Suspensions. Sprains, Discolations. Concussions. The enemies of fantasy football drafts everywhere have hit the fantasy football landscape like a natural disaster
With a wild start to the season, player movement in leagues will continue at a massive rate. If you're not getting a shot at the players you need, remain patient because within the next few weeks the trade market will relax enough that worthwhile deals will be available (if they aren't already) and the competition will replenish the waiver wire with talent during the approaching bye weeks.
All the unfortunate events of the past two weeks may appear to be wreckage, but there's also opportunity scattered about your leagues. The Gut Check surveys the landscape reveals not only the clear buy/sell opportunities, but those speculative options that could become fantasy surprsies or reclamation projects.
Invest Now
WR Sammy Watkins: Rookie wide receivers are iffy propositions -- take a look at DeAndre Hopkins, Watkins' former teammate at Clemson who was on fire to begin his rookie year, but was a wet blanket by year's end. Watkins' performance against the Dolphins makes him worth the risk as one of the multiple options to acquire in exchange for a known commodity.
The rookie scored one touchdown on Sunday, but had three near-touchdowns during the first three quarters. He let a deep streak up the right sideline slip through his fingers in the end zone in the first quarter. Later in the game Watkins got open up the seasm, but E.J. Manuel targeted Watkins further inside than the receiver's break. Based on the location of the safety, I'm more inclined to say Manuel was off-target.
Overall, Watkins was quick, physical, and earned separation early in his routes. Mike Williams looks like the Mike Williams at Tampa Bay -- occasionally capable of a big game, but disappears for long stretches. I'm a believer that the rookie will continue performing on an upward trajectory this year -- especially when he has been coping with a rib injury since August.
Watkins ceiling is fantasy WR2 territory (top-15 at his position), but the reasonable upside value for the rookie is in the 18-25 range. If you can negotiate for him as a WR3 as part of a package deal where you're giving away a big name that yields two or more options, Watkins should see enough targets, yardage after the catch, and big plays in vertical passing game to make the trade worthwhile.
WR Kelvin Benjamin: Watkins appears more polished, but Benjamin has the better quarterback and he has shown a flair for the spectacular. His one-handed catch at the sideline against the Lions was the type of play I didn't see him make at Florida State. Benjamin is also earning targets in double coverage and it's Cam Newton's confidence (and persistance) to target the rookie in difficult situations that should hearten fantasy owners.
Benjamin will have some bad moments -- even bad weeks -- but Sigmund Bloom's theory appears as if it will be a reality: Benjamin will get targeted enough to score well regardless of the overall quality of his performance. The rookie has earned 8 targets each week thus far.
I won't be surprised if Benjamin has greater value than Watkins in some leagues, but I think their re-draft value is similar. If you can catch a fantasy owner in a down moment this week or next (given Benjamin has another mediocre-to-bad week), try to offer a package deal.
WR Julian Edelman: Last year, Edelman was the No.18 fantasy receiver. Thus far, Edelman is a top-10 option. If his fantasy owner thinks he's selling Edelman high this week, stroke his ego as long as you can get him at a value no higher than a WR2 (No.12-15 option at his position).
The logic is sound: Danny Amendola is injury prone and he hasn't really shown up on Brady's radar on a consistent basis thus far. Brandon LaFell is a backup posing as a starter. Aaron Dobson is young, inexperienced, still getting into shape (and complete health), and inconsistent. And Patriots deactivated Kenbrell Thompkins last week. Other than Rob Gronkowski, who is missing that extra gear at this point, Brady doesn't trust anyone more than Edelman.
I was wrong not to project 100 catches for Edeleman this year. He's a safe bet for a big year with targets as well as big plays in the vertical game.
RB Rashad Jennings: The difference between Jennings and rookie back Andre Williams is how the two backs approach the line of scrimmage. In his desire to break the big play and generate power, Williams is approaching the line too fast and it's forcing him to spin from contact rather than cut or dip from the opposition.
