Dynasty Trade Value Chart: July

July can feel like the quiet before the storm. The kickoff of the 2025 NFL season is now less than 100 days away, but despite how close we are to Week 1, the first few weeks of July may be the slowest stretch on the calendar in terms of dynasty-relevant news. While the lack of needle-moving headlines means we probably won’t see any wild value swings, that doesn’t mean player values are completely stagnant. There’s still an edge for sharp dynasty managers who can stay ahead of the typical dynasty calendar.

During the long offseason, people tend to focus on building “pretty” rosters loaded with youth and long-term upside, which often leads to veteran players becoming undervalued. That trend tends to reverse as the season approaches. For example, in a June Superflex startup I participated in, Christian McCaffrey was still available in the sixth round. By September, I expect him to climb firmly back into the Top 40 picks. His short-term impact is simply too high for him not to.

It’s not just aging stars who see their value rise. As we approach the start of the regular season, redraft ADP starts to exert more influence on dynasty values. Rashee Rice has been a steady riser all offseason in best ball drafts and looks headed toward a mid-2nd-round ADP. If Rice, as a 25-year-old wide receiver, becomes a consensus Top 20 pick in 2025 redraft leagues, it’s hard to imagine he stays outside the consensus Top 40 in dynasty formats.

One of my favorite dynasty exercises every summer is to build a simple model that predicts any player’s dynasty ADP using just three factors:

• Redraft ADP
• Age
• Position

The goal isn’t to rely on the model’s dynasty rankings as the final answer. Instead, it helps identify players who might be mispriced — those with a large gap between their predicted dynasty ADP and current market value. If there’s no strong reason for that discrepancy, it often signals a buying or selling opportunity. This predictive dynasty ADP model, along with the most interesting outliers it reveals, will be a key focus of this month’s Dynasty Trade Value Chart article.

About the Model

I built the predictive model using Random Forest regression. Random Forest is an ensemble machine learning method that constructs hundreds of decision trees and combines their results to produce more reliable predictions. Unlike simple linear models, Random Forest can capture complex, non-linear relationships between variables, making it ideal for projecting dynasty ADP based on factors such as age, position, and current best-ball ADP. 

Below, we will examine each player whose predicted dynasty ADP in the model differs significantly from their actual dynasty ADP, aiming to determine if there is an opportunity to gain an edge on our competitors by leveraging the logical results of early 2025 best ball ADP. 

Note: 2025 Redraft ADP is taken from Drafters, which has the sharpest ADP of any source for PPR scoring (in my opinion). 

Quarterback

The list of potentially undervalued quarterbacks based on 2025 redraft ADP and age is fascinating. The most obvious example is Jalen Hurts, whose dynasty value appears lower than his age-adjusted redraft ADP suggests. That is likely because both redraft and dynasty drafters are considering the possibility that his heavy rushing workload could lead to an earlier decline than most quarterbacks. I think both groups are correct, and Hurts is not actually undervalued in dynasty formats.

We see a similar pattern with J.J. McCarthy and Trevor Lawrence, who come in higher in best ball drafts than their dynasty value would suggest when adjusting for age. Best ball drafters tend to be more aggressive in chasing upside and are more willing to take on risk, which helps explain the gap. Neither McCarthy nor Lawrence stands out as a clear dynasty value right now, although both have the potential to move up quickly if they play well in 2025. Even if they are not currently undervalued, both make for solid trade targets since their upside may not be fully priced in.

The one quarterback on this list who appears to be a true dynasty value is Brock Purdy. Based on early Vegas lines, the 49ers are projected to be the seventh-highest scoring team in 2025. Best ball drafters are buying into Purdy's upside, but dynasty managers still seem hesitant. Purdy offers sneaky rushing ability and benefits from playing in an elite offensive system with excellent surrounding talent. If he delivers another strong season, I expect his dynasty value to rise significantly, and I like the chances that it happens.

I do not view Patrick Mahomes II or Justin Herbert as overvalued. Dynasty drafters are paying a premium for certainty and proven production. You can feel confident projecting both Mahomes and Herbert as long-term starters. The bigger question is whether they will provide enough short-term fantasy impact to justify their current ADP in single-quarterback leagues. I would not go out of my way to target either in that format, but I do not believe they are overrated.

Michael Penix Jr. is going late enough that it is worth betting on his long-term upside. The model may be slightly undervaluing him because he is about the same age as younger stars, such as C.J. Stroud.

The other three quarterbacks on this list may actually be a bit overvalued at the moment. Dynasty drafters seem more confident in C.J. Stroud having a bounce-back season than best ball drafters are. If Stroud is not projected as a top-12 quarterback for 2025, you are essentially spending an early-round dynasty pick on a backup-caliber player. That is tough to justify given how deep the position is.

Bo Nix is also being drafted as a starter in dynasty formats, but it is hard to envision him providing a weekly advantage at the position. He is fine, but there is probably more value in waiting five rounds for someone like Brock Purdy. The two are virtually the same age and have nearly identical redraft ADPs. There should not be such a wide gap between their startup ADPs.

On to the other positions.