Welcome to the weekly Fantasy Notebook, the must-stop spot for keeping your finger on the pulse of Fantasy Nation. NFL news and developments drive fantasy values. The Notebook is here to keep you in the loop on all of it throughout the season -- and into the offseason.
Is There Nothing We Can Count On?
I know. I've been harping on this all year. But it bears repeating since we get confirmation of it in real time on a weekly basis:
We play a game based on a game built on variance and volatility.
Unexpected outcomes aren't a bug for the NFL; they're a feature.
For us, that means the best decisions don't always yield the best results. Still, making the best decisions possible gives you the best chances for success. So keep grinding away and play hunches when you feel strongly about players. But being the best-informed manager in your league is where you'll gain an edge.
And we need all of those we can get this year.
The Answer Is Simple
Well, the process is simple. Keep grinding. Gain the best understanding you can when developments arise. Divorce emotion from your process and make logical choices based on information at hand.
This week, the process starts here. Let's start sifting through the debris . . .
Packers Gone Wild
Wide receivers Matthew Golden and Christian Watson combined for 17 catches, 335 yards, and two touchdowns in the Packers' 45-27 win in New England.
Golden had 10 catches for 164 yards, and Watson had seven for 171, a week after leaving in an ambulance. It's the first time two Packers receivers have each topped 150 yards with a TD in the same game.
Cornerback Christian Gonzalez and the Patriots' defense couldn't contain Green Bay, as Jordan Love, Golden, and Christian Watson all exceeded 30 fantasy points.
Love scored 34.2 fantasy points for a QB2 overall finish as he carved up the Patriots to the tune of 372 yards, three touchdown passes, one rushing TD, and no interceptions -- and he didn't even have to play the final nine minutes of the game.
He was perfect against the blitz, and his deep throws were once again on target. He racked up 235 yards and a score on deep throws (at least 20 yards downfield).
It was his second game of the season with at least six completions on throws of 20-plus air yards. The rest of the NFL has zero, according to ESPN Research.
As ESPN.com's Rob Demovsky understated, "The Packers' passing game is humming," something you want to see ahead of their toughest matchup of the year in Week 10 against the Vikings.
Can This Offense Support Two WR1s?
Well, Golden was WR3 against the Patriots. Watson was WR5. So yes, on any given Sunday, both are capable of delivering WR1 production even on weeks the other does the same.
What about over the course of the entire season?
You might not be surprised to learn they've done exactly that.
Through the first nine games, Watson is WR3 overall, averaging 19.9 points per game. Golden is WR5, averaging 18 points per game.
Those numbers come as the team's elite, high-flying passing offense heavily overshadows a struggling and underperforming rushing attack. The ground game has been hindered by inconsistent run-blocking on the offensive line and limited availability for Josh Jacobs, who will miss the next three weeks with a fractured finger.
In other words, fantasy managers should expect continued high-end totals from Watson and Golden. That includes this week against a tough Minnesota defense, with both players projected to finish inside the top 10 at the position -- Golden is our WR6, Watson our WR8.
Vanished Into Thin Air
After Mike Washington Jr. out-snapped Ashton Jeanty and handled 25 of the 27 running back carries in a Week 8 win over the Jets, the Raiders' running back room was flipped back to Jeanty in Sunday's loss to the 49ers.
Both running backs received six carries, but Jeanty out-snapped Washington 32-17.
In what Athlon Sports' Tyler Bischoff characterized as "a rare occurrence," Jeanty was the more effective back as well. He ran for 25 yards on his six touches, while Washington was stuffed for minus-3 yards on six carries.
Plus, Jeanty added five catches on the day, while Washington was not targeted. However, Jeanty's five receptions went for minus-5 yards.
He's the third player this season with five or more targets and zero or fewer receiving yards.
The overall production out of the running backs is the real issue for the Raiders. It hasn't mattered who leads the backfield; Las Vegas can't run the ball. That was expected coming into Week 9 because the 49ers have one of the best run defenses in the NFL.
Jeanty had a season-low 7.0 points in Sunday's loss to the 49ers.
Jeanty has gone five straight games without topping 30 rushing yards. He has been one of the least efficient backs since entering the NFL last season. His production has not warranted a lead role in any NFL backfield.
Against the Niners, the Raiders were trailing by multiple scores for the majority of this game, meaning there weren't many chances to lean on the run, as evidenced by the 12 total carries between Jeanty and Washington.
Is This the New Normal?
As ESPN.com's Matt Bowen reported, this Raiders offense was sloppy, turning the ball over five times, which led to negative game flow. With the Seattle defense up next -- and with rookie Fernando Mendoza starting at quarterback after Kirk Cousins was traded to the Vikings -- Jeanty will continue to have a major role.
A Raiders defense that allows 28.8 points per game -- the second most in the NFL -- means Mendoza is going to be throwing a lot, and Jeanty will benefit.
Washington is not trusted in passing situations. Las Vegas is more willing to use third-string running back Dylan Laube on passing downs than Washington.
Other positive signs?