The result is a rookie who is playing at a frenetic pace, turning his back to defenders he could be running through, and over-setting his position as a pass protector. In contrast, Jennings is slow to the hole and fast through it. He waits for his blocks to develop and then makes his move. Although Jennings lost a fumble in the red zone late in this game, it was his efforts that got the Giants in this position to keep the game alive.
Jennings is a solid fantasy RB2 and getting him with any of the receivers above in exchange for a brand quality stud could work well in your favor.
WR DeAndre Hopkins: Two weeks, two touchdowns, and some beautiful grabs for Hopkins. The Giants will present a tougher test next week, so if you can wait for a down week and buy him a little lower, keep this in mind. As you can see, I don't follow the line of reasoning that "good NFL players always take an ascending trajectory as rookies." Hopkins is a solid throw-in as a WR3 with WR2 upside this year.
WR James Jones: The Raiders' most reliable option is Jones and it's no contest. Despite having the strangest, most unforunate play of the week -- a catch at the right sideline where he took a hit in the chest by the safety, lost the ball, recovered the fumble, turned up field for at least 25-30 yards, and then lost the ball again at the Texans' 10 -- Jones is rookie Derek Carr's Davante Adams' surrogate on fades and slants.
The one great fantasy angle with bad teams is that there's a wealth of potential for targets. Jones had 14 targets last week. It might be a season-high for the Oakland receiver, but don't be surprised if he has at least another 6-8 games of double-digit targets. I still think there's WR2 upside here.
RB Lamar Miller: The Dolphins' runner might be out a few weeks depending on the severity of his ankle injury, but I'd consider acquiring him in a package deal if you can wait a few weeks for his services and earn a solid RB2 down the stretch. The risk is that Miller is rushed back and is ineffective for much of the season like C.J. Spiller or Roddy White. If you can wait a week to learn about his condition, you might even get him at a lower cost if the team sits him in favor of Damien Williams.
Miller has been smooth, decisive, and versatile. I commented to Bloom last week that Knowshon Moreno may have overshadowed Miller in Week 1, but Miller still looked as good as I have seen since he entered the league.
Worth a Speculative Pick-up/thrown-In
TE Larry Donnell: Reuben Randle had a nice game last week against Patrick Peterson, but if Odell Beckham gets healthy and Eli Manning remains Eli Manning, the most consistent option after Victor Cruz might be the Giants' tight end Donnell. His catch radius and body control has been impressive in regular season action. There was a spinning catch in tight coverage to get inside the Arizona 20 that was a fine example of Donnell making tough catches on targets delivered to odd angles.
The Giants' west coast offense is invested in using the tight end in the passing game and Donnell has proven up to the task. If you can acquire Donnell as a throw-in to a 2-for-1 or 3-for-1 deal, make it happen. Donnell is worth speculation as a low-end TE1 moving forward.
WR Andre Roberts: DeSean Jackson's shoulder injury might not force him to miss time, but it could limit him for at least a few weeks. Roberts didn't have a spectacular game against the Jaguars in relief of Jackson, but he had more than a few quality plays as a runner, receiver, and return specialist. Cousins may also have a little more experience working with Roberts because both were second-team options in the Washington offense's hierarchy. Roberts isn't a bad waiver wire option to get on the cheap if you can't get one of the premium picks this week. Remember, Roberts has had stretches with the Cardinals as a fantasy WR2 -- he can do it again if called upon.
RB Bobby Rainey: I did film analysis of Rainey as a college prospect and his first season in Tampa. I'm sure the Ravens wish they kept him right now, because he's better than Justin Forsett and Bernard Pierce and an example why teams often have preconceived notions of a player based on draft status. As a side note, this is one of the reasons why Seattle has been successful -- they believe in open competition regardless of draft or contract status.
