Dynasty Trade Value Chart: July

July can feel like the quiet before the storm. The kickoff of the 2025 NFL season is now less than 100 days away, but despite how close we are to Week 1, the first few weeks of July may be the slowest stretch on the calendar in terms of dynasty-relevant news. While the lack of needle-moving headlines means we probably won’t see any wild value swings, that doesn’t mean player values are completely stagnant. There’s still an edge for sharp dynasty managers who can stay ahead of the typical dynasty calendar.

During the long offseason, people tend to focus on building “pretty” rosters loaded with youth and long-term upside, which often leads to veteran players becoming undervalued. That trend tends to reverse as the season approaches. For example, in a June Superflex startup I participated in, Christian McCaffrey was still available in the sixth round. By September, I expect him to climb firmly back into the Top 40 picks. His short-term impact is simply too high for him not to.

It’s not just aging stars who see their value rise. As we approach the start of the regular season, redraft ADP starts to exert more influence on dynasty values. Rashee Rice has been a steady riser all offseason in best ball drafts and looks headed toward a mid-2nd-round ADP. If Rice, as a 25-year-old wide receiver, becomes a consensus Top 20 pick in 2025 redraft leagues, it’s hard to imagine he stays outside the consensus Top 40 in dynasty formats.

One of my favorite dynasty exercises every summer is to build a simple model that predicts any player’s dynasty ADP using just three factors:

• Redraft ADP
• Age
• Position

The goal isn’t to rely on the model’s dynasty rankings as the final answer. Instead, it helps identify players who might be mispriced — those with a large gap between their predicted dynasty ADP and current market value. If there’s no strong reason for that discrepancy, it often signals a buying or selling opportunity. This predictive dynasty ADP model, along with the most interesting outliers it reveals, will be a key focus of this month’s Dynasty Trade Value Chart article.

About the Model

I built the predictive model using Random Forest regression. Random Forest is an ensemble machine learning method that constructs hundreds of decision trees and combines their results to produce more reliable predictions. Unlike simple linear models, Random Forest can capture complex, non-linear relationships between variables, making it ideal for projecting dynasty ADP based on factors such as age, position, and current best-ball ADP. 

Below, we will examine each player whose predicted dynasty ADP in the model differs significantly from their actual dynasty ADP, aiming to determine if there is an opportunity to gain an edge on our competitors by leveraging the logical results of early 2025 best ball ADP. 

Note: 2025 Redraft ADP is taken from Drafters, which has the sharpest ADP of any source for PPR scoring (in my opinion). 

Quarterback

The list of potentially undervalued quarterbacks based on 2025 redraft ADP and age is fascinating. The most obvious example is Jalen Hurts, whose dynasty value appears lower than his age-adjusted redraft ADP suggests. That is likely because both redraft and dynasty drafters are considering the possibility that his heavy rushing workload could lead to an earlier decline than most quarterbacks. I think both groups are correct, and Hurts is not actually undervalued in dynasty formats.

We see a similar pattern with J.J. McCarthy and Trevor Lawrence, who come in higher in best ball drafts than their dynasty value would suggest when adjusting for age. Best ball drafters tend to be more aggressive in chasing upside and are more willing to take on risk, which helps explain the gap. Neither McCarthy nor Lawrence stands out as a clear dynasty value right now, although both have the potential to move up quickly if they play well in 2025. Even if they are not currently undervalued, both make for solid trade targets since their upside may not be fully priced in.

The one quarterback on this list who appears to be a true dynasty value is Brock Purdy. Based on early Vegas lines, the 49ers are projected to be the seventh-highest scoring team in 2025. Best ball drafters are buying into Purdy's upside, but dynasty managers still seem hesitant. Purdy offers sneaky rushing ability and benefits from playing in an elite offensive system with excellent surrounding talent. If he delivers another strong season, I expect his dynasty value to rise significantly, and I like the chances that it happens.

I do not view Patrick Mahomes II or Justin Herbert as overvalued. Dynasty drafters are paying a premium for certainty and proven production. You can feel confident projecting both Mahomes and Herbert as long-term starters. The bigger question is whether they will provide enough short-term fantasy impact to justify their current ADP in single-quarterback leagues. I would not go out of my way to target either in that format, but I do not believe they are overrated.

Michael Penix Jr. is going late enough that it is worth betting on his long-term upside. The model may be slightly undervaluing him because he is about the same age as younger stars, such as C.J. Stroud.

