The Green Bay Packers offense has more talent at the skill positions than any other entering the 2014 NFL season.
It's hard to argue that there is a better backfield duo in the NFL than Aaron Rodgers and Eddie Lacy. Rodgers is the most talented quarterback in the NFL, while Lacy surpassed all expectations as a rookie. Lacy proved last year that he could produce without Rodgers drawing the attention of the defense, while Rodgers himself has consistently proven that he can produce in any kind of situation. With Jordy Nelson, one of the best receivers in the NFL, Randall Cobb, Jarrett Boykin, Andrew Quarless and multiple rookie additions to complement him, the offense looks set to only be derailed by injuries or poor offensive line play.
Even being in contention for that crown is impressive considering who the Packers have lost in recent years.
Over the past two seasons, four key members of the receiving corps have departed in different ways. Donald Driver and Greg Jennings left before the 2013 season. Driver retired after 14 seasons in the NFL, while Jennings signed with the Packers' division rival Minnesota Vikings. Once the season began, a significant spinal chord injury ended tight end Jermichael Finley's spell with the Packers(at least temporarily as he remains a free agent). After the 2013 season, veteran James Jones signed with the Oakland Raiders.
Those four receivers had accounted for 564 total receptions from 2010 to 2012. The Packers' receivers and tight ends as a whole had 906 receptions during that time, so those four players accounted for 62 percent of the team's targets. Of the remaining 38 percent, Jordy Nelson accounted for almost half with his 162 receptions. Nelson has always been an exceptional receiver with the ability to be one of the best receivers in the NFL, but he has never been the clear first choice of the offense until this point.
While Nelson is set to draw most of the attention from the opposing defense, Randall Cobb could eclipse Nelson's production.
Despite only playing two seasons, Cobb accounted for 12 percent of the Packers' receptions from 2010 to 2012. He caught just 25 passes as a rookie, before breaking out with 80 receptions during the 2012 season. Even though 80 receptions is a huge tally for any receiver, Cobb's talent suggests that he is yet to come close to his full potential. Those 80 receptions in 2012 only resulted in 954 yards and eight touchdowns. In order to be considered amongst the best in the league at his position, Cobb will need to almost double his yardage totals by eclipsing 1,500, while he will expect to reach double digits in touchdowns.
Even though Cobb's height—5'10" and 192 pounds—willl turn some fantasy owners off, he has similar traits to Wes Welker and will play in what should be a very high-powered offense.
Welker had 778 yards and 10 touchdowns on 73 regular season receptions last year. However, during the two seasons before last year he had at least 118 receptions and over 1,300 yards with the New England Patriots. Cobb has Welker's quickness, a trait that not many in the league share, but he is also being featured in an offense at a much earlier point in his career. Welker somewhat revolutionized how players with his type of skill set are treated in the NFL, but it took him until his fourth and fifth seasons in the NFL to truly establish himself.
At just 24 years of age, Cobb is set to be a key starter for the Packers in 2014.
He would have been a key starter last year, but injury took away 10 regular season games and dramatically affected another. For the first two weeks of the season, Cobb totalled 31 receptions for 433 yards and two touchdowns. He appeared set to explode and be one of the most productive receivers in the NFL. His momentum was stalled by a meeting with the best slot cornerback in the NFL, Leon Hall, in Week 3, before he had another 100+ yard game in the Packers' fourth game of the season. He was injured in the second quarter of the fifth game, after catching four passes for 53 yards up until that point.
When Cobb returned for the final regular season game of the year, he was clearly still hampered by injury. In spite of that, he still caught two touchdown passes including a massive score late on that sent the Packers to the playoffs. Presuming that injury doesn't strike again in 2014, Cobb should be able to put up huge numbers with Aaron Rodgers.
| Targets | Receptions | Yards | Touchdowns | Open Drops | Contested Drops | Contested Catches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 35 | 33 | 484 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
Cobb clearly didn't have problems catching the ball in 2013. His two drops were not easy catches and he was consistently catching the ball away from his body with ease.
