In the final week of the season, correctly predicting game theory becomes perhaps the most important part of DFS. Who will get rested? Who will lay down with nothing to play for? Those can be very difficult to predict but the right answer can give you a major advantage. We'll try to answer those questions and more in this week's Believe It Or Not. Once again we're using the projections of David Dodds for our Value Play selection and my personal research for the Bargain Buys. You clearly don't want to fill out a roster full of these guys, but once you've selected the studs you want, fill your roster with a couple of these players for profit.
Quarterback
Value Play
Robert Griffin III III ($6600) vs. Dallas- Washington showed last week against Philadelphia last week that they aren't quitting on this season and the Cowboys have basically nothing to play for. Griffin could give the Cowboys linebackers plenty of problems with his legs in what is essentially his last audition for a 2015 starting job. This game could turn into a shootout in a hurry and Griffin should have no trouble reaching value.
FanDuel Bargain Buy
Chase Daniel ($5000) vs. San Diego- For the season year in a row Daniel will get the start against the Chargers in Week 17. Last year Daniel played with mostly backups around him and still would have met value at this price. Surrounded by much better talent against a Chargers defense that isn't exactly intimidating I love his chances of reaching 3x value or better.
Running Back
Value Play
Matt Asiata ($6400) vs. Chicago- Asiata isn't a particularly talented back but his combination of opportunity and opponent make him a quality play this week. Asiata has three touchdowns in the last two weeks and is also getting involved in the passing game. These two teams are trending in different directions at the end of the year and it's not hard to see a situation where the Vikings are running the ball often in the second half.
FanDuel Bargain Buy
Daniel Herron ($5600) vs. Tennessee- The Colts running game has been atrocious the last few weeks but this is a great opportunity to get back on track. The Colts have every reason to try to grind this one out on the ground and preserve the health of their start quarterback and their receivers. Herron could see 15+ touches in this one and that would be plenty to meet value against a poor defense.
Wide Receiver
Value Play
Eric Decker ($5900) vs. Miami- Decker is a bit of a wild card but he has at least 15 fantasy points in two of his last three starts and the Jets figure to be playing from behind in this one. Percy Harvin is questionable, if he's out I like Decker even more this week. Despite three games with 8+ targets, Decker hasn't scored a touchdown since Week 9. In other words, he's due.
FanDuel Bargain Buy
Malcom Floyd ($5600) vs. Kansas City- Floyd has a touchdown in two of his past three games and will be Phillip Rivers WR1 with Keenan Allen out. The Chiefs pass defense has been surprisingly good this year, but there's some smoke and mirrors to that. Floyd should have no trouble getting open against the Chiefs corners and with a lack of a running game Rivers will have to lean on him.
Tight End
Value Play
Delanie Walker ($5200) vs. Indianapolis- The Colts struggles with tight ends have been well documented in this article, this is about as good as matchups get. Walker is a boom or bust play that has shown the ability to be the TE1 in any given week. In his last matchup with Indianapolis he put up 16.9 FanDuel points. In a game where Indianapolis may be looking ahead to the playoffs he could do even better.
FanDuel Bargain Buy
Mychal Rivera ($5200) vs. Denver- Rivera has cooled off a little bit from his red hot start, but this is an outstanding matchup. The Broncos offense will be looking to get back on track and should have their way with the Raiders defense. That means a lot of Derek Carr passes, which should mean a lot of Rivera targets. He's been one of the best tight ends in fantasy football in the second half of the season and should have a strong finish to the season in Week 17.
Kicker
Blair Walsh ($4800) vs. Chicago- As I said above about Asiata, I really like the Vikings offense in this game. As you know if you've read this article, I also like kickers at home in games that I figure to be high scoring.
Defense
New Orleans ($4500) vs. Tampa Bay- This is definitely a boom or bust play. It's possible that the Saints will lay down after being eliminated from the playoffs and this game turns into a shootout. More likely, in my opinion is that they let the dogs loose in the pass rush forcing Tampa Bay into multiple turnovers. At least at this price it doesn't hurt you much if they bust.