Nico Collins

The Texans have multiple viable alternatives in the receiving corps to Nico Collins. For Collins, the concern lies in volume. His target totals already lag behind those of elite receivers, and without the boost of a rushing touchdown, his production would have settled in the mid-WR2 range. That margin is thin, especially with competition for targets. There's also a longer-term angle to consider: Collins signed a three-year extension just last season, which is relatively short compared to deals typically given to receivers in his age bracket. If the Texans' younger receivers carve out larger roles, Collins could see a notable dip in market value as early as the second year of that contract.

Was 3 PPR PPG better with Davis Mills than he was with CJ Stroud last season. Tank Dell's return could help Stroud calm down, but Dell and Collins were co #1 targets in Dell's rookie year before he got hurt.

Collins will be the primary vertical threat for C.J. Stroud in a dangerous Houston offense, maintaining top-8 wide receiver upside even with David Montgomery arriving to balance out the ground game. If Stroud takes another step forward, Collins could finish with elite production. 

I love Collins' game. We need Collins to play a 16-17 games. He hasn't done this yet. He's missed at least three games for 60 percent of his seasons. 

If he can become more available, he's a fantasy WR1.  I have him at 15 games, which places him just inside fantasy WR territory in larger formats and really one more quality game away from top-12 value. 

If you value Collins as a fantasy WR1, I don't begrude you at all. I just can't give him a full 17-game season based on his track record. 

Consistent receiver, but also misses games. Unlikely to finish in the Top 12 for the season, but there will be weeks when he looks like he belongs there. Needs to see an uptick in TDs and that is going to require better play from Stroud.