Y. Hilton added himself to that list)
#Patriots RB Stevan Ridley now has 393 yards & 6 TDs on his last 82 carries. 4.79 YPC. Butt-pat if you bought low.
-Evan Silva (@evansilva)
Andre Johnson barely scores because he's oddly not a part of the team's gameplan near the EZ.
That was only the 2nd time this season Andre Johnson was targeted while in the end zone. #texans
-Mike Clay (@MikeClayNFL)
Andre Johnson = 7-190-3 .. Every other player on both teams combined: 5-74-0
-Mike Clay (@MikeClayNFL)
(This was from midway through the game. Obviously some other players started putting up yards after that…)
Alex Smith is averaging 6.1 yards per attempt this year, putting him behind Thad Lewis, tied with Matt Barkley, but ahead of Brandon Weeden
-Chase Stuart (@fbgchase)
Mike Tolbert dominated the Panthers RB snaps yesterday. Was in on 44 plays. Williams (29) and Stewart (19) trailed.
-Mike Clay (@MikeClayNFL)
Ryan Mathews did, in fact, barely clear a dozen snaps. Ran the ball on 7 of his 15 snaps.
-Mike Clay (@MikeClayNFL)
Stephen Hill had been targeted on 20% of the Jets throws the last 3 weeks before today. 1-target effort is weird/outlier.
Stephen Hill 1-0-0-0 line looks even flukier today - was in on 52 snaps and ran team-high 24 routes. He'll be back.
-Mike Clay (@MikeClayNFL)
Amendola got lucky with some wide open catches yesterday. Was 3rd among NE WRs with 45 snaps. 4 targets = not enough
-Mike Clay (@MikeClayNFL)
However, since returning to the field, Rob Gronkowski has handled 32% of the Patriots targets.
-Mike Clay (@MikeClayNFL)
Pierre Garcon is on pace for 108 catches this season. The #Redskins' franchise record is 106, set by Art Monk in 1984.
-Grant Paulsen (@granthpaulsen)
#Redskins WR Pierre Garcon has at least 5 catches in every game this year and is 3rd in the NFL in targets. The TDs will come.
-Evan Silva (@evansilva)
Take away Eddie Lacy's concussion game, and the rookie RB is averaging 97.7 rushing yards per contest. Adrian Peterson NFL leader (88.9).
-Zach Kruse (@ZachKruse2)
Aaron Dobson's 59 targets leads the Patriots this season.
Aaron Dobson has been targeted while in or within 5 yards of the end zone 12 times already this year es.pn/177WtRu #Patriots
Said this before, but I really think Aaron Dobson can be a WR3 going forward. Make sure he's owned in all formats.
-Mike Clay (@MikeClayNFL)
Mike Tolbert has handled all 4 of the Panthers RB carries from the 1-yard line this year.
Since Mike Tolbert has joined the Panthers, Jonathan Stewart has record ONE carry inside the opponent's 5-yard line.
-Mike Clay (@MikeClayNFL)
Also of Interest
Ray Rice & Bernard Pierce are the 2 worst RBs in 2013 according to FO and ANS. So that's pretty good argument for OL's importance to run.
-Scott Kacsmar (@FO_ScottKacsmar)
Let's see if the Dolphins are using the running game to set up the abandonment of it.
-Rich Eisen (@richeisen)
They laughed at Mike Tice's Randy Ratio, but the "get the ball to your best player as often as possible" strategy is way underused in NFL
-Scott Kacsmar (@FO_ScottKacsmar)
Pretty clear Justin Blackmon is battling a serious addiction.. Not the time to pile on him. Pray for him.
