Doug Martin is a very intriguing third year running back that had a phenomenal rookie season, but unfortunately his second year was cut short by a shoulder injury. He is certainly the most talented back on the Tampa Bay roster and he has the ability and intangibles to be a solid three down back in this league. He is a physical runner with great vision and balance who is tough to bring down. On top of that, he is a good receiver and great in pass protection. But as we saw last year, his aggressive running style does invite contact. Couple that with a very weak looking offensive line and there is certainly cause for concern. Fortunately for Tampa, as good as Martin is, the team will still be in great shape if he goes down, even with the loss of Charles Sims to ankle surgery. In fact, the teams running production actually went up last season, as their running backs saw lighter boxes. If Marting goes down, the team should not skip a beat.
BUY
Bobby Rainey, RB - Rainey is currently running right behind Martin, and with the news of Charles Sims needing ankle surgery, Rainey should be involved even when Martin is healthy as a change-of-pace back. If Martin did go down though, we see him forming a committee with Mike James, who is a bigger back and would most likeley take over some of the early down work. Tampa Bay Offensive Coordinator, Jeff Tedford, has a history of using multiple running backs as he did at Cal. Some of the combos he coached include: J.J. Arrington/Marshawn Lynch, Lynch/Justin Forsett and Jahvid Best/Shane Vereen. But as he showed last season, Rainey can perform when given a chance. While not elite in any area, when Martin and James went down, Rainey was the next man up and rushed for 566 yards and five touchdowns, including a 163 yard, 2 touchdown week 11 against Atlanta and a 127 yard, 1 touchdown week 14 against Buffalo.
Charles Sims, RB – If Sims is back from ankle surgery when Martin goes down, Sims should get first crack at taking over lead duties, although it will certainly be a committee approach. Sims is probably the most versatile running back in this year’s rookie class and has often been compared to Matt Forte. He is a quality receiver that has great hands, runs good routes and has been noted as a solid pass protector. While he doesn’t always play to his size, with 4.4s speed, he is a threat to break one any time he touches the ball. In PPR leagues, he could certainly have legitimate RB2 upside.
HOLD
Josh McCown, QB – Not matter who the running back is, we don’t see OC Tedford altering his game plan too much. Tampa will still feature a balanced approach, using the run to set up the pass. The teams wide receivers should also see very little change in their usage, although it is possible Tedford calls a few more pass plays than he otherwise would have. But with the depth at running back and their offensive philosophy, not much will change.
SELL
The team should continue to operate as business as usual.
ADD
Mike James, RB – James is currently in a head-to-head battle with Bobby Rainey, with Rainey slightly ahead at the moment, as James still works his way back from ankle injury. If Martin goes down, we like James to take over early down duties, including the goal line work, most likely forming a committee with Rainey. James doesn’t have a lot of wiggle, but he is a big, bruising runner who is not afraid of contact and has enough juice to get to the second level. When Martin went down last season, James played well. He got a majority of the touches in weeks seven, eight and nine, inlcuding exploding for 158 yards on 28 carries playing at Seattle.
Autin Seferian-Jenkins, TE - Austin Seferian-Jenkins, or possibly Brandon Myers, could be used more out of the slot if Martin goes down. Neither Rainey nor James are dynamic pass catchers, so Seferian-Jenkins could give them a bit of a boost in the passing and screen game.
DROP
No one. There should be relatively little change if the other backs take over. If anything, it could open things up a bit more for the running backs who may face lighter boxes than Martin.
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