Upside Only: Swinging for the Fences at QB

Consider this article a reminder that the late-round quarterback strategy is built on years of data and can still work. Last year's version of this article hit multiple bullseyes with Justin Fields (the cover boy), Trevor Lawrence, and Daniel Jones all being profits on their ADPs. Only Trey Lance was a miss, and he was injured early in the season.

These are the reasons why the late-round quarterback strategy works:

1. Positional Scarcity
2. Flat Scoring Distribution at Quarterback
3. Quarterback is a Predictable Position
4. Quarterback is a Replaceable Position

Please note that all assumptions in this article are based on typical league setups (i.e., one-quarterback leagues with 18 or fewer roster spots).

Positional Scarcity

Here are the starting players in a 12-team fantasy league vs. how many available NFL starters are at each position.

• Quarterbacks: 12 fantasy starters, 24 legitimate NFL contributors
• Running Backs: 24-36 fantasy starters, 48 legitimate NFL contributors
• Wide Receivers: 36-48 fantasy starters, 52 legitimate NFL contributors

* The "NFL contributors" figures assume that certain passing offenses aren't palatable in typical fantasy leagues (hence the reduction from 32 at quarterback and 64 at receiver) and make assumptions that committee/third-down running backs are fantasy relevant (thus, a number greater than 32).

At the risk of over-simplifying things, which position seems least important? Here are the same numbers presented in a non-football way. Let's say you're hosting a cookout, and your grocery list consists of 12 sides and 30 hamburgers. Your local grocery store is running out of stock as you and 11 other people enter the store. Which of the following are you going to pick up first?

• 12 sides when 30 are available
• 30 burgers when 48 are available

Apologies to any vegetarians out there, but even a non-meat eater should understand the supply and demand here. Get the meat first and figure out the sides later.

Takeaway: fantasy leagues require fewer quarterback starters while more are available, making it a position with high supply and low demand.

Flat Scoring Distribution

The delta between a middling starter and a low-end starter at quarterback is notably different than a flex player in fantasy football. Below are the point differentials by position:

• QB4 to QB12: 3.5-4.5 fantasy points per game
• RB8 to RB36: 6.0-7.5 fantasy points per game
• WR8 to WR36: 5.5-6.5 fantasy points per game