"Something is only worth what someone is willing to pay for it" – Jonathan Reeves
There are lots of articles out there when it comes to fantasy football, even when it comes to multi-year (Dynasty and Keeper) leagues – but I have found that there are not too many which discuss overall strategy. Sure, there are plenty of Top 10, Top 20, Top 50 or longer lists of players at each position, discussions of rookies, sleepers, deep sleepers – but where are the articles about how to build that franchise? I have already discussed setting up an overall team strategy and also setting goals for managing your team, but I have decided that it would be best that I address one of the most common questions I get every single year. Since this question comes up so often, I wanted to cover the topic as extensively as I could so that all Dynasty team owners could have a frame of reference.
So what is this question? It sounds simple, but is actually extremely complicated to answer:
"What is the value of a first round draft pick?"
Not to go too much into attorney mode, but I will say that the answer is “It depends”. Not every league is structured the same, and that matters into the discussion and evaluation process. For example, if you are in a shallower league (say 10-12 teams, 20-25 roster spots), only 200-300 players are rostered (I know that this is a large range, but you get the idea). In the shallower leagues, the waiver wire and free agent talent pools are deeper, so the first round picks – while valuable to get the very top prospects – drop off in value very quickly due to the talent pool of free agent veterans and the small amount of roster space that an owner can afford to give towards holding on to a prospect for 2-3 seasons. That’s a completely different league environment than much deeper leagues, where there can be 14-16 teams (and possibly more) with 30-58 roster spots (or even more). I was once in a 16-team, 58-60 roster spot IDP league, and getting any sort of talent was hard outside of drafting rookies. In a league like that, every pick in Round 1 (and actually several additional rounds) had significant value. This is part of the reason that I built the Dynasty Draft Pick Calculator, which quantifies a Dynasty league with a “Dynasty Factor”, which gives you an idea of how “Dynasty-like” your league is. The bigger the Dynasty Factor, the more important the earlier rookie draft picks become.
So what is the best way to address this problematic question? Well, I decided that I would start with a few general rules of thumb, and speak to my outlook on each one (and also mention where the rules of thumb came from, if I can). Let’s get started with something that can apply to any Dynasty league, no matter the depth:
RULES OF THUMB
Rule of Thumb #1: The first 3-6 rookie picks are very valuable, year over year.
I think that this one makes sense at face value, regardless of league depth. If you want Adrian Peterson, Calvin Johnson, Julio Jones or any other top rookie prospect, you are going to need a very early rookie pick.
Just as a reference, I went to one of my leagues and looked at the Top 12 picks for the past five seasons:
Table 1 – Top 12 Picks for 2009-2013
If you notice some of the names here, you can tell you need to be patient with first year players, even if you are lucky enough to get contributions from the player in their rookie season. That leads us into Rule of Thumb #2:
Rule of Thumb #2: You have to plan on not using the player you take with your first round draft pick for at least a year, and more likely two or even three seasons. Giovani Bernard, Eddie Lacy and Keenan Allen may have been solid fantasy values towards the end of their rookie years, but you cannot count on that happening. Alshon Jeffery took until his second season to emerge, and look now at how highly he is regarded on Dynasty wide receiver lists. You have to be patient, and that means you have to leave these guys on your roster after you draft them for a few seasons and wait until they blossom.
Time Has Value
The next few rules of thumb try to explain that time does have a price:
Rule of Thumb #3: Picks are worth more the closer you get to their draft. That means a 2014 1st is worth more than a 2015 1st, which is worth more than a 2016 1st, and so on.
I think that this rule is pretty self-explanatory, as you know that the sooner you get to make a pick, the sooner that player can help your franchise.
Rule of Thumb #4: Building on Rule of Thumb #3, in general, subtract one round per year to determine a future value of a pick. That means a 2015 1st is roughly equal to a 2014 2nd.
This rule of thumb, like all the rest of them in this article, are general guidelines and not hard and fast rules. Use your best judgment in determining value, but this rule of thumb is based on historical trades that I have seen, but also common sense. A 2015 1st is, by definition, 12 months less valuable to your Dynasty team’s present value. To put it another way, by the time you make that selection with a 2015 1st, every player on your current roster (plus your 2014 picks) are going to be a year older – and closer to their exit from the NFL. Getting players sooner that can help your team always has more value than having to wait to make selections in the future.
Rule of Thumb #4A: The opposite of Rule of Thumb #4 is not always true.
I labeled this rule as “4A” because it ties to Rule of Thumb #4. That is to say, I would not go out and try and sell a 2014 2nd and expect to get a 2015 1st. Normally a fantasy team owner wanting to get the 2014 second-round selection will have to make this call, and it is not an easy one. Many owners protect their first round picks for any given season like gold and will not trade them, no matter what – but you should be properly informed in case your second round pick comes up and someone is begging for it. Make them pay.
