Avoid the Day 3 Trap
If you’re reading this, there’s a good chance you love football. And our collective fandom has an insatiable appetite for NFL-related content, which has turned the fantasy football industry into a 12-month, 365-day endeavor. The "offseason" is a misnomer, as we all watch free agency with feverish zeal, and then our attention turns to the NFL draft. We watch excitedly as teams use seven rounds of picks to bolster their rosters and further build training camp depth with undrafted free agent signings.
RELATED: See a look at Quarterback Draft Capital here.
History tells us there's no one formula for NFL success. James Robinson was an undrafted free agent and put up a top-10 season in 2020. Bucky Irving was the sixth running back off the board last April (4th round) but finished RB14 (PPR), well ahead of any other rookie. In fact, you probably have a later-round success story or two in your history managing fantasy rosters.
But here's the truth: the industry collectively overstates the value of later-round rookie running backs.
For every Robinson or Irving, there are dozens of rookies who have little to no impact. Yet, a quick Google search right now will yield a never-ending series of articles touting just about every rookie tailback who went "later than he should" or "has the tools to succeed."
Numbers Don’t Lie
- 219 running backs were drafted from 2015 to 2024 (10 seasons).
- 45 of those (21%) finished in the Top 36, which is the threshold for a full-season starting-caliber tailback in 12-team leagues with at least one flex spot.
- 26 running backs (12%) ranked in the Top 24, meaning they performed like full-time starters in just about any redraft format.
- Only 12 (6%) finished as top-12 fantasy runners.
Now let’s look at those fantasy-relevant tailbacks with draft capital added to the conversation.