-Mike Loyko (@NEPD_Loyko)
Richardson and Cunningham dicey this week. Might be Pead and Chase Reynolds backing Stacy up this week
-Mike Clay (@MikeClayNFL)
@MikeClayNFL nice, I have no idea if Chase Reynolds is a real person
-Ryan McDowell (@RyanMc23)
@RyanMc23 i just make guys up. no one reads that far into my tweets *stats stats stat zzzzzzzz next tweet*
-Mike Clay (@MikeClayNFL)
If DeMarco Murray could stay healthy, he'd be a top 5 dynasty RB right now. No question.
-Adam Harstad (@AdamHarstad)
Zac Stacy a fine example of why you stash unknown, talented backs (esp. when starter stinks). Drop that backup D/boring WR5
-Mike Clay (@MikeClayNFL)
When asked why he didn't play more football at Miami, Jimmy Graham has said "they didn't offer me enough cash."
-Chase Stuart (@fbgchase)
McCoy touchdown. Again, he had quote of the week re Terrelle Pryor: "I tried to recruit him to Pitt but we couldn't afford him."
-Andrew Brandt (@adbrandt)
Reminder: The Eagles offense just came off 8 quarters at home where they managed 3 points.
-Scott Kacsmar (@FO_ScottKacsmar)
Somehow, I suspect people will be less excited about Riley Cooper after his big game than they were about Marvin Jones. #ConfirmationBias
-Adam Harstad (@AdamHarstad)
Don't know why people question Raiders player development. Helped make Doug Martin a star last year. Making Nick Foles a legend today.
-George Bremer (@gmbremer)
I'd say Aaron Dobson has locked down the #2 WR job in New England. Drop Kenbrell.
-Mike Clay (@MikeClayNFL)
I'd like to apologize to my cousin's husband for starting Foles and Dobson, it was out of necessity and not brilliance, I promise.
-Jason Lisk (@JasonLisk)
My article for the New York Times this week is going to be "I have no idea what the [redacted] is going on in the NFL."
-Chase Stuart (@fbgchase)
Andre Johnson scores a long touchdown, proving that Week 9 is just trolling us.
-Chase Stuart (@fbgchase)
Go home Week 9, you're drunk
-Sigmund Bloom (@SigmundBloom)
Look what had to happen before Keenum got a chance. If u don't fit certain mold, get drafted at certain spot, it's long road for opportunity
-Paymon Shokoohi (@SetMyRoster)
It is telling they are running Donald Brown, not Richardson, up the middle inside the 10.
-Gregg Rosenthal (@greggrosenthal)
First and 10 at the 12 and Trent Richardson gets zero snaps. Why did you trade for him again?
-Mike Clay (@MikeClayNFL)
Keenum is a good example of why you shouldn't let the amount of time a kid spends under center vs shotgun influence decision. Can be learned
-Chris Brown (@smartfootball)
Selfishly hoped Gronk would have mediocre Wk 9 so ppl could get him in trades. Nah. Blowup. If you have him, you are positioned for a 'ship.
If you drafted Jimmy Graham, guessing youre 8-1/7-2. Maybe 9-0. Elite TEs create enormous edge while other clowns trot Charles Clay&G Olsen.
-Evan Silva (@evansilva)
Stash him where you can RT @jthom1: Fisher said rookie WR Stedman Bailey will get more playing time this week and into the future.
-Mike Clay (@MikeClayNFL)
The number of leagues where I'm ranked a lot higher in total pts than I am in terms of W/L record is heartbreaking. #FFProblems
-Mike Clay (@MikeClayNFL)
(I think all of my leagues should switch to all-play, with the exception of the leagues where my head-to-head record is better than my points scored ranking would indicate.)
Even though he rarely played the first month of the season, Zac Stacy is still RB23. He's RB2 overall over the past 4 weeks.
-Ryan McDowell (@RyanMc23)
"There are too many variables" argument regarding football is specious. An infinite number of variables exists for almost any model.
-Trey Causey (@treycausey)
(Truth. Historical modeling and statistical projection systems aren’t perfect, but then again, neither is the alternative. They have a strong track record, and shouldn’t be ignored.)
CJ Spiller fully cleared? Last chance to buy low.
