FanDuel Playing the Percentages: Week 16

Photo: Mark J. Rebilas, USA Today Sports

This weekly article will focus on Fanduel.com cash games where being above-average is the phrase that pays. With tournaments and low-probability setups, a unique lineup and making bold decisions make for a quality entry. With cash games, the mantra shifts to ‘avoiding the suck’ as the annual David Dodds strategy article outlines. In a 100-player Double-Up game, finishing No.1 or No.45 pays the same. Cash games like this are the mutual funds of daily fantasy games: grind week by week and end the season with a hearty profit, minimizing the risk of losing a bankroll along the way. At a minimum, playing cash games round out a high-variance daily player’s portfolio.

Here are some general player selection guidelines:

HIGH-OWNERSHIP PLAYERS

In the first half of the 2014 NFL season, ownership data was available on FanDuel when Thursday Night Football lineups locked. Now, that is not the case. Fortunately, the high-ownership players aligned with the value plays according to my projection system quite often. Playing highly owned commodities in head-to-head, Double-ups, and 50/50s insulates the scoring floor in relation to other teams to surpass the money line. The ownership data provided below is from various rosters submitted to large 50-50 and Double-Up games at FanDuel prior to Thursday Night Football's lock. Not all players were submitted to gauge ownership, but all of the best values for the week were involved.

HIGH-VOLUME PLAYERS

A rogue long touchdown or goal line carry can propel a tournament player to victory on Monday Night Football, going from a donated entry fee to a big pay day. In the cash games arena, an insulated floor of expected targets, carries, and passes keeps daily players in the hunt by Sunday and Monday night. While the top overall score in the group is unlikely, being above the cash out line is a positive expected value scenario.

BEST MATCHUPS

In addition to high-ownership and high-volume opportunities, the best cash game plays center around the ideal matchups of the week. That is a two-fold proposition as the Vegas lines (point spread and over/under) give an indication of likely game flow and fantasy points allowed can turn typical middling options into top value plays. When combining high-ownership, high-volume, and positive matchups, the optimal plays for the week reveal themselves.

LAST WEEK'S LINEUPS

BY THE OWNERSHIP NUMBERS

• Derek Anderson
• LeVeon Bell
• Justin Forsett
• Antonio Brown
• Odell Beckham Jr/strong>
• Marquess Wilson
• Martellus Bennett
• Cairo Santos
• Chiefs