High Floors or High Ceilings

Every year leading up to draft season, there are players described as "safe" or as "players with high floors." There are others who are more risky, "high-ceiling" players. Many people single themselves or their league-mates out as the risk-averse type or as the gambling type. The risk-averse group will say that they take fliers in late rounds, but everyone does that. If we truly knew what we were getting from guys picked after the 10th round, they'd be getting picked higher (or not at all).

For the purposes of this exercise, we'll be picking 6th in a 12-team PPR league snake draft. We'll look at players whose Consensus PPR ADP's (average of all five fields on the FBG ADP page last updated on August 19) are within a reasonable number slots of our pick. At the end, we'll have two teams from which we'll pick the best mix of players (one per round obviously).

First of all, this strategy will keep your opponents guessing. Secondly, having some high-floor players will keep your team competitive when your "boom or bust" guys don't boom. I believe a championship team can't just have safe players thoughout. Whether it be drafting or acquiring through the waiver wire, every successful fantasy team has players that can win them a week almost on their own.

Players highlighted in GREEN are "high floor, low ceiling" players while players highlighted in PURPLE are "high ceiling but potentially low floor" guys. Please keep in mind that having Ray Rice as a GREEN player doesn't mean I think his ceiling is lower than Ryan Mathews because Mathews is a PURPLE player. The designations are simply given relative to other players in the same round. The players in BOLD are the actual selections used.

No one in Round 1 has a truly low floor, but it's clear that a guy like C.J. Spiller has a lower floor and higher ceiling than players like Ray Rice, Trent Richardson, and Marshawn Lynch, makign Spiller an ideal pick for Team Risk Taker. On the other hand, Team Safety First would likely take Rice in a PPR format. Due to Baltimore's lack of receiving options, Rice should catch at least 70 passes.

In Round 2, a player like Demaryius Thomas on what should be an offensive juggernaut is the high-floor player. Julio Jones is a player that many think can be right behind Calvin Johnson, while others believe he should be ranked more in the WR6-8 range. The Risk Taker is hoping for the former scenario.

DeMarco Murray is a first-round fantasy talent but has obvious injury concerns. On what could be a high-octane Dallas offense, Murray will have a lot of chances to put up points, provided he stays on the field. Victor Cruz is a great high-floor PPR receiver for Safety First. Eli Manning's favorite target should be in line for at least 85 catches.

As Round 4 begins, both teams are still seeing a lot of pass-catching options on the board. Safety First gets the safe tight end to be sure his or her bases are covered with solid options at each starting position. Risk Taker sees a physically-gifted receiver with a past history of fantasy success who gets his best offensive coach and best quarterback of his career. Dwayne Bowe has WR1 upside.

Continuing to acquire second-tier receivers with tier-one upside, Risk Taker grabs Pierre Garcon - a player who was a high-end receiver whenever he was on the field last season. Safety First realizes that it only has one running back and snags Eddie Lacy, despite his limited upside in PPR leagues.

Round 6 seems to be when a lot of quarterbacks are coming off the board. Both owners here have taken the advice of most experts and waited on quarterback. Now that seven have come off the board, it's time to pounce. Safety First knows what he/she is getting with Andrew Luck, while Risk Taker sees the "sky-is-the-limit" potential in Colin Kaepernick.

Tavon Austin is considered to be an "overdrafted" player by many, but he does offer a 100-catch ceiling, which is obvously appealing in PPR formats - especially to an owner like Risk Taker. Steve Johnson is what he is at this point. He's the ideal high-floor, low-ceiling player and will most likely finish within a couple spots of where he's drafted among wide receivers.

In Round 8, Safety First sees another starting running back in the Lacy mold who won't catch a ton of passes but will get plenty goal line chances on excellent offenses. Risk Taker sees the tantalizing size/speed combination of Kenny Britt and throws a penny in the wishing well.

Safety First continues to snag limited-upside runners by grabbing Bernard Pierce in Round 9. This is fitting as this team also drafted Ray Rice in the first round, so they got their handcuff here. Risk Taker actually took a similar strategy, snagging Fred Jackson while already having Spiller on the roster.

When the double-digit rounds come along is when the better fantasy owners separate themselves. Safety First snags Emmanuel Sanders, a nice pick but a guy unlikely to yield high-end WR3 numbers. The asset-collecting Risk Taker snags Michael Vick here. Despite having Kaepernick already, Vick offers enough upside to perhaps tempt a fellow owner to trade for him (or to make this owner contemplate trading Kaepernick).

Round 11 has Safety First grabbing Pierre Thomas. He's a nice PPR player and is likely to play a lot if Ingram were to miss time, but his ceiling is limited even if that does happen. Risk Taker finally takes a starting tight end, giving athletic freak Jordan Cameron a shot. Cameron is being drafted as TE13 but has the physical tools to finish in the top half-dozen at the position. He fits the idealogy of this team perfectly.

In Round 12, Safety First grabs a low-end starting receiver but a starting receiver nonetheless in Alshon Jeffery. Risk Taker grabs a "lottery-ticket" type of player in Detroit's Ryan Broyles. Broyles, if he can grab the second receiver job, could be the surprise of many leagues this season.

Let's take a look at each team's roster by position.

To combine the best of both worlds, we need to see both teams in the order they were drafted and highlight one player per round to keep for our ultimate team.

Taking all of the highlighted players, here is the "Super Team" by position.

Maybe it's because I personally like most of these players this season, but I think this team is stacked by any measure. In terms of PPR ADP, this team would start QB10, RB4, RB25, WR6, WR11, WR14, TE13, and either WR31, WR36, or RB43 as a FLEX option. If this team lacks anything, it's depth at running back. If you're in a league that starts only two receivers instead of three, you could have easily grabbed Murray instead of Cruz or even Ingram instead of Britt later in the draft.

I would feel comfortable saying that this team would be stronger at wide receiver than every other team in the league. In PPR formats (especially those that start three receivers and could flex a fourth), that's incredibly advantageous.

Summary

I'd recommend doing an exercise like this before your draft. Get to know your opponents and which rankings lists they prefer, grab an ADP list (there's one sortable and customizable by multiple sources available here on the site), and perform this exercise for your draft slot. If you're 6th or close to it, I already did it for you. If you're not, pick an acceptable range such as one to three slots either way around your pick and determine the range of players that will most likely be available to you.

While flexibility is key in any draft due to the unexpected nature of things that will transpire, you'll find that most your preparation will help you during the process. For instance, there will inevitably be more than one player you like in a certain round. Should the one you don't pick slide to the next round, you'll definitely know who to pick in the next round (and you'll get great value at that). Remember: flexibility is key, but preparation leads to domination!