-Mike Clay (@MikeClayNFL)
Foster is “meeting with doctors”. Sounds like more than simple back spasms. Choppy waters may be ahead.
Foster needed epidural injection for what was called “disc irritation” in training camp. Good chance latest issue is related.
-Jene Bramel (@JeneBramel)
Has there ever been a year where so many top RBs saw value decimated? 9 of top 20 from Aug ADP are way down. Only see 6 significant risers.
-Ryan McDowell (@RyanMc23)
Always fun to play the speculative add for the end of your bench game - Justin Hunter , Markus Wheaton
-Mike Clay (@MikeClayNFL)
Kendall Wright
Very quietly, the Titans' Kendall Wright is becoming a dangerous WR. Sits just outside PFF's top 20 in yards per route run (1.93).
-Rams Herd (@RamsHerd)
If Kendall Wright sprinkled in a few TDs his quiet good season wouldn't be nearly as quiet. I do think the TDs will eventually come.
-Paymon Shokoohi (@SetMyRoster)
Kendall Wright on pace for 90 receptions. Coaches call him "almost uncoverable" with potential to be a top playmaker
-Chris Wesseling (@ChrisWesseling)
Wright's average is only so low because of how he is used. He's used that way because of the other WRs they have, not because of his ability
-Cian Fahey (@Cianaf)
What makes Kendall Wright dangerous is that he doesn't lose speed when changing direction & every move is made going upfield
-Emory Hunt (@FBallGameplan)
Kendall Wright must be on pace for a record number of targets/catches on third down.
Kendall Wright is one of the best young WRs in the NFL. No question about it
-Cian Fahey (@Cianaf)
Tanking
use potential pts instead of record for draft order. or a draft lottery for top 3-5 RT @JoeMo724 what do you do about tanking? Penalties?
Make it explicit in rules: Every tm expected to field competitive lineup & otherwise not undermine competitive spirit (in commish judgment)
Some "tanking" debatable. It can be in teams best interest to not cover a bye. Owners should be allowed to make unorthodox lineup choices.
But intentionally starting a worse lineup than the best one your roster could field is a cardinal FF sin. No patience for that.
Some lgs have toilet bowl bracket, throw in a pool for a wk 17 best lineup prize, find other creative ways to keep eliminated teams engaged
-Sigmund Bloom (@SigmundBloom)
(For what it’s worth, I use an “all of the above” strategy. I’m a huge fan of slotting draft position by potential points, because there’s no longer any reason not to start your best lineup every week. I also play in leagues with a strong commissioner and a constitution that empowers him to act to preserve league integrity where necessary. I also run some leagues where the teams that miss the playoffs engage in a survivor-style “losers bracket”, with the winner receiving an extra pick at the very end of the first round.)
Second Thoughts
Aaron Rodgers injured injured his non-throwing shoulder on the first series of Green Bay's game this week. Given my stance on injured players, some might wonder whether I made some trade offers for him. The answer, as it always is, is "of course". Unfortunately, Rodgers' injury seems as if it might be the worst possible kind. It's too long-term of an injury for his owners to tread water too well waiting for his return, but too short-term of an injury for any non-owners to capitalize on any panic and buy low. I'm not meaning to suggest that there are "good" injuries and "bad" injuries, and I certainly would never wish injury on anyone; however, I'm a pragmatist. I'm a fan of a violent sport, and injuries are an inevitability. When they do happen, I appreciate when they at least create a market inefficiency that I can exploit for extra value.
