One of the more fascinating games of last week was the Miami Dolphins' late loss to the Detroit Lions in Detroit.
The Dolphins have seemingly turned their season around after a rough start that seemingly had head coach Joe Philbin contemplating a quarterback change. Even though the Lions snapped their winning streak, the Dolphins will feel good about their ability to make the playoffs after a decent display in Detroit. One of the biggest issues the Dolphins did have against the Lions was their inability to run the ball. Behind an overwhelmed offensive line, the Dolphins attempted just 16 runs from their running backs for 58 yards.
Of those 58 yards, rookie Damien Williams had 34 on seven carries. Williams had twice as many total touches as Lamar Miller, while the other back who was used in this game, Daniel Thomas, had his carries cut after a fumble in the third quarter.
While the Dolphins' running game as a whole looks to be bleak, Williams was the one player who showed some elusiveness and versatility with the ball in his hands against the Lions. Even though Lamar Miller is the more proven player at this stage, the Dolphins have never shown a desire to make him their bell-cow back whether they were splitting time between he and the inferior Thomas last season or signing Knowshon Moreno in free agency to take away a large number of his touches. With that in mind, Williams may be worth a speculative addition as a potential breakout player moving forward.
Williams is a 22-year-old, diminuitive running back who went undrafted in 2014. To this point in his rookie season, he has 31 rushes for 100 yards and seven receptions for 62 yards. He has provided a spark at times in a difficult situation without ever being asked to carry a heavy load.
Although Miller is a more impressive all-around athlete, Williams' quickness allows him to make more defenders miss when plays break down. This is something that the Dolphins needed against the Lions and it may be something they need more often moving forward without starting left tackle Branden Albert. Miller's value for the Dolphins was that he could exploit space against lesser defenses who struggled to match up to the team's scheme. When the scheme was able to stretch the space over the middle of the field, Miller had the speed and vision to take advantage of it.
Miller should still be considered the favorite to get most of the touches for the Dolphins, but it's plays like this one that give Williams a chance to lessen his load. Williams uses his quickness and vision to intiially escape from the outside penetration before skipping past a defender in space. He creates yardage behind the line of scrimmage before being aggressive in his decision making past the line of scrimmage. The play itself only gains six yards or so, but Williams could easily have been taken down for a three or four yard loss if he hadn't been so effective behind the line of scrimmage.
In the fourth quarter, Williams showed off his ability to take advantage of space.
The drop-off between Miller and Williams' explosiveness is notable, but when he is given effective blocking, he has the ability to get downfield in a hurry. He likely won't threaten the defense for many 20+ yard runs, but he also won't be caught before crossing 10 yards in the right situations. Williams created more yardage on this play with his ability to slip past an incoming defender in space, but he was never given a clean running lane to the end zone that he could attack to show off his straight-line speed.
Receiving ability for a back in Bill Lazor's offense isn't massively important. While that doesn't mean they won't throw the ball to the running back, it does mean that the back is unlikely to spend much time lined up out wide running complex routes.
Backs in Lazor's offense simply need to be able to catch the ball in space, often underneath, and show off the ability to take advantage of space after the catch. It's a more simplified pattern of usage than most offensive systems put on the running back position. Furthermore, backs in Lazor's offense don't really need to be exceptional pass protecters either because they spend most of their time carrying out play fakes when the offense sets itself up to pass the ball. On the above play, we see Williams' ability to catch the ball in the flat before turning upfield and breaking multiple tackles for a first down. He understood how to set up his initial turn by the way he caught the ball.
It was very much the play of a natural receiving back rather than a player who is being effective out of his comfort zone.
Because of his size, Williams will likely be just a complementary receiving option over the long term. However, over the short term, if he sustains this level of play on his current number of touches, then the Dolphins may be encouraged to make him a greater part of the offense. He was somewhat productive against the Lions defense, a unit that completely dominated the Dolphins offensive line, so that production and effectiveness may be able to multiply when facing a better matchup.
Cecil Shorts
A broken foot has ruled out Jacksonville Jaguars starting wide receiver Allen Robinson for the rest of the season. Robinson was playing well for the Jaguars, even though his production was being limited by poor quarterback play from fellow rookie Blake Bortles and by the kind of routes he was being asked to run. Furthermore, fellow rookie receiver Allen Hurns was forced to leave last week's game against the Dallas Cowboys because of a concussion, leaving just Cecil Shorts as the only fully healthy receiver of the Jaguars' top three entering the bye week.
Given two weeks to return, Hurns will likely take Robinson's place in the starting lineup coming out of the bye, with either Marqise Lee or Ace Sanders stepping into the third receiver role.
Shorts and Hurns should both receive bumps from Robinson's absence, but in their last outing, Hurns was barely involved in the game while Shorts excelled on the targets that he received. Shorts hasn't been a productive receiver for some time, largely because of his quarterback situation and because he has never appeared to be fully healthy. Before his last outing against the Cowboys, Shorts had accumulated 28 receptions for 256 yards and one touchdown.
In just one game, the veteran receiver almost compiled half of his yards in the previous six games. Shorts caught five passes for 119 yards against the Cowboys.
While this could simply be an abnormality and it is very unlikely that Shorts will suddenly turn into a valuable fantasy receiver, the injury to Robinson makes him a receiver worth watching. If Shorts had simply benefited from better quarterback play, then his production would be even less notable, but instead his production came in a game when Blake Bortles looked exactly like Blake Bortles had looked for the previous weeks since he became the team's starter.
For his first reception of the game, Shorts came free over the middle on a deep crossing route after play action. He didn't have to do much to come free and Bortles found him with an accurate pass. What stood out on this play was Shorts' ability to break tackles after the catch, which is something he hasn't done with any kind of regularity over the past year and a half. Shorts' extended this play past its natural gain, which is something he did on a regular basis in this game.
This is a simple screen play to Shorts with good blocking. However, what stands out is Shorts' initial burst and his physicality at the end of the play. He doesn't simply settle for the six or seven yards that the play gave him, he fought forward to try and get the first down. Although he isn't able to reach past the first down marker, this is the kind of speed that Shorts hasn't consistently played at in recent times. Too often he would have been knocked backwards at the point of contact.
When the Jaguars went from Chad Henne to Blake Bortles, Shorts' potential targets dropped because Henne had a tendency to focus on him last season. Bortles is more likely to spread the ball around, which lowers Shorts' potential number of targets. However, the rookie quarterback raises the quality of his targets with that wilingness to spread the ball around and his athleticism.
On this play, Bortles doesn't initially have a receiver to throw to because Shorts is covered on a deep crossing route. Bortles doesn't panic, he holds onto the ball without rushing into a decision or trying to scramble. This gives Shorts time to adjust to the coverage and find a pocket of space down the field. That is what he does and Bortles finds him with an acrobatic throw. When he turns down the field, Shorts is able to sprint into space and gain 32 yards with relative ease.
That was Shorts' second longest reception of the game. His longest came on a slant route and largely consisted of yards after the catch.
Shorts ran a slant route against press coverage and freed himself with relative ease. Bortles threw him a fastball that was too high, but Shorts was able to adjust to it without hesitating. Despite the poorly placed ball from his quarterback, Shorts is able to continue down the field for more than 50 yards with his athleticism. Part of Shorts' ability to come free on this play was the quality and play call of the defense, but the primary reason for it was Shorts' own ability to beat the initial coverage and carry the ball down the field.
In his fourth season, Shorts is playing for his next contract. He isn't assured of a strong offer from the Jaguars because of their rookie additions this year, so he shouldn't have to look far for motivation. If he is motivated and healthy, Shorts should be a somewhat productive receiver even if he is not a top 10 option.
Other Thoughts from the Tape
Michael Vick didn't play spectacularly well in the New York Jets' victory over the Pittsburgh Steelers. However, the Jets' play calling was impressive as it played to the strengths of the offense as a whole and kept the Steelers defense off balance. Vick's physical ability is still quite evident and even though he didn't throw for a huge amount of yardage last week, he does have some weapons that can create big plays to take the burden off of him. He should be productive over the run-in to the fantasy season.
It doesn't take much to say that Andy Dalton was awful last week, but one of the more undersold aspects of that game was A.J. Green's poor play when his targets were accurate. Green wasn't shut down by Joe Haden, Dalton did that, but when he was found he dropped two passes. Drops have become somewhat of an issue for Green over the past 12 months or so.
Speaking of elite receivers with drop issues, Julio Jones added another drop to his collection for the season last week. Jones has been inconsistent this year coming off of a significant injury in 2013. It's understandable considering his time out and the significance of the injury, but right now he should be treated with muted skepticism. He is still a big play threat for anywhere on the field and should have had a touchdown early against Tampa, but Matt Ryan underthrew him.
Josh McCown didn't hold back Mike Evans if you solely look at his statistical production, but there's no question that the offense was more limited with McCown starting over Mike Glennon. Evans performed in spite of his quarterback, adjusting brilliantly to two passes including one long touchdown reception. That long touchdown reception came on a play when Evans pushed off to create separation against the defensive back covering him. This was an issue dating back to college and is something worth monitoring moving forward because Evans isn't subtle with his actions.
