It's Hard Out Here for a Rookie
If you're reading this, there's a good chance you love football. And our collective fandom has an insatiable appetite for NFL-related content, which has turned the fantasy football industry into a 12-month, 365-day endeavor. The "offseason" is a misnomer, as we all watch free agency with feverish zeal, and then our attention turns to the NFL draft. We watch excitedly as teams use seven rounds of picks to bolster their rosters and further build training camp depth with undrafted free agent signings.
RELATED: See a look at Quarterback Draft Capital here.
RELATED: See a look at Running Back Draft Capital here.
History tells us there's no one formula for NFL success. Amon-Ra St. Brown was a fourth-round pick and the 17th receiver drafted in 2021 but finished as WR24. Even more impressive was Puka Nacua finishing as WR5 after being the 20th receiver off the board in the fifth round. If you've been playing fantasy football long enough, you probably have a later-round success story or two in your history.
But here's the truth: the industry massively overstates the value of rookie receivers, particularly beyond the first round. For every Nacua or St. Brown, there are dozens of rookies who have little to no impact. Yet, a quick Google search right now will yield a never-ending series of articles touting almost every rookie receiver who "can really surprise" or is "poised to make an immediate impact."
Numbers Don't Lie
- 326 wide receivers were drafted from 2015 to 2024 (10 seasons).
- 49 of those (15%) finished in the Top 48, which is the threshold for full-season fantasy relevance in 12-team leagues that start three receivers plus at least one flex spot.
- 30 rookie receivers (9%) ranked in the Top 36, meaning they performed like full-time starters in most redraft leagues.
- 19 receivers (6%) finished in the Top 24.
- Only 6 (2%) finished as top-12 fantasy receivers.
Now let's look at those fantasy-relevant receivers with draft capital added to the conversation.
| Player | Year | Recs | RecYds | TDs | Fantasy Points | WR Fantasy Rank | NFL Round |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ja'Marr Chase | 2021 | 81 | 1,455 | 13 | 304.5 | 4 | 1 |
| Brian Thomas Jr. | 2024 | 87 | 1,282 | 10 | 275.2 | 5 | 1 |
| Puka Nacua | 2023 | 105 | 1,486 | 6 | 289.6 | 5 | 5 |
| Malik Nabers | 2024 | 109 | 1,204 | 7 | 271.4 | 6 | 1 |
| Justin Jefferson | 2020 | 88 | 1,400 | 7 | 270.0 | 7 | 1 |
| Michael Thomas | 2016 | 92 | 1,137 | 9 | 259.7 | 7 | 2 |
| Ladd McConkey | 2024 | 82 | 1,149 | 7 | 238.9 | 13 | 1 |
| Jaylen Waddle | 2021 | 104 | 1,015 | 6 | 241.5 | 14 | 1 |
| Garrett Wilson | 2022 | 83 | 1,103 | 4 | 217.3 | 20 | 1 |
| Calvin Ridley | 2018 | 64 | 821 | 10 | 206.1 | 20 | 1 |
| JuJu Smith-Schuster | 2017 | 58 | 917 | 7 | 191.7 | 20 | 2 |
