Fantasy Football Hates the Olds
Society loves youth and all the perceptions accompanying it: new beginnings, energy, optimism, innovation, beauty, vitality, and potential. Beeing the microcosm of society that it is, fantasy football embraces youth for similar reasons.
When it comes to young talent, fantasy GMs are drawn to the perception of great potential and the unspoiled athletic resources to fulfill it. We didn't see Marvin Harrison Jr. play a lick of pro football, but forget any analysis that points out his shortcomings and the skills that were missing from his game to become an elite producer immediately.
Harrison's youth and athletic ability were going to magically cross the divide between potential and reality. Kyler Murray, who might as well be the QB equivalent of Me-Shawn Johnson, was far from the ideal quarterback to help Harrison get there.
Conversely, society hates the olds. They fear decline and death with every fiber of their being, and it's what fantasy GMs see.
For most of the fantasy community, they'd rather be a year early than a year too late. How did that work out for you with Derrick Henry and Saquon Barkley last year? How about 33-year-old Adam Thielen the year before as WR18?
Who are we writing off this year in fantasy leagues? Nick Chubb and DeAndre Hopkins have July values hovering at the end of the 15th round.
As outlandish as it sounds, could they become 2025's versions of the Fantasy Expendables in the most ironic sense of the title? As someone who didn't write off Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, Rob Gronkowski, Antonio Gates, Tony Gonzalez, and several others considered "too old," Chubb and Hopkins match the archetype of players who hit later in their careers, even after injuries.
Here are the past five years of top fantasy performers above the age of 30 -- exact age in parentheses after the stats.
The Old Folks' Home (2020-2024)
- Aaron Jones (2024) RB12: 306 touches, 1,546 yards, and 7 TDs (30).
- Mike Evans (2024) WR12: 74 catches, 1,004 yards, and 11 TDs (31).
- Travis Kelce (2023) TE3: 93 catches, 984 yards, and 5 TDs (34).
- Raheem Mostert (2023) RB5: 234 touches, 1,187 yards, and 21 TDs (31).
- DeAndre Hopkins (2023) WR22: 75 catches, 1,057 yards, and 7 scores (31).
- Mike Evans (2023) WR7: 79 catches, 1,255 yards, and 13 scores (30).
- Davante Adams (2022) WR3: 100 catches, 1,516 yards, and 14 scores (30).
- Tyler Lockett (2022) WR13: 84 catches, 1,033 yards, and 9 scores (30).
- Travis Kelce (2022) TE1: 110 catches, 1,338 yards, and 12 scores (33).
- Tom Brady (2021) QB2: 5,344 total yards and 45 total touchdowns (44).
- Aaron Rodgers (2021) QB5: 4,216 total yards and 40 total touchdowns (38).
- Travis Kelce (2021)TE2: 92 catches, 1,125 yards, and 9 touchdowns (32).
- Rob Gronkowski (2021) TE7: 55 catches, 802 yards, and 6 scores in 12 games (32).
- Rob Gronkowski (2020) TE9: 45 catches, 623 yards, and 7 scores in 11 games (31).
- Travis Kelce (2020) TE1: 105 catches, 1,416 yards, and 11 scores (31).
- Marvin Jones Jr. (2020) WR18: 76 catches, 978 yards, and 9 scores (30).
- Adam Thielen (2020) WR10: 74 catches, 925 yards, and 14 scores (30).
- Tom Brady (2020) QB7: 4,663 total yards and 43 total touchdowns (43).
- Aaron Rodgers (2020) QB3: 4,448 total yards and 51 total touchdowns (37).
We could keep going all the way back to Antonio Gates, Tony Gonzalez, Isaac Bruce, Derrick Mason, Curtis Martin, LaDainian Tomlinson, Marvin Harrison Sr., Peyton Manning, and Tim Brown. That's before we even mention Jerry Rice.
Yes, but these players are the outliers. Guess what? After the 12th round of most drafts, the entire appeal of the player pool is the potential for them to be outliers.
We're just more conditioned to embrace youth and fear age. That's a bias that wise fantasy GMs can leverage.
Considering Nick Chubb and DeAndre Hopkins are available this late, it's a smart endgame play in your drafts, because they still possess higher ceilings than most players +/- 18 picks from their current value. A look at players who have transcended the traditional limits of age provides us with worthwhile fantasy insights that fuel optimism for Chubb and Hopkins as late-round stabs.
Fantasy Insights from the Old Folks' Home
For most of the seasons listed, these players hiked over the age cliff. Their valuations reflected doubt and fear of taking a risk. Fantasy GMs perceived value missed on their actual production.
The first two things you probably noticed from the Fantasy Old Folks' Home of 2020-2024 are that many of the same names appear on the list multiple times, and they are great players. This is true, but let's dig deeper.
Fantasy Insight No. 1: Season-Ending Injuries Only Temporarily Slowed Their Careers
- Raheem Mostert and Saquon Barkley had season-ending knee surgeries during their careers before reaching 30.
- Travis Kelce had microfracture surgery on his knee as a rookie.
- Rob Gronkowski tore his ACL and MCL in 2013.
- Tom Brady tore his ACL in 2008.
- Curtis Martin played through a Grade 3 MCL tear on his way to a rushing title in 2004.
- Peyton Manning and Antonio Gates worked through serious career-threatening injuries.
Fantasy Insight No. 2: High Degrees of Technical and Conceptual Skill
The runners all possess excellent game management within the scope of the play design, possess the technique to win collisions, and the footwork and vision to set up blocks. Barkley, Mostert, and Henry still possessed burst, long speed, and fantasy value.
The quarterbacks all possessed great management of tight pockets, accurate processing of defenses pre- and early post-snap, and got rid of the ball fast and with anticipation and placement. They showed that fantasy value transcending dual-threat status is about pocket prowess.
The receivers all possess strong route skills and can read the defense with the same nuance as their quarterbacks. These "expendable" fantasy vets have mastered the techniques to defeat press-man coverage and still have the short-area quickness and burst to earn separation. Most of all, these receivers win in tight windows with excellent attack techniques and tracking of the football.
The "expendable" fantasy tight ends have a lot in common with the receivers. They may not defeat man-to-man coverage against top cornerbacks as they did in their prime, but they still uncover well at the top of routes and make contested catches with great position against the coverage. They retained their short-area quickness, and their route skills against zone coverage are aligned with even the best field generals under center.
Fantasy Insight No. 3: Proven Excellence with Multiple Teams
Sixteen of the players mentioned above demonstrated fantasy excellence after their original teams parted ways with them. Some might say the teams didn't believe the players had anything left. In some cases, this was true.
In other cases, the teams recognized they were entering a youth movement, and it was more cost-effective and beneficial in the long term for young teammates to establish a productive nucleus.
Fantasy GMs tend to perceive this parting of ways as a signal that these proven players are no longer worthwhile. Let's examine the factors that make Nick Chubb and DeAndre Hopkins compelling options to fit this age-transcendent archetype.
Nick Chubb: A Fantasy Age-Transcendant Outlier?
Considering the narratives associated with Chubb, he's easy to write off in fantasy drafts.
- He turns 30 in December.
- He's two years removed from a second triple-tear of ligaments to his knee.
- The Browns didn't re-sign him.
- Chubb took a one-year deal behind Joe Mixon for less money than offered elsewhere.
- Chubb didn't produce at a high level when he returned last year.
The first lesson wise investors will tell you is to learn to see opportunity when other people see fear. I'm sure many of you feel some form of fear when I tell you that gambling on Chubb in this range is a worthwhile opportunity because there are no non-QB +/-18 picks of him who offer a remotely similar ceiling as a top-12 fantasy producer at their position.
That statement is an opinion without supporting evidence. Let's give you some reasons why Chubb still offers that high of a fantasy ceiling.
After all, I realize that some of you will accuse me of favoritism because I was steadfast on Chubb as a top NFL prospect.
The Browns' Offensive Line Was Worse Than Its Metrics
Although Cleveland had some good run-blocking metrics that placed the offense in the upper half of the league as a ground game, context matters in the NFL and fantasy football.