The other three quarterbacks on this list may actually be a bit overvalued at the moment. Dynasty drafters seem more confident in C.J. Stroud having a bounce-back season than best ball drafters are. If Stroud is not projected as a top-12 quarterback for 2025, you are essentially spending an early-round dynasty pick on a backup-caliber player. That is tough to justify given how deep the position is.

Bo Nix is also being drafted as a starter in dynasty formats, but it is hard to envision him providing a weekly advantage at the position. He is fine, but there is probably more value in waiting five rounds for someone like Brock Purdy. The two are virtually the same age and have nearly identical redraft ADPs. There should not be such a wide gap between their startup ADPs.

On to the other positions.

Running Back

This is another very interesting group of players the model views as undervalued compared to current dynasty ADP. Here are the players I believe the model has correctly identified as values:

Chase Brown is someone I have been consistently banging the table for in this column for more than a year. I still believe he is undervalued, even though his ADP has climbed into the back half of the fourth round. Brown has locked down the workhorse role in one of the NFL’s top offenses and brings serious PPR upside. He is only 25 years old and still has two years remaining on his rookie contract.

Jordan Mason is another player the model is high on, and I believe that is justified. Best ball drafters see Mason as a safe option in what should be a strong Minnesota offense. The improvements to the offensive line are especially intriguing. Mason’s value also reflects concerns about Aaron Jones, who is aging and has an extensive injury history. Mason could be a league winner if Jones misses time. The model is correct in highlighting that Mason’s current dynasty ADP of 143.6 is about two rounds too low.

The rest of the players on this list feel either properly valued or only slightly undervalued. Dynasty drafters are clearly baking in injury concerns with players like J.K. Dobbins, Tyjae Spears, Aaron Jones, Tony Pollard, and Ken Walker III, which explains why they are being drafted a bit later than their age and redraft ADP would suggest.

Alvin Kamara and James Conner may also be undervalued, but their age limits their appeal to contending teams, which naturally suppresses their dynasty market.

The two most interesting names on this list are Chuba Hubbard and D’Andre Swift. Both are 26-year-old backs going in the fifth and sixth rounds of best ball drafts. Based on that profile, you would expect similar startup ADPs in dynasty. However, dynasty managers are understandably cautious given the uncertainty about their long-term starting roles. Despite being just 26, neither is a safe bet to be a lead back beyond 2025. I share that concern with Swift, but I am more optimistic that Hubbard could string together a multi-year run as the starter in Carolina.

Trey Benson is likely stuck behind James Conner for at least one more season, but I do not believe he is overvalued. The long-term upside is still there. Dylan Sampson is also fine at his current ADP, though there are some Day 3 rookie running backs going later who offer similar upside.

I agree with the model’s suggestion that the rest of the players on this list are being drafted too early in dynasty startups. Saquon Barkley was outstanding last season, but the track record for 28-year-old running backs taken this early in startup drafts is poor. We saw that play out with Christian McCaffrey in 2024.

I do not understand why Tyrone Tracy remains in the top 80 in dynasty ADP. He entered the league as an older prospect and appears stuck in a committee on what looks like a weak offense.

The situation in Jacksonville also raises red flags for both Travis Etienne Jr. and Tank Bigsby. The Jaguars’ actions this offseason made it clear they do not view either player as a long-term starter. The team would have selected Ashton Jeanty if they had not been able to trade up for Travis Hunter, they strongly considered trading up for RJ Harvey, and they still spent multiple Day 3 picks on running backs after missing on their top targets.

Wide Receiver

This is a spot where I believe the model has identified some strong dynasty targets. A number of the wide receivers on this list are already among my favorite targets in startup drafts.

Rashee Rice is near the top of that list. The dynasty market has not caught up to his best ball ADP of 20th overall. He is going right alongside players like A.J. Brown and Ladd McConkey in redraft, both of whom are being drafted much earlier in dynasty leagues. The off-field concerns may explain part of the discrepancy, but once training camp starts and people see that Rice is healthy and locked in as Patrick Mahomes II's top target, it is hard to imagine his dynasty value not rising significantly over the next two months.

Jameson Williams is another standout. It is unusual to see a 24-year-old wide receiver, who entered the league as a first-round pick, with an exciting skill set, coming off a breakout season, and being drafted in the fourth round of best ball, yet going multiple rounds later in dynasty startups. I'm not sure what's driving that disconnect, but it feels like best-ball drafters are ahead of the curve on this one.

Ricky Pearsall is another player the model is right to highlight. He was an older rookie and got off to a slow start in 2024, though there were good reasons for that. Best ball drafters are now buying into his upside after he finished the season strong. Pearsall looks like a strong candidate for a second-year breakout after battling injuries as a rookie. We saw a similar pattern with Jaxon Smith-Njigba last season, who carried a similar best ball ADP around this time a year ago.