Of Cobb's 33 receptions, 13 came against zone coverage for 206 yards and one touchdown. That means that most of his receptions and yards came against man coverage. Cobb had 20 receptions for 278 yards and three touchdowns. Importantly, 10 of Cobb's 20 receptions against man coverage went for at least 15 yards. It's not a surprise that most of Cobb's production comes against man coverage. He has a physical skill set that lends itself to beating man coverage.
Like any receiver of his overall talent, Cobb stands out in different ways on the field, but the most obvious attribute he has is his quickness.
Cobb's quickness makes him very difficult to cover even in tight areas. He has outstanding balance and footwork that allow him to run very precise routes and locate the football before defensive backs. As we can see on this play, Cobb doesn't waste any movement on this double move. He doesn't allow his momentum to pull him too far wide and he doesn't take time to turn back to locate the football. By the time the deep defender arrives to hit him, he has turned his back with the football to protect himself.
Protecting himself is something that Cobb does exceptionally well.
When Cobb was injured in 2013, it was on an unavoidable hit. He was falling out of the air after adjusting to a pass deep down the seam. When it's possible for him to avoid hits, he rarely exposes himself unecessarily. On this play, Cobb is able to spin away from the incoming hit as soon as he caught the ball. This not only speaks to his incredible quickness, but also his awareness.
There are plenty of quick receivers in the NFL, but not all of them get the most out of their quickness. Cobb does that with his awareness and his technique.
In Week 1, Cobb's quickness gave him a massive advantage over the San Francisco 49ers Carlos Rogers. He scored a touchdown against Rogers in man coverage at the goal line.
As the above images show, Cobb's technique is what allows him to get free from Rogers initially. He doesn't wait to set his feet when the ball arrives, instead he begins shuffling his feet to plant them before the ball arrives, while catching the ball with his hands extended away from his body to maintain his balance. As Rogers arrives, he is unable to adjust and change direction quick enough to stop him from reaching the endzone.
One of the main concerns with smaller slot receivers is how they handle press coverage.
The best way for any receiver to beat press coverage is to play to his specific strengths. When you are as big as Anquan Boldin, it's best to try and knock the defensive back away within five yards of the line of scrimmage where he can get aggressive. For Cobb, his strength is his quickness. On the above play, he is able to escape outside of the defensive back before resetting himself in his route to still come free down the field. When defensive backs don't react to his first movement, he has a clean release, but when they do react, it's very unlikely that they will be able to change direction with him working back in the other direction.
Even though the Packers project to have maybe the most balanced offense in the NFL next season, Cobb and Nelson should share a majority of the production from the passing game. Both players are exceptional talents who will likely only be stopped by injury.
Rashad Jennings
Rashad Jennings is the Josh McCown of the running back position this year. McCown is the vested veteran who had no sustainable succes before the 2013 season but now is expected to be the starting quarterback for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in 2014. Jennings is the vested veteran who had no sustainable success before the 2013 season but now is expected to be the starting running back for the New York Giants in 2014.
Unlike McCown, Jennings wasn't reliant on his teammates to produce in 2013 though.
Before averaging 4.5 yards per carry with the Oakland Raiders last season, Jennings had just 224 carries for just 944 yards and 13 touchdowns. That means he averaged a respectable 4.2 yards per carry during his first three seasons on a roster in the NFL with the Jacksonville Jaguars. There are plenty of reasons to be optimistic about Jennings based on his past production, but the sample sizes are all relatively small and he is not young in spite of his lack of experience.
Jennings is 29 years of age.
An age at a position that suggests a decline is about to begin. Of course, Jennings should be fresher than most running backs approaching their thirities because of his lack of usage over the years, but there is still very little historical evidence to support his case as a top producer at the position. Since the turn of the century, 37 running backs have had at least 150 carries at the age of 29 during a season. Those backs averaged just over 4.0 yards per carry, but the top of the list is littered with backs who had proven themselves in previous seasons.
History is against Jennings and he doesn't appear to be in a great situation to debunk the expectations it creates.
Chris Snee was a declining right guard for the Giants who just retired at the start of training camp. While he wasn't the quality player he once was, he was still expected to be a starter for what is a seemingly limited unit. Playing behind a subpar offensive line won't be a major problem for Jennings because he hasn't ever played behind a top 10 unit at the position. However, unlike in Oakland last year, the perception of his ability has changed. Jennings has earned expectations, so he will need to be productive early and often.