Rule of Thumb #5: Always assume an undetermined draft pick (say a 2015 1st) is worth a pick right in the middle of the round. For example, with 12 teams, assume that the 2015 1st is pick 1.06 or 1.07.
You have to really remember Rule of Thumb #5. I have seen some teams trade for a first round pick thinking that the team they make the deal with is currently terrible and this will give them a good shot at a Top 3 pick. Also, I have seen the opposite happen – that a team trades away first round pick for the coming year (or even later) thinking that they will be a great team and that the pick will likely be towards the end of the first round. Making these assumptions can burn you. Imagine if your team falls apart due to injuries one year and then you don’t even have your first round pick next year to start the rebuilding process. That hurts.
Rule of Thumb #6: Trading a rookie pick before a Dynasty startup draft also has a general rule – each rookie pick (1.01, 1.02, 1.03) is worth 10-12 times that pick, or about the last pick in each round.
Again, this rule of thumb comes from experience and also is supported by studies done in the past, including one of the best studies ever done by “beto” in the Footballguys’ Shark Pool forum. So what do you do with this information? Consider this basic idea – if you are offered the 1.08 pick this year for example, the pick is roughly equivalent of the last pick in Round 8 of a 12-team Dynasty startup draft. That is Pick #96 overall, so if you trade 1.08 for a veteran player, you should be getting a Top 90-100 overall Dynasty value player. That’s the very best way to think about it, and this is quite often why I am personally willing to move my rookie picks.
Rule of Thumb #7: There are no locks or can’t-miss players in fantasy drafts.
Now, you may not agree with this, but think about how confident you might have been in previous rookie drafts about a given player. Who knew that Mark Ingram would take forever to develop, or that Ryan Wilson would have huge injury issues? Sure, the closer you are to the top of the first round, the more likely you are to get a solid player, but there are no guarantees. That’s why I often use Rule of Thumb #7 and trade out of the first round, but that’s a personal preference.
Timing is Everything
Rule of Thumb #8: Know when to buy draft picks, and when to sell – based on the NFL and fantasy league calendars.
When it comes to trading rookie draft picks, it is important to know the market, not just from a general value perspective, but also from a time of NFL year view. Figure 1 shows the relative value of draft picks, in my opinion, on a 14-month calendar timescale. For ease of understanding, I have added the calendar month and also some NFL calendar events to the chart. The values (I scaled them from 1-10) are not important, just their relative values to one another:
Figure 1 – NFL Draft Pick Value vs. Time of NFL Year
By looking at Figure 1, you can see that rookie picks are worth more and more as the NFL Draft gets closer. That makes perfect sense – picks are worth the most right before they are used. After the NFL Draft (here labeled as April or May) comes a Dynasty league’s fantasy draft (labeled as June). Right after the fantasy draft, the rookie picks’ values for future years is at their lowest, but it starts to climb again during the summer months. During the NFL regular season, the chart shows that the draft pick values look to be stable, but that can be deceiving. Some picks start to go up quickly in value (say a terrible team loses their only two good players to injury – that first round pick is probably going to be coveted as the likely 1.01 next draft) while other teams’ draft picks go down as they prove out to be strong playoff contenders. Also during this time, college football prospects start to truly emerge for the next NFL draft, and the depth of a fantasy draft starts to really shape up. With so much change and flux for rookie draft pick values, good traders can find a few gems if they are sharp dealers during the NFL regular season.
To finish the discussion, closer to the end of the NFL regular season and during the fantasy playoffs, most leagues have a trade blackout window. Draft picks temporarily go down here, but quickly rebound once the window opens up and the calendar marches towards that next April or May NFL draft.
So what does all of this mean? I would strongly suggest that the best time to be a seller of draft picks would be in May, while I would look to buy draft picks over the summer and – if I am sharp – look for gems during the NFL season. Some teams may be willing to part with a future first round pick during the fantasy season if they can get a player they perceive as the key missing piece to push for a championship that year. That’s usually a “win-win” for both teams, especially if the team giving away their first rounder gets to their fantasy championship game.
GUIDELINES, NOT STRICT RULES
Rules of Thumb are just that – guidelines, not hard and fast rules. Even so, it is important to know them so that you have a frame of reference when looking to buy or sell rookie draft picks. These picks are some of the most coveted assets for Dynasty franchise owners, and they are often included in trade offers. Keep this list hand as a second opinion to help you in building that truly dominant franchise. Good luck this season, and for many seasons to come.
As always, questions, suggestions and comments are always welcome to pasquino@footballguys.com.