It's hard to believe that we're just a week away from the start of the NFL regular season. For many fans, they're just now starting to pay attention. But for fantasy owners, for FOOTBALLGUYS, we're already many months into our preparation. As one of the contributors to the site's projections, I have to have the entire league modeled and projected by late April. Needless to say, a LOT of things happen between then and the beginning of September. I, along with the other staff, tweak our projections and expectations as we go along. But it occurs to me that very little is ever said about the way our opinions change. This article, and others like it, will highlight in a qualitative manner the assumptions that went into my initial projections that have since changed considerably. Enjoy.
On Second Thought...
…Dennis Pitta (BAL) is a top 10 fantasy tight end
I’ve come around on Pitta after initially feeling he was overrated a few months ago. Coming off a missed season and with Owen Daniels and Steve Smith joining the Ravens this offseason, I viewed Pitta as a chain-mover whose ceiling was reached in 2012 (61 for 669 and 7). Yet, Pitta was arguably the most impressive player in Ravens camp and has an unquestioned rapport with Flacco. Combined with a poor showing by Owen Daniels, I’m now in line with the consensus in thinking a healthy Pitta can deliver top 6-8 value in PPR formats.
…Tyler Eifert (CIN) offers tremendous value
Eifert is being drafted 21st among tight ends, due in part to lack of excitement for the Bengals new run-focused offense and in part because of Eifert’s lingering shoulder injury. Neither concerns me particularly at his cost. Eifert was being drafted higher LAST YEAR as a rookie. While his rookie numbers weren’t stellar (39 for 445 and 2 TDs), they were in-line with the likes of Jason Witten, Antonio Gates and Tony Gonzalez’ rookie campaigns. With Marvin Jones out for an extended period, Eifert should be Andy Dalton’s second favorite target.
…Jordan Cameron (CLE) ranks below Julius Thomas (DEN)
Most of you are thinking, “Wow, what a revelation” yet I started this preseason thinking Cameron would build off last year’s numbers while Julius Thomas was likely to regress a bit. I’ve done a 180 for myriad reasons, but most importantly because of the sorry state of the Browns passing attack and the likelihood that opposing defenses will routinely double-team Cameron since he’s the only top-tier weapon in the lineup.
…Julius Thomas (DEN) is worth the risk
I haven’t been a fan of rostering Julius Thomas at his ADP of 29th overall, but I’ve warmed up to his being worth taking 3rd at his position. Thomas’ ankle injuries and his reliance on touchdowns for his fantasy value last year remain concerns, but Wes Welker’s concussion combined with Eric Decker’s departure makes Thomas the 2nd most intriguing target in the Denver offense (behind Demaryius Thomas); he’s capable of Jimmy Graham-like numbers if he can play 16 games.
…I still believe there is no Green Bay TE worth drafting, but Richard Rodgers (GB) is the sleeper to watch on waivers
The Packers tight end situation remains unsettled as we near the start of the regular season, and there is too much depth to speculate here except in the very deepest of leagues. Yet rookie Richard Rodgers should be on your waiver watch list as he’s flashed polished route running and a willingness to attack the ball in space. If he earns the starting job and starts getting regular snaps, he’s worth an add particularly if your starter flames out.
…Garrett Graham (HOU) is a low end TE2
Graham was my 12th ranked TE in my first set of projections in April but I’ve since lost faith in his potential mainly because of a lack of confidence in Ryan Fitpatrick. I would still be okay with Graham as a TE2 in deeper leagues, but there are many other TEs I like better as potential breakouts
…Coby Fleener (IND) is not a top 12 fantasy TE
Probably the most controversial view of my early preseason rankings was a strong belief in Coby Fleener’s breakout potential. Fleener, after all, is Andrew Luck’s best friend and played with him (and OC Pep Hamilton) at Stanford. Yet, it seems as though a healthy Dwayne Allen is going to have a significant role, too. I’m not on the Allen bandwagon either; these two young tight ends are going to commoditize one another.
…Travis Kelce (KC) is a breakout player worth drafting
2nd year TE tight end Travis Kelce entered the league with plenty of talent, but questions about his medicals were followed up by a lost season. You never want to overrate preseason stats but Kelce has been healthy throughout the preseason, has been dominant in games and practices, and plays for a team in dire need of receiving targets.
…Kyle Rudolph (MIN) has a chance to be elite
Rudolph was a top 10 fantasy TE in 2012 thanks to 9 touchdowns, but ended up missing half of last season with a broken foot. I wasn’t looking at Rudolph as a viable TE1 this year given the uncertainty at the QB position, but Rudolph’s strong preseason combined with Norv Turner’s propensity to get the most out of his tight ends has me open to the idea of Rudolph finishing in the top 6-8.
…Tim Wright (NE) will make an impact in New England
Wright was the odd man out in Tampa Bay in spite of a ridiculously impressive rookie season (54 receptions for 571 yards and 5 touchdowns) and was traded this week to New England. NFL Network’s Ian Rappaport believes Bill Belichick views Wright as the next Aaron Hernandez. Needless to say if that’s true, Wright makes an awesome late round grab as your TE2.
…Zach Ertz (PHI) has top 5 potential
I’m an Eagles fan, and perhaps guilty of being too critical of Philadelphia players. I never doubted Ertz’ talents but Chip Kelly loves to spread the ball around and I didn’t think Ertz would see enough targets to be a fantasy starter. I was wrong. He’s been the best player in camp, period. He’ll lead the team in receptions and receiving TDs if he plays 16 games.