| Amari Cooper | 2015 | 70 | 1,060 | 6 | 212.0 | 21 | 1 |
| Jordan Addison | 2023 | 70 | 911 | 10 | 221.1 | 22 | 1 |
| Chris Olave | 2022 | 72 | 1,042 | 4 | 200.2 | 23 | 1 |
| Rashee Rice | 2023 | 79 | 938 | 7 | 214.8 | 24 | 2 |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | 2021 | 90 | 912 | 5 | 211.2 | 24 | 4 |
| Chase Claypool | 2020 | 62 | 873 | 9 | 203.3 | 24 | 2 |
| A.J. Brown | 2019 | 52 | 1,051 | 8 | 205.1 | 24 | 2 |
| Cooper Kupp | 2017 | 62 | 869 | 5 | 178.9 | 24 | 3 |
| CeeDee Lamb | 2020 | 74 | 935 | 5 | 197.5 | 26 | 1 |
| Marvin Harrison Jr. | 2024 | 62 | 885 | 8 | 198.5 | 27 | 1 |
| Tee Higgins | 2020 | 67 | 908 | 6 | 193.8 | 27 | 2 |
| Terry McLaurin | 2019 | 58 | 919 | 7 | 191.9 | 28 | 3 |
| Drake London | 2022 | 72 | 866 | 4 | 182.6 | 29 | 1 |
| DeVonta Smith | 2021 | 64 | 916 | 5 | 185.6 | 29 | 1 |
| DK Metcalf | 2019 | 58 | 900 | 7 | 190.0 | 30 | 2 |
| Zay Flowers | 2023 | 77 | 858 | 5 | 192.8 | 33 | 1 |
| Jayden Reed | 2023 | 64 | 793 | 8 | 191.3 | 34 | 2 |
| Sterling Shepard | 2016 | 65 | 683 | 8 | 181.3 | 34 | 2 |
| Darius Slayton | 2019 | 48 | 740 | 8 | 170.0 | 35 | 5 |
| Diontae Johnson | 2019 | 59 | 680 | 5 | 157.0 | 38 | 3 |
| George Pickens | 2022 | 52 | 801 | 4 | 156.1 | 40 | 2 |
| Brandon Aiyuk | 2020 | 60 | 748 | 5 | 164.8 | 40 | 1 |
| DJ Moore | 2018 | 55 | 788 | 2 | 145.8 | 40 | 1 |
| Tank Dell | 2023 | 47 | 709 | 7 | 159.9 | 41 | 3 |
| Deebo Samuel Sr. | 2019 | 57 | 803 | 3 | 155.3 | 41 | 2 |
| Xavier Worthy | 2024 | 59 | 638 | 6 | 158.8 | 42 | 1 |
| Tyler Lockett | 2015 | 51 | 664 | 6 | 153.4 | 42 | 3 |
| Rome Odunze | 2024 | 54 | 734 | 3 | 145.4 | 44 | 1 |
| Jerry Jeudy | 2020 | 52 | 856 | 3 | 155.6 | 44 | 1 |
| Courtland Sutton | 2018 | 42 | 704 | 4 | 136.4 | 44 | 2 |
| Keelan Cole Sr.. | 2017 | 42 | 748 | 3 | 134.8 | 44 | U/D |
| Stefon Diggs | 2015 | 52 | 720 | 4 | 148.0 | 44 | 5 |
| Marquise Brown | 2019 | 46 | 584 | 7 | 146.4 | 45 | 1 |
| Tyreek Hill | 2016 | 61 | 593 | 6 | 156.3 | 45 | 5 |
| Christian Watson | 2022 | 41 | 611 | 7 | 144.1 | 46 | 2 |
| Jalen McMillan | 2024 | 37 | 461 | 8 | 131.1 | 47 | 3 |
| Elijah Moore | 2021 | 43 | 538 | 5 | 126.8 | 47 | 2 |
| Jahan Dotson | 2022 | 35 | 523 | 7 | 129.3 | 48 | 1 |
| Gabe Davis | 2020 | 35 | 599 | 7 | 136.9 | 48 | 4 |
- 23 of 50 (46%) were first-round picks.
- 14 (28%) were second-round picks
- 6 (12%) were drafted in the third round.
- 2 (4%) were fourth-rounders.
- 4 (8%) were fifth-round picks.
- 0 (0%) sixth-rounders ranked.
- 0 (0%) seventh-rounders ranked.
- 1 (2%) was an undrafted rookie free agent.
If you've read our companion rookie running back article, you'll note that receiver draft capital is far more predictive. Nearly 50% of all fantasy-relevant rookie receivers over the last decade were drafted in the first round.
For further context, here are the 10-year hit rates for rookie wide receivers, by round: