Here at Football Guys, I’ll use my methodology for evaluating wide receivers, Reception Perception, in order to look for clues about a wide receiver’s fantasy value. We’ll examine players to buy or sell, and check in on the progress of young dynasty assets. In this edition, we’ll try and decipher what happened to Michael Floyd last week.
The zero is the worst thing to see in your fantasy football lineup scores, especially from a play that participated in a majority of his team’s game. The goose egg stings so bad that owners are usually reluctant to trust the offender again. That land of distrust is where many are with Michael Floyd. The Cardinals supposed number-one receiver didn’t make a dent in the box score, despite a good matchup against the Eagles.
Michael Floyd was a popular breakout receiver candidate this offseason, and coming off his first 1,000 yard season in 2013. He’s had some weeks this year that delivered on that promise. Yet, it has been an up and down ride. Floyd has not received double-digit targets in any game this year. He’s failed to go over 100 yards and score a touchdown in the same week. Everything came to a head when he put a goose egg in fantasy owner’s lineups against Philadelphia.
Due to the nature of this performance, we will take a look at the Reception Perception target data first:
Odell Beckham Jr.’s targets on 19.4% of his Week 7 routes raised questions in last week’s post. Floyd’s 11.1% figure, and the rest of this data, is much worse. But that is to be expected when a receiver catches no passes in a game. Floyd received four targets, but dropped two of them and was missed on the other two. Interestingly enough, Floyd had a three-target game last week against Oakland in Week 7, but caught them all and scored a touchdown. Those sorts of games will make observers question the sustainability. The pendulum swung back to hit Floyd owners in the gut against the Eagles.
Beyond being discouraging, there is not much more to learn from the target data here. The zero said it all. We need to look at the other Reception Perception numbers to know what to think about Floyd going forward.
Route Analysis
Pro Football Focus’ Mike Clay came on our own Football Guys’ On the Couch Podcast this week and dropped some wisdom on Michael Floyd. Clay detailed how the young Arizona receiver had a very high Average Depth of Target (aDOT). Carson Palmer loves to look at Floyd deep down the field, and its contributed to his 18.6 yards per reception figure.
Reception Perception confirms that this is Floyd’s primary role. In Week 8, Floyd ran nines and posts on over 50% of his routes. The only other route that exceeds 10% frequency was the dig. Many of the routes Michael Floyd runs are low percentage, high reward. Receivers need to be really proficient in producing on such patterns in order to sustain value:
(SRVC denotes success rate versus coverage for each route. PTS indicates how many PPR fantasy points a receiver earned on each particular route)
Floyd’s Route Tree Success Rate chart is not a pretty sight, and it goes beyond the empty PTS sections. Since he ran a nine on 33.3% of his routes, he needed to be very proficient getting open on them. Unfortunately, Floyd posted a strikingly low 25% SRVC score on nine-routes. His 57.1% SRVC on post routes was much better, but doesn’t not cover up for the low percentages elsewhere.
Bradley Fletcher and Cary Williams are below average starting cornerbacks. Most analysts expected Floyd to have a field day matchup against those two. Yet, Floyd often had a cornerback in his hip pocket throughout the afternoon. He had trouble separating from defenders and was frequently not an option for Carson Palmer to throw a clean pass to.
Coverage and Alignment Data
The Eagles are mostly a man coverage based defense. Their cornerbacks have trouble keeping up with receivers, and many have posted productive fantasy games against them. Michael Floyd did not have much success, and was only open on 41.4% of his attempts against man coverage. Although, while he’s typically thought of as an outside receiver, Floyd did play a bit in the slot against Philadelphia:
Larry Fitzgerald is more often than not the Cardinals’ slot receiver. However, Floyd did reside in that position on 22.8% of his snaps in Week 8. This could have contributed to his low success rate against man coverage. The Eagles best cornerback is their slot defender, Brandon Boykin. He is excellent in all brands of coverage, and tracked Floyd with ease down the field.
Sometimes passing distribution, game planning and flow destroy a receiver’s target total. Other times, a player just is not getting open. In this case, some of the former factors played a role and Floyd was frequently well covered—leaving a few plays with an injury only compounded the bad situation. Floyd had a bad game; it happens. Sometimes, its bad enough for the goose egg to plop itself into your team’s box score.
Going Forward
Games like this, and two other weeks where Michael Floyd only caught one pass, make the idea that this player is (or will be) an every week WR1 seem like a lost cause. Floyd’s situation, and excellent Week 1 game, indicated he would continue down the path of wide receiver stardom. That may very well still be the case. As of now, Floyd still has some inconsistencies, and those lead to poor fantasy performances such as this. His SRVC scores show that the blame for Floyd’s low output on Sunday must be at least partly laid at his feet. He was not separating from the Eagles’ lackluster coverage players with any regularity.
Michael Floyd has the type of talent that can rise to the top at any given moment. That could mean that he will eventually hone his craft into consistency, and become that solid every week start. Or he could just present a tantalizing high upside, but scary floor, fantasy play. He has been the latter so far this season. The presence of Bruce Arians and the relative predictability of Carson Palmer present some hope for this situation to evolve into the former.
The truth is, we do not have much firm ground to stand upon with Michael Floyd. If you are a believer in his talent and situation, you can talk away the zero point outing and feel confident that he’ll rebound strongly. There is a lot of validity in that stance. However, Floyd’s SRVC scores from his goose egg Sunday should provide enough concern that even his most staunch backers have a bit of hesitation. We cannot confidently say he’ll remain the inconsistent player he is today for the duration of the season, or change courses.
For now, the high percentage of vertical routes he runs and his aDOT indicate that when things break right for Floyd, it will be in a big way. Had he reeled in his drop in the end zone, and Carson Palmer hit him in stride on a vertical route that he separated cleanly on, Floyd would be coming off a two-catch 100-plus yard day. But that represents his wide range right now; he lives anywhere between a zero and an over 20-point fantasy outing.
Whether optimistic or pessimistic, owners should be looking to bring Floyd on here at the beginning of the crunch time in fantasy seasons. He makes for a great buy low right now. Try and deal a boring depth player for Floyd, and see if he develops a little point per game consistency. If he does not, your bench should only have high weekly upside players during the run to the fantasy playoffs anyways. For this week, against Dallas, some daily players (depending on the site used) should be willing to ride the lighting again. His price on Fan Duel is not great at $6,500, but his $3,800 tag on Draft Kings is as tantalizing as a Sunday brunch spread. At that value, he’s a no brainer in tournaments.