If he is not productive early on, the Giants may look to the returning David Wilson and one of Andre Williams, Peyton Hillis or Michael Cox.
Nonetheless, Jennings should get the first shot to be the primary ball carrier for Eli Manning's offense. In spite of history and the threats to his workload, Jennings' skill set does suggest that he can be a heavy-usage runner and a complementary receiver. The first concern with any running back who is moving into a bigger role on a new team is his ability to be disciplined. Tom Coughlin stresses discipline as much as any other coach in the NFL.
Overall Jennings has good vision. He plays with good awareness and finds running lanes to gain good yardage. However, there are a few too many times when he doesn't anticipate the development of the play so he is forced to try and react to to redirect towards a lane too late. Quickness and the ability to move laterally aren't strengths for Jennings. He is at his very best when he is running downhill and he can use his power to break arm tackles. When he is trying to cutback and change running lanes after an initial bad decision, his limitations become apparent.
The most positive aspect of Jennings' vision is his decisiveness. The worst thing a back can do is hesitate himself into paralysis behind the line of scrimmage. Jennings won't wait for a massive hole to develop in front of him, instead he will accelerate quickly to attack the space and break through any potential contact. This will likely be the most appealing aspect of Jennings' ability for the Giants coaching staff.
Last year, the Giants couldn't stay ahead of the down-and-distance. They ranked 30th in the NFL in rush DVOA, a metric that measures efficiency. If Jennings can run consistently between the tackles like his skill set suggests he can, he should stay on the field more than anyone else in New York this season.
In today's NFL, everyone wants a running back who can be effective as a receiver. Jennings is an effective receiving option, but his real value comes in his ability to break off big plays once he gets to the second level. According to Pro Football Focus(Subscription Required), Jennings had seven 15+ yard runs on 163 carries last season. While he isn't an explosive player, he has enough speed to show off his decisive running style and the power to drage defensive backs with him or completely overrun them.
Jennings is your typical volume runner value play in fantasy football. His skill set isn't spectacular and expectations should be tempered because of his age, but the potential for one season of big production is there.
Jay Cutler
I recently watched every throw of Jay Cutler's 2013 season. Cutler is a fascinating player with an abundance of talent. He played very well in 2013 so it was no real surprise that the Bears quickly signed him to a huge contract during the offseason. The question we must ask about Cutler last year is why Josh McCown was able to have so much success in his place.
McCown is clearly less talented than Cutler and he didn't perform better than his counterpart when he was on the field. Part of his production came down to poor play from opposing defenses, but the primary difference was Alshon Jeffery.
When McCown was in the lineup, Jeffery was much more engaged. He played with a greater intensity as he attacked the ball early and outmuscled defensive backs for positioning with ease. He wasn't passively running routes and getting in position, he appeared to understand that he needed to perform better because the Bears were missing an integral part of their offense. That is something to be admired, but the focus didn't seem to be there when Cutler was on the field.
Each of Jeffery's drops last year came on passes from Cutler. Unlike Greg Jennings and Christian Ponder, who I wrote about on FootballGuys last week, this wasn't reflective of poor quarterback play. Cutler's passes were well placed, well timed and not thrown with too much velocity. Three of Jeffery's five drops were certain touchdowns, while one was a massive play late in the fourth quarter of their Week 17 matchup that could have sent them to the playoffs.
It's possible that Jeffery is perturbed by Cutler's longstanding relationship with Brandon Marshall, but either way, he needs to be more consistent with his play on a week-to-week basis if he wants to be considered on the same level as the best receivers in the NFL.
One other notable aspect of Cutler's season last year was his ability to throw to receivers at the goal line. Cutler has a phenomenal range of throws that he can use to find his receivers outside the numbers. He understands how to place and time his backshoulder throws or fade routes to give his receivers the best possible chance to win the ball. In fact, out of all the quarterbacks in the NFL, I've never seen a more impressive passer in this area.
With Jeffery, Marshall and Martellus Bennett providing matchup problems at the goal line, Cutler's touchdown numbers should receive a significant boost if he plays 16 games.