RB2 By Committee

Over the past few years, there have been two very popular articles written by our very own Chase Stuart that look at an interesting approach to building a fantasy team with late value picks. Based upon the theory of using both Strength of Schedule ("SOS") and taking two players as a combination to build one very good player, he has discussed both Team Defense by Committee ("TDBC") and Quarterback by Committee ("QBBC") as a general fantasy league strategy. In general I think that this is a wise move because very early on in fantasy drafts there are a ton of RB and WR prospects to go after to build a great team. While there are a few studs at QB and also a few choice defenses, I do not see a huge need in leagues to pursue either too hard in the beginning stages of a fantasy draft.

So with this in mind, I started to think about what else can be done with the committee approach. Tight end? Perhaps. Wide receiver? A possibility, but it might be better to look at third WR options than any other option. What about running back? Hmmm, that's really intriguing. What if you could grab two running backs later in the draft that could combine to perform on a RB2 - or even RB1 - level, based solely on their current projections and their schedule? Now we're talking. This really got my attention, so I went after this one first. Let's take a look at how I went about this and then we can digest and discuss the results.

THE GROUND(GAME) RULES

So how to begin? Defenses and quarterbacks are relatively easy to "committee" together. There's usually only one QB and certainly only one team defense per NFL club, so the approach is pretty simple as far as picking out which players / teams to try and pair up. When it comes to running backs, the line is not quite so easy to draw, but I needed some basis to pick which players it made sense to try and combine for a decent committee. I decided that I would use the following criteria to decide which players to start with for evaluating:

CRITERIA #1 - RB25 AND BEYOND

This seems pretty simple. If we want to have a duo that puts up RB2 numbers, that means we want RB24 or better production - else we would just draft RB24 (Ben Tate) or higher and forget the whole idea. So here is the list of players with which I started, based on their Average Draft Position (ADP):

Table 1: Running Backs RB25-RB50 Based on ADP

Great, now we have 26 guys to pair up and see how they do. That makes 325 potential committees, so there had better be a decent one (or several, we hope) out of all of those couplets. Now, before I go over the method of how to pair them up and the results, we need one more rule:

CRITERIA #2 - NO MORE THAN ONE RB FROM ROUND 5 AND ONE FROM ROUND 6

This could get tricky here, but understand the overall goal. The point of RB2BC is to "free up" the first 4 rounds of your fantasy draft to pursue 3 receivers after grabbing a stud RB in Round 1. This also gives you the flexibility of grabbing two receivers and a stud QB or TE, depending on your personal preference, or even to get RB2 and have the "RB2BC" be your RB3. Flexibility is the name of the game here. We all want value in our drafts, and having the ability to grab two RBs in Rounds 5 and 6 to act as our RB2BC gives us that ability.

Here is the good news - all the running backs on the list above except for Frank Gore (ADP of 54), Rashad Jennings (ADP of 58) and Ray Rice (ADP of 60) have an ADP that is Round 6 or higher (later). It might even be possible to push this into a Round 6 and Round 7 RB pair.  We will have to keep that goal in mind when we look at the results because it would not make sense to expect to get two Round 6 running backs in one of these combinations based on their ADP.

So what do we do now to figure out some RB pairs?

CRITERIA #3 - USE FOOTBALLGUYS' RB STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE

This sounds pretty simple, doesn't it? Just take the RB Strength of Schedule to figure out when certain players are more likely to score well. What I did is similar to what the Projections Dominator and Draft Dominator do for you - take the projected fantasy points and slice them up over 16 weeks based on the strength of schedule. I call this result the "distributed fantasy points" for each back.

After I had all 26 running backs with distributed fantasy points on a weekly basis, I just compared all of the possible RB pairs to find the best duos for RB2BC. So here we are - time for some results.

Table 2: Running Back #2 Committee Pairs

As we can see from Table 2, we have some very good pairs to select from for RB2BC. In fact, I think that this is the best year ever to attempt RB2BC.  There are three running backs outside of the Top 24 that are projected to outpace several Top 24 RBs in fantasy scoring in 2014 - Rashad Jennings, Joique Bell and Lamar Miller.  I could almost stop right there, but I need to be thorough as the ADPs tend to get very fluid as preseason wears on, and we need to make certain we have the very best pairings in case our draft plans go awry.  So digging in, there are 55 pairs that are worth more than or equal to Jennings by his lonesome.  Let's also take a look at how often some of these guys show up on the table:

Table 3: Running Back #2 Committee Pair Appearances by Player

As we can see from Table 3, three RBs show up on this list with a lot of regularity – Rashad Jennings, Joique Bell and Lamar Miller.  In fact, as I mentioned earlier, two of these backs are worth more on their own than Ryan Mathews (RB18) himself, and Miller is not far off of Mathew's projections.  That tells that this tier of RB24-26 is pretty up in the air as far as who will do the best.  All the more reason to get a favorable pair when it comes to strength of schedule.

