Caleb Williams: The Hero's Journey

Here lies Caleb Williams

Williams was supposed to be the Next Great One. Fantasy football managers waited with bated breath. The Bears were thought to have pulled off one of the greatest heists in NFL history, turning Bryce Young into Caleb Williams and half a starting lineup. Wrong. In just one year, media outlets like PFF have declared Williams' ceiling to be Jordan Love and his floor to be a bust. 

Williams is a modern-day Greek tragedy. 

The stats paint the picture of Williams' hopelessness. His 40.3% success rate was only above Bryce Young, Will Levis, and Anthony Richardson Sr. His 68 sacks led the league by 16. His net yards gained per pass attempt of 4.88 was dead last among qualifiers. His 110 bad throws led the league. 

Hopeless. 

We have seen 17 games of Williams. What more would we need to call the time of death? Sure, the Bears fired offensive coordinator Shane Waldron nine games into the season and head coach Matt Eberflus after 12 games. Excuses. Williams was set up to succeed with D.J. Moore, Rome Odunze, and Keenan Allen. Few number one picks have seen such a situation, with CBS and other outlets going so far as to say Williams had the best situation for a number one pick ever. 

He failed.

But we should be fair. Many still consider Williams a viable fantasy asset, with an average draft position of QB13. Williams has worked hard to earn his opportunity. It would only be fair to give his career a proper autopsy. Is redemption even possible? Should fantasy managers move on? What went wrong?

The Hero's Journey

Joseph Campbell described The Hero's Journey:

Williams sits in the abyss, firmly in the unknown portion of his journey. Where does his path go from here?

The Curse of Expectations

Williams was a "generational prospect." Too big to fail. The answer to the Bears' long-time quarterback woes. Destined to be the first player in franchise history to throw for 4,000 yards. Lisan al Gaib. The Prince That Was Promised. The Boy Who Lived. Heir of Isildur. Chosen One. 

Sorry for underselling the expectations placed upon Williams. 

It is bad enough that Williams failed to meet expectations. He doubled down. Jayden Daniels was better than him. By a lot. And Drake Maye. And Bo Nix. Hypothetically, J.J. McCarthy probably was, too. And Michael Penix Jr. surely would have calmed his 58% completion and 1-to-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio. 

There has to be some historical context to explain this failure. 

That 40.3% success rate. Only 42 rookies with 197 pass attempts have posted a worse success rate. Only 25 of those rookies went in the first round. Only six of those players went number one overall. Of that group, only Matthew Stafford, Jared Goff, and Eli Manning have played in the Super Bowl. Of the group who went in the first round, only Josh Allen and Donovan McNabb would join the previous three as having successful careers. 

Yikes.

The 68 sacks. Only David Carr has been sacked more, with seasons of 76 and 68. 

An adjusted net yards/pass attempts of 5.09 that ranked 31st. There have only been fifty rookies in history to post a worst number. Only 34 of those rookies went in the first round. Only ten of those players went number one overall. The trio of Stafford, Goff, and Manning makes the list. Eli is joined by his brother Peyton as the only ones to play in the Super Bowl. Only Trevor Lawrence and Bryce Young join Williams as players to accomplish this dubious feat over the last four seasons. 

Surprisingly, Williams only threw six interceptions. Only 12 quarterbacks had 197 or more attempts with six or fewer interceptions. Only Joe Burrow, C.J. Stroud, Robert Griffin III, and Tua Tagovailoa joined Williams as first-round picks on the list. Only Burrow has played in the Super Bowl. 

Williams has a steep hill to climb if he hopes to join the ranks of Peyton and Eli Manning, Matthew Stafford, Jared Goff, Josh Allen, and Donovan McNabb.

On the bright side, Williams has help.