Rainey displays the same skills with the Buccaneers that he showed at Western Kentucky: excellent short area quickness; lateral agility paired with a downhill mentality; and balance to work through trash. His timing to get down hill off a cut makes him a tough interior runner capable of breaking a lot of mid-range gains of 10-25 yards.
Doug Martin was my No.2 back in the 2012 NFL Draft, but Rainey was my No.10 back ahead of the likes of Robert Turbin, Bernard Pierce, Vick Ballard, and Brandon Bolden. In hindsight, he has proven to be a better back than at least five of the players I ranked ahead of him, including Cyrus Gray, Ronnie Hillman, LaMichael James, and Chris Polk.
If Martin can't get on track, don't be surprised if Rainey pulls an Ahmad Bradshaw-style mutiny in the Buccaneers backfield. I'd try to acquire Rainey as a 2-for-1 or 3-for-1/3-for-2 thrown-in if you're in a league with a flex-option. Rainey might find his way back to the bench, but he could also be a surprise RB2 the rest of the way.
RB Ahmad Bradshaw: You saw the reference above and I don't think any of us would be surprised if Bradshaw forces an even split with Trent Richardson. The long-term health of Bradshaw will always be a concern, but he's doing more with less than Richardson. He has less upside than Rainey at this point, but his price will likely be a little higher. The deals for either back will be similar.
RB Jonathan Stewart: DeAngelo Williams will be back and it means the Carolina Committee of Agonizing Fantasy Death will be, too. However, Stewart looks healthy. The problems that I saw against the Lions last week had more to do with Carolina's choice of runs for Stewart than the big back's performance. When the team gave Stewart downhill opportunities where the line opened a reasonable NFL-sized crease, Stewart demonstrated burst, balance, and rare power.
With Mike Tolbert and Fozzy Whittaker leaving the game in teh second half with injuries, Stewart could earn more red zone opportunities that were inexplicably going to the big fullback with ever-increasing girth. Stewart is a flex option in the middle or lower tiers of that designation, but his upside is still at least RB2 level.
WR Brian Quick: The Rams receiver has two good weeks in the short passing game, but mixed results in the intermediate and deep zones. Quick allowed an accurate post route to bounce off his hands with less than five minutes left in this game and it was an easy catch despite two defenders in the area. However, he also displayed good toughness to earn 16 yards on a dig route, making the catch after contact. He's merely a throw-in as part of deal where you get at least three options, but his rapport with Austin Davis and Shaun Hill gives him WR3 upside.
WR Jarvis Landry: The Dolphins have been easing Landry into the mix and last week he caugth five of six targets. He's a better speculative play in PPR leagues than non-PPR because he's not earning big play targets or looks (yet) in the red zone. Brian Hartline seems to be a distant third in the pecking order of targets among receivers and tight ends. Keep an eye on Landry as a player to pull the trigger down the line.
WR Albert Wilson: The rookie from Georgia State has skill to win the ball in tight coverage and the explosiveness to work the middle of the field after the catch. Junior Hemingway is a sure-handed, slow option and Donnie Avery seems to have a limited quota of games where he'll be healthy every year. Keep an eye on Wilson and if he earns significant time, he might be worth a speculative waiver wire play within the next 4-6 weeks.
Sell
QB Cam Newton: Kelvin Benjamin should be a nice option and Tony Dungy went to lengths to praise Newton's performance from the pocket against the Lions. However, I'm with Rodney Harrison, Newton still tipped off too many throws and his receivers beyond Benjamin lack big-play ability. If you can trade Newton as a low-end QB1 value and get either a RB2, or WR2 plus a speculative option, I'd consider it.
RB Zac Stacy: Benny Cunningham looks as good, if not better than Stacy. The second-year runner from Middle Tennessee State who was an undrafted free agent coming off a patella tendon injury seems quicker than he was last year. In contrast, Stacy appears a little slower. If you're loaded at RB and in need of another position, Stacy is worth throwing into the mix because I'm not confident he'll be a consistent option as long as Cunningham keeps this up.
