Over the past few years, we have given the subscribers of Footballguys.com some help in playing office pools, one of the most popular methods to follow the NFL aside from fantasy football leagues. For the past few seasons, the staff members have done the Staff Confidence Pool Challenge, where numerous staffers try and pick the winners each week with a confidence ranking, and Jeff Pasquino’s “For The Win” column where Jeff attempts to pick each and every NFL game against the Las Vegas spread. Both of these have been very popular features, so this year Footballguys is adding a combination of the two called the “Against the Spread” Challenge and also the Eliminator Challenge, where staffers have to pick a team to win each week. Just one? That sounds easy, but here is the catch – you can only pick the team you choose in a given week once all season long. Many contests and pools out there get pretty big, so an Eliminator (or Survivor) Pool can go 16 or 17 weeks.
Note that the links above are for 2012 articles. Please see the Week 5 2013 Page at Footballguys.com for the 2013 Week 5 updates.
Jeff Pasquino has provided some insight into this kind of contest with two pre-season articles, first one that describes this kind of contest along with some advice on how to pick a team each week:
The second article is rather interesting, which describes Jeff’s pre-season plan to get all the way through 17 weeks. Will it work? We are about to find out.
This pool will run all season long, but to keep participation up, the pool will crown the staffer with the best W-L record for the season (which means that everyone in the pool will continue to make picks every week).
THIS WEEK'S PICK SUMMARY
Here are the picks for this week.
| Staffer | Record | Wk01 | Wk02 | Wk03 | Wk04 | Wk05 | Wk06 | Wk07 | Wk08 | Wk09 | Wk10 | Wk11 | Wk12 | Wk13 | Wk14 | Wk15 | Wk16 | Wk17 |
| Greg Russell | 4-0 | INDY | NE | SEA | DEN | STL | ||||||||||||
| James Brimacombe | 4-0 | NE | GB | SEA | IND | ATL | ||||||||||||
| Heath Cummings | 4-0 | NE | CIN | SEA | IND | STL | ||||||||||||
| Aaron Rudnicki | 4-0 | INDY | ATL | SEA | NO | STL | ||||||||||||
| Matt Bitonti | 4-0 | INDY | OAK | SEA | NO | ATL | ||||||||||||
| Jeff Pasquino | 3-1 | INDY | PHI | SEA | DEN | ATL | ||||||||||||
| Andy Hicks | 3-1 | TB | GB | SEA | IND | ATL | ||||||||||||
| Adam Herstad | 3-1 | TB | CIN | SEA | IND | STL | ||||||||||||
| Will Grant | 3-1 | INDY | NE | MIN | NO | STL | ||||||||||||
| Steve Holloway | 3-1 | INDY | NE | MIN | TEN | ATL | ||||||||||||
| Jeff Haseley | 3-1 | INDY | PHI | NO | TEN | STL | ||||||||||||
| Mark Wimer | 3-1 | NE | PHI | SEA | AZ | STL | ||||||||||||
| Maurile Tremblay | 2-2 | TB | PHI | SEA | IND | DEN | ||||||||||||
| Ryan Hester | 2-2 | PIT | PHI | SEA | NO | STL | ||||||||||||
| Jason Wood | 1-3 | TB | NO | MIN | CIN | ATL |
DISCUSSION
We almost had our first perfect week in Week 4, but Cleveland’s second upset in a row against Cincinnati prevented that from happening. Once again, I have to remind everyone who reads this column that if a game has two strikes against it (1. Picking a road team, 2. Picking a divisional game / rivalry) you had better be sure that you are confident – and even then I would recommend choosing another winner. Week 5 could be a bit less dramatic as I expect many of the staff to continue to fade Jacksonville, easily the worst team in the league and also the team who is the only double-digit underdog (11-12 points) in Las Vegas this week.
With entries in, I was correct that most of the staff went against Jacksonville, as more than half (8 of 15) chose St. Louis. I personally steered clear of this game, as I think it is a potential trap game for the Rams, who looked terrible last week and this could be one of the very few chances Jacksonville will have to win a contest this year. As such, I chose to go with Atlanta, the second biggest favorite (9-10 points) at home against the Jets on Monday night in a must win situation. Five other staffers chose Atlanta with me as well, leaving just one person (Maurile Tremblay) on his own with Denver this week. This could be a very interesting week after Monday’s results are complete.
COMMENTARY
Each week, contestants are invited to submit any comments that they might have about their picks. If they submit them early enough, we post them with the article. If not, the comments will be within the section below.
Jeff Pasquino – I stuck with my the normal plan from the preseason in Week 5, deciding to go with Atlanta in Week 5, as I mentioned my reasoning above. To further that explanation, here are my breakdowns for the Jaguars-Rams and Falcons-Jets contests from my “For the Win” column this week:
JACKSONVILLE (+12) at ST. LOUIS
Surprised by this pick? So am I, but after seeing just how bad the Rams looked last week, I think that this is the perfect trap game for St. Louis. The Rams have to be looking at this game as a “get well soon” opportunity, with the Jaguars coming to town as one of the worst NFL teams in quite a while. That said, look at Jacksonville’s schedule and tell me where the “one” is – that one win that the Jaguars will need to get this year to avoid going 0-16 on the season. Aside from a home game against Arizona in Week 11 or maybe when they host Buffalo in Week 15, this could be the best chance for Jacksonville to steal a game this year. Plus, Jacksonville is getting their best offensive player in Justin Blackmon back this week, so I expect him to contribute early and often against a St. Louis secondary that was injured quite a bit against San Francisco last week. Am I calling for the upset? Not exactly, but I have 12 reasons why to take Jacksonville, and I will. PICK: Jaguars
(Monday) ATLANTA (-9) vs. NEW YORK JETS
This game is a must-win game for the 1-3 Falcons, who cannot afford to lose another game this early in the season and have any realistic chances for the postseason. Atlanta has issues all across their offensive line, which will be a problem against a tough Jets defense, but Matt Ryan will get rid of the ball quickly and keep the Falcons’ offense moving. This pick is not just about the “must win” situation for Atlanta, but also a heavy indictment of just how bad the Jets are right now. With Stephen Hill and Santonio Holmes out this week, New York will be trotting out Jeremy Kerley and Clyde Gates as their starting wide receivers. If the Jets get over 17 points, I would be surprised. Atlanta 27, Jets 13. PICK: Falcons
Good luck this weekend!