Speaking of market inefficiencies... according to Ryan McDowell of DynastyLeagueFootball.com, Tavon Austin's ADP during their midseason dynasty mocks has fallen to WR36, down from a preseason ADP of WR20. Yes, I understand that Tavon Austin has looked thoroughly awful during his first 9 games, but part of that is being a rookie. It's great when rookies perform like gangbusters right out of the gate, but not all of them do. Some of the best players in the league today where absolutely terrible as rookies. And it's too soon to even close the book on Tavon Austin's rookie season, anyway. Through nine games, Austin has 207 receiving yards. Through nine games in his rookie season, Michael Floyd had... you guessed it, 207 receiving yards. And that was even after a big day in week 9- Floyd only had 127 yards through his first eight games. Yet now that's all long forgotten, and Floyd is seen nearly unanimously as a better prospect than Austin. Justin Blackmon had 250 yards through his first 9 games. Vincent Jackson had 1 reception for 18 yards through his first 9 games (he finished his rookie year with 3 receptions for 59 yards.) Demaryius Thomas had 97 yards in his first game and 183 the rest of the way his rookie year. I'm not saying that it's a good thing that Tavon Austin has sucked so far. I could just as easily point out cases where a lack of rookie production was the first sign that a player was a bust. I'm saying that sometimes good players suck as rookies. It's too soon to be writing off Tavon Austin, a guy who was talented enough to command a top-10 pick in the NFL draft. And if the Tavon Austin owner in your league disagrees, then now is the time to buy him cheap.
To some extent, I wonder how much Tavon Austin is hurt by the fact that he's on the field so much, which means his struggles are easy to see. A rookie who is so bad that he barely cracks the rotation won't be as visibly terrible, but that doesn't mean he's any better than another rookie who is just as bad, but gets a ton of snaps. Tavon Austin has played on 305 snaps and run 235 routes. On those routes, he's received 51 targets, which he's converted into 207 yards. Cordarrelle Patterson, on the other hand, has played on 129 snaps and run 87 routes. On those routes, he's received 24 targets, which he's converted into 146 yards. Clearly, Patterson is much more efficient at converting his routes into targets (27.6% targets per route vs. 21.7% targets per route), and converting his targets to yards (6.1 yards per target vs. 4.1 yards per target). But how much should we penalize Patterson for his inability to get on the field? Is it a negative that St. Louis is playing Austin so much despite his struggles, or is it a positive? It's a difficult question without a clear answer. My preference is the same for both players- point out that they're both rookies, and give them both a mulligan for their poor production.
The single-game statistical leaderboards are always a bit random, because it's much more likely that some random nobody can sustain huge production for 60 minutes than it is that he can sustain it for weeks or years to get on the season or career leaderboards. Even with that in mind, how shocking is it to see Nick Foles sitting tied for the most touchdowns in league history? Peyton Manning set a record this year by throwing for 19 touchdowns before his first interception. At the time, who knew that the record might not last the entire season? Nick Foles is currently sitting at 13 touchdowns without an INT, which means he could break that record as early as next week. What do I think about Foles going forward? Two weeks ago, I wrote the following: "In the long term, I want to own as much stock as possible in starters in the Philadelphia Eagles system... I'm a fan of buying tickets in that lottery (such as Foles, Desean, and Vick) in the hopes that they hit big. In the short term, we'll probably see both Vick and Foles get a couple more chances, and if we're lucky one of them might finally put the competition to bed and earn an extended commitment as a starter." I would think that a 7-touchdown game should accomplish exactly that- put the competition to bed and earn Foles an extended commitment. If so, that makes Foles a high-upside quarterback in a fantastic offense. While his sample size this season isn't enough for me to go too far, remembering how often preseason predictions trump small sample sizes at estimating production going forward, I do think that Foles is currently one of the best, if not THE best, possible QB2s in a standard dynasty format. Fill-ins and stopgaps are always available for pennies in dynasty leagues. For your backup quarterback position, devote the roster space to guys with all-universe upside, no matter how long the odds, and then pray for a couple of hits. If this last week qualifies as Nick Foles' upside (and I would venture that it does), I would definitely describe that as "all-universe".
Best of luck to everyone in their Week 9 games. I'll see you back here next week with plenty of NFL action to break down and plenty of dynasty implications to discuss!
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