Cleveland was like a boxer with an ineffective jab. If an opponent knows the jab is worthless, they'll let them land it.
Boxing metrics will cite the high accuracy of the punch. Boxing analysts who interpret metrics well will explain that the jab is creating an opening for the opponent to throw effective combinations that help the opponent out-point the jab-thrower in every round.
At this point, who cares about the metrics? Cleveland's run game was a worthless jab for the NFL and fantasy GMs.
The Browns' defense allowed 25.6 points per game -- among the league's worst units. The Browns' offense averaged 15.2 points per game -- worst in the NFL.
The run-blocking metrics for adjusted yards before contact and run-block win rates were solid-to-good, but the real story is that opponents were beating Cleveland by an average of 10.4 points per game. If you're up by two scores, you want your opponent to run, it eats more clock.
If opposing defenses were concerned about Cleveland's ground game, they'd stack boxes to stop it. Guess whose offense only saw stacked boxes on 17.5% of its snaps? Yep, among the league's worst.
This line also dealt with injuries to its tackles and poor quarterback play. It wasn't a recipe for opposing defenses to fear the run, and the fantasy value for the ground game was minimal.
Nick Chubb Was Better Than the Metrics Indicate
When Nick Chubb entered the lineup, opponents used at least seven men in the box on 43 percent of his snaps and at least six men on 82 percent of his snaps. The fantasy world often glosses over this context.
Pct. of Runs with Defenders Stacking the Box
| Player | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NICk Chubb | 53% | 26% | 8% | 0% | 2% | 89% |
| Jerome Ford | 55% | 10% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 67% |
| Pierre Strong Jr | 45% | 9% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 54% |
| D'Onta Foreman | 54% | 25% | 8% | 3% | 0% | 90% |
Ford and Strong earned 130 carries and scored 3 rushing touchdowns. They earned the ball in situations where the defense was mostly in a neutral run-pass alignment or favoring the pass.
Although Chubb and Foreman had lower yards-per-carry averages than Ford and Strong, they earned 36 percent of their carries against defenses favoring the run. Foreman didn't score on 71 rushing attempts.
Chubb scored 3 times on 102 carries. He also scored with one of his five receptions. With only eight games played, Chubb was RB48.
Considering the quality of the line, game scripts favoring the defense, and bad quarterback play, Chubb wasn't as bad as the data may appear. I railed against fantasy analysts and fans claiming they saw a decline in Saquon Barkley and Derrick Henry's athletic ability prior to their changes of scenery.
Tried to tell you about Derrick Henry since last year…#RavensFlock https://t.co/a5A7EiY4dH pic.twitter.com/bJXn9F6LtF
— Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman) September 30, 2024
Given the circumstances, I can't say I saw a difference with Chubb. Was it likely that the time requirements of his knee injuries slowed his short-term recovery more than usual from weekly punishment? Yes.
But was Chubb's vision, quickness, footwork, and cutting ability still there when I watched him last year?
Not a ton to see result-wise with Nick Chubb's return. The OL play was not strong.
— Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman) October 21, 2024
Still, you want to see deceleration and reacceleration with changes of direction. This play is promising in respect to his recovery. #Browns pic.twitter.com/JXINW0ERX5
Nice peripheral vision and timing by Nick Chubb to avoid edge penetration into the backfield. It's the difference between a 1-yard loss and a 3-yard gain on 1st and 5 from the 5. #ClevelandBrowns pic.twitter.com/Fd0VrlPztZ
— Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman) November 24, 2024
#browns Nick Chubb showing some nice C.O.D. quicks on this nullified play. pic.twitter.com/RMT2xPrVWY
— Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman) October 21, 2024
Most fantasy analysts will talk about noticing players losing a step. As an independent NFL scout with 20 years of experience who has worked with RB, WR, and QB coaches of major college and pro players, I can tell you it's difficult to see this loss in athletic ability as so many analysts proclaim.
Thinking it was maybe me, I asked multiple NFL scouts and former players this question. They shared the same opinion: They can rarely tell.
Mike Tomlin couldn't tell last year when asked about Chubb. He said Chubb looked like the same guy to him, just behind a struggling offense.