Josh Downs is easy to overlook because it feels like he has been around longer, but he is still just 23 years old entering his third NFL season. Despite dealing with injuries and poor quarterback play, Downs has produced solid numbers for a player his age. Best-ball drafters are clearly optimistic, pushing his ADP into the middle of the seventh round. My guess is his dynasty ADP will also rise closer to that range. At his current ninth-round startup ADP, he looks like a steal.

The rest of the players on this list are also solid values at their current ADP. I am especially interested in adding players like Jauan Jennings, Darnell Mooney, Calvin Ridley, Khalil Shakir, and Rashid Shaheed to a contending dynasty roster. These types of players often receive little attention during the offseason, but once the season begins, injuries accumulate, bye weeks arise, and contenders focus on winning games, they become significantly more attractive. You need depth players like these on your bench if you plan to compete for a title.

As a Buckeye fan, I am not thrilled that one-third of the players on this list are former Ohio State receivers. While I believe most of the players here have reasonable explanations for their current dynasty value and are not truly overvalued, there are a few that I think the model has accurately flagged as being drafted too high.

Jalen McMillan made a splash late in his rookie season, but that production came largely due to injuries to stars Chris Godwin and Mike Evans, leaving McMillan as the last man standing for a stretch, and then the WR2 when Evans returned. He is currently expected to enter the season as the WR4 on the depth chart. It is hard to justify a 10th-round dynasty ADP for a player who is not even projected to be a top-three option on his own team and will be nearly 24 years old by the start of the season.

Best ball drafters have cooled considerably on both Jack Bech and Jaylin Noel in recent months after both were working almost exclusively with the backups during OTAs, while other rookies on their teams earned more first-team reps. I do not think either ADP is egregious, but there are probably better targets in that range.

As for the rest of the list, most of the players are either appropriately valued or only slightly overpriced in dynasty formats. We can mostly disregard Brandon Aiyuk's appearance here, since injury is clearly playing a major role in his redraft ADP.

There are a few players on this list who are not significantly overvalued by my estimation, but their current ADPs carry more risk than most drafters are factoring in. Rome Odunze is worth the gamble, but I can see why the model is more cautious on him than the dynasty community is. The model does not account for draft pedigree, which likely explains part of the gap. Odunze is a year older than Xavier Worthy and is being drafted 24.5 spots behind Worthy in 2025 redraft leagues. Despite that, Odunze is coming off the board earlier than Worthy in dynasty startups. I do not necessarily disagree with those who have Odunze ranked higher, but the significant two-round difference in redraft ADP is worth considering. Odunze is the type of player whose value could drop quickly if he has another disappointing season.

I would put Marvin Harrison Jr. and Jaxon Smith-Njigba in that same category. Both are still young, and best ball drafters are giving them the benefit of the doubt, but each could see a sharp decline in dynasty value if they fail to live up to their current third-round redraft ADPs.

Tight End

The model identified a large group of tight ends who appear slightly undervalued, but only one player showed a gap of more than 10 spots between projected ADP and actual ADP. That player happens to be my favorite target at the position, Tucker Kraft.

Kraft is still young and has been generating excitement among best ball drafters, which is reflected in his 11th-round ADP. I agree with the model’s assessment that Kraft should be going at least a round earlier in dynasty startups. He is one of the few affordable options at the position with both long-term upside and strong short-term opportunity.

I believe the model has incorrectly identified the bottom seven players on this list as being overvalued. In the case of the Baltimore tight ends, you have to consider the strong possibility that they will be on separate teams by 2026, which would significantly boost the long-term upside for both. Colston Loveland is likely falling further in best ball drafts than he should, mostly because he has been unable to practice. If Loveland is back on the field and looking good by the end of training camp, I expect his redraft ADP to climb by at least a round. That would bring him more in line with his age-adjusted dynasty ADP.

The top four tight ends on this list are probably overvalued in dynasty formats. For whatever reason, people just cannot quit Kyle Pitts in dynasty leagues. Best ball drafters were in the same boat for a long time, but the enchantment has finally worn off heading into the 2025 season.

Pat Freiermuth has seen his best ball ADP fall following the Steelers' trade for Jonnu Smith, and I expect his dynasty value to follow the same trend.

Dynasty managers are still leaving the light on for Dalton Kincaid, and I can understand why. He was once one of my personal favorites as well. However, the Bills do not appear to be building a pass-heavy offense, and they have assembled a deep group of pass catchers. The smart money is on Kincaid’s dynasty value continuing to slide in the coming months.