PUTTING IT ALL TOGETHER

Now that we have 55 possible pairs that are better than Rashad Jennings, what exactly does that mean? Should Jennings be the basis of our comparison? Of course not. Remember our goal - find a pair of running backs that can combine for RB2 (or better) fantasy production. To figure that out we need a better metric, so here are the projections for RB1 through RB24:

Table 4: Projected Fantasy Points for RBs 1-24

Based on Table 4, we see some things that catch the eye.  First, the projections and the ADP do not line up well at all.  There is a total jumble from RB6-18, with RB13 (Alfred Morris) and RB14 (Zac Stacy) projected to finish well below where their ADP suggests.  Next, it jumps out that only 13 running backs are projected to score over 160 points.  Now, to be fair, these running backs in Table 4 have a giant “zero” on their bye week, while our RB2BC duos never have a week off.  To compensate for that, we should add in 5-8 points for a bye week lineup fill-in that someone who owned of these players would use.  Even with an extra eight points, however, only 16 running backs would be over 160 projected points (Andre Ellington, C.J. Spiller and Toby Gerhart all fall short of 185 even if you throw another 10 points on their projections for a bye week filler).  Looking at our possible RB2BC pairs, we have six pairs that meet or beat 170 fantasy points, which would put those duos comparable to projected RB16, Reggie Bush (159 + 10 points with a bye week replacement).  To go a little further, we have a total of 16 RB2BC pairs that exceed 164 points, which compares to both RB14 Zac Stacy (154.9) and also RB18 Ryant Mathews (152.6), even with a bye week replacement player.  This tells us that choosing the correct pair can give us the result we wanted - RB2 production on the cheap.

Now, to look for the best bargains available, let's take one more final look at these pairs, focusing on those that project to be comparable to RB16 Reggie Bush (159 points + 5 for a bye-week fill-in, or 164 points):

Table 5: Top 16 RB2BC Options for 2014

In prior years,  I would have said that we should focus on the best of the bargain bin - pairs of running backs that include no more than one RB with ADP of RB27, and possibly both backs with ADP of 30 or higher. This year, with the value you can steal with getting Joique Bell in Round 5, I say to throw that plan out (or make it "Plan B") and just go get Joique Bell in Round 5.  Why am I not targeting Rashad Jennings?  Because there is far too much uncertainty with the New York Giants' backfield.  David Wilson could steal touches, as could Andre Williams near the goal line.  I would rather have a proven player in Bell who is going to be a major contributor to a high-powered offense.  Now, unlike in the PPR article, it does matter who you get next as the value falls off quickly if you cannot get Lamar Miller as his compliment.  Miller has an ADP of 92, putting him close to Round 8, but I think taking him in Round 6 is extremely safe, but I would rather wait to Round 7.  For all of these reasons, I am recommending that the RB2BC this year is Joique Bell and Lamar Miller.  Take Bell in Round 5 and Miller and Round 7 and be happy that you stole a high-end RB2 and possibly a virtual lower-tier RB1 by waiting on the position.

To go one step further this year, let's say you are taking a risk and you want to wait on Miller, possibly waiting until Round 8 to snap him up.  Risky, but if you do it, you need a backup plan.  That is where you can use Table 5 and find the best pair with Bell.  Looking through the table, I would suggest a Danny Woodhead or Darren Sproles, both of which should be available - but as the earlier tables point out, you are losing 15-20 projected points if you take this risk.  I would advise against that and just take Bell and Miller.

Lastly, let's consider someone else has this plan and Bell is gone by your turn late in Round 5.  What next?  Again, use the earlier tables and take the best duo you can find.  I would look towards Jennings, or even Ray Rice then quickly grab Miller to secure a Top 16 pair.  If all else fails and you really press your luck, Miller and DeAngelo Williams or Terrance West are solid options with both backs having ADPs in the 30s.   

Here is a final summary of the combined schedules for Joique Bell and Lamar Miller, and when the committee approach suggests starting each one:

Table 6: Suggested RB2BC Schedule Plan

The committee approach is not a perfect one, but having this knowledge prior to your fantasy draft can prove to be invaluable if you decide to adopt this approach.  If all the players on your starter list are gone, goiong with a committee can save your team and help you deal with the loss of bigger names.  The method is also a big help in "Best Ball" leagues, where lineup decisions are not necessary every week.  That's exactly where a committee can do the best, as either player can count for you each week.

Questions, suggestions and comments are always welcome to pasquino@footballguys.com.

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