In Week 8, Jeanty had a 37 percent snap share and 6.5 percent rush share. In Week 9, his snap share was 66 percent, and his rush share was 40 percent.
Jeanty's route share also went from 48 percent last week to 69 percent in this one.
Meanwhile, as Late-Round Fantasy's JJ Zachariason pointed out, over the last two weeks, Washington has 31 carries for 80 yards on the ground. As a result, he now has a lower success rate than Jeanty on the season.
So all signs still point to Jeanty getting the workload necessary to reach his Footballguys RB17 projection.
Gaining Momentum in Houston
On a week in which Love and Joe Burrow (more on Burrow and the Bengals below) stole the spotlight, don't forget about Houston's C.J. Stroud.
Stroud threw for 384 yards and five TDs in the Texans' 44-22 win over the Chargers after waking up in Los Angeles with flu-like symptoms. It was a remarkable performance that deserves more attention than it received.
Kayshon Boutte led all receivers with 125 receiving yards on four catches, Tank Dell finished with 105 yards (his fifth career 100-yard receiving game), and Xavier Hutchinson also caught the opening TD -- his second straight week with a score.
Houston ended the game with nearly 500 yards of offense, sending a signal to the rest of the league that its QB is making a serious push for MVP.
As CBSSports.com's Zachary Pereles suggested, lest you think "Oh, it's just the Chargers," they've actually been decent on defense this year. This was just Stroud putting on a clinic. He's been doing the same all year.
The Texans' 3-5 record is mostly due to a surprisingly up-and-down defense and major struggles on the ground. Pereles added that DeMeco Ryans hasn't been great situationally, either.
Even if Houston doesn't make the playoffs, Stroud's play is huge for Stroud himself -- he entered the year without an extension on his rookie deal -- and for Houston, which can feel much better about handing Stroud said extension.
How Should Fantasy Investors Feel?
The direct answer to that question is another question: Can the Texans sustain the offensive output?
According to ESPN.com's DJ Bien-Aime, there's no reason to think otherwise.
When the Texans' offense is healthy, the unit is fully capable of going over the 30-point mark, as Sunday marked the fourth time in eight games that Houston has done so. Offensive coordinator Nick Caley has put more responsibility on Stroud's plate, and he has delivered.
The run game wasn't great against the Chargers (3.7 yards per carry), though running back Woody Marks totaled a season-high 70 rushing yards.
Meanwhile, Stroud heads into Week 10 as QB7 despite playing only eight games. His 20.8 points per game rank fourth at the position.
According to ESPN.com's Tristan Cockcroft, Stroud's improved performance on deep throws is the reason he's sitting in QB1 territory.
Stroud's remaining schedule is one of the tougher ones -- fifth worst among quarterbacks -- but he's throwing with a level of accuracy and upside that makes him an intriguing option for managers weak at the position.
It helps that he has a group of wideouts that seems to improve weekly, with Nico Collins, Dell, Boutte, Marvin Harrison Jr., and Hutchinson all capable of making big plays.
Superstars Suddenly Silenced
Seattle's offense left plenty to be desired but managed to finish with 295 yards in Sunday's 17-3 win over the Cardinals.
The unit pieced together two touchdown drives that ended with tight end AJ Barner reaching the end zone. Seattle accomplished this with backup Drew Lock playing in place of Sam Darnold. Lock was dealing with his own elbow injury and strained an oblique during the game.
Still, the Seahawks generated enough offense to build a sufficient lead for the defense to protect for the remainder of the game.
Perhaps most importantly, the Seahawks won a game without receiving a massive contribution from Jaxon Smith-Njigba, who didn't need to become the game-breaking weapon he's been in most of Seattle's triumphs this season.
While it was absolutely a big deal for Seattle, it was an even bigger deal for fantasy investors who were starting to view Smith-Njigba as matchup- and quarterback-proof.
Has That Really Changed?
No.
Smith-Njigba's season-low 12.1 fantasy points will be an outlier when we look back on it.
Even with that low-end fantasy production, JSN caught seven of 10 targets. The problem? He only had 51 yards receiving and didn't find the end zone.
We all need to realize there will be weeks like this, even for the best players.
Don't believe me?
Just ask Lions running back Jahmyr Gibbs.
According to Cockcroft, the Dolphins' defense brought its A-game in Week 9, limiting the Lions to 19 total points and Gibbs to a season-low 13.4 fantasy points.
Gibbs was stuffed at the line six times on his 20 rushing attempts, had 18 fewer rushing yards than expected (per Next Gen Stats), and was held without a catch for the first time since Week 4 of 2024.
As Cockcroft summed up: "It's not a performance that should be expected often, as Gibbs remains the class of the running back position."
A bounce-back seems likely for Gibbs against the Patriots in Munich on Sunday.
And Smith-Njigba?
With Darnold unlikely to play against the Raiders and Lock now dealing with the oblique injury, No. 3 quarterback Jalen Milroe could potentially get the start for Seattle.
You're not benching Smith-Njigba, but playing with his team's QB3 obviously wouldn't be ideal.