Talent and fantasy football success dance a complicated tango that involves a third partner—opportunity.
After all, you might be the most talented running back in your division, but you won’t be scoring many fantasy points on the bench. There is a reason why guys like Chris Johnson and Fred Jackson finished in the top 12 in fantasy scoring last season despite declining play, after all.
Of course, the elite players tend to get a ton of opportunity, which is why they belong in the top tier of fantasy rankings. Jamaal Charles, Matt Forte, LeSean McCoy and Adrian Peterson amass a veritable lion's share of work at the running back position for their respective teams to go along with the supreme talent they possess.
What does the landscape look like when we quantify just how much opportunity players get to score fantasy points, however? Interesting things come to light when mining for data nuggets.
The data below is defined as the following:
- TmAtt% = the percentage of a team's rushing attempts that player received
- TD% = the touchdown rate for that player based on touchdowns per rushing attempt
- TmTgt% = the percentage of a team's passing targets that player received
- TmOpp% = the percentage of a team's rushing attempts and targets combined that player received
- PPO = fantasy points per opportunity
- Vol/Avg = the number of plays the player's team ran versus the league average
- X%/16 = X statistic prorated over 16 games
With all that in mind, let's dive in and take a look at the data for a considerable chunk of this year's fantasy-relevant running backs. The list isn't comprehensive lest this turn into a novella, but it's an interesting peek into big fantasy success factors and how they might affect a player in 2014.
This kind of data is going to be the basis of a weekly fantasy stock watch during the regular season, which will include wide receivers and tight ends.
The Elite
| TmAtt% | TD% | TmTgt% | TmOpp% | PPO | TmOpp%/16 | TmAtt%/16 | Tgt%/16 | TmFP%/16 | Vol/Avg |
| 58.6% | 4.6% | 19.0% | 35.3% | 1.05 | 37.6% | 62.5% | 20.3% | 37.1% | -1.1% |
The king of PPR is back for more.
Jamaal Charles was targeted whopping 104 times in 15 games last season, by far the most in the league. The massive target count got Charles all the way to 37.6 percent of Kansas City’s fantasy scoring opportunities over 16 games, a big reason why he led the league in fantasy scoring last season. The fact his 104 targets accounted for 19 percent of his team's total passing attempts is astounding for a running back.
He should sit near the top of the heap again this season by virtue of his massive opporunity despite the fact his offensive line lost several key contributors from a year ago. He will be a PPR stud once more as long as quarterback Alex Smith is dumping the ball to him six or seven times a game.
| TmAtt% | TD% | TmTgt% | TmOpp% | PPO | TmOpp%/16 | TmAtt%/16 | Tgt%/16 | TmFP%/16 | Vol/Avg |
| 71.3% | 3.1% | 16.4% | 37.8% | 0.89 | 37.8% | 71.3% | 16.4% | 27.6% | -2.7% |
Matt Forte was always a fantasy tease. That is, of course, until Marc Trestman came to town.
The Chicago Bears finally took full advantage of the talent they possessed at running back last season, giving Forte a league-leading 37.8 percent of all fantasy opportunities in that offense. Forte was third in standard and second in PPR scoring last season despite the perceived threat from goal line back Michael Bush.
The plodding goal line threat is gone, and there is even less to threaten Forte’s touch count behind him.
| TmAtt% | TD% | TmTgt% | TmOpp% | PPO | TmOpp%/16 | TmAtt%/16 | Tgt%/16 | TmFP%/16 | Vol/Avg |
| 62.8% | 2.9% | 12.6% | 35.9% | 0.88 | 35.9% | 62.8% | 12.6% | 26.3% | 1.3% |
There appears to be some trepidation in selecting LeSean McCoy at the top of fantasy drafts lately. He has been dogged by little injuries throughout the preseason, and Darren Sproles is out to steal his touches.
Never fear, though—McCoy’s role isn’t in any real jeopardy. The talented back should still see a massive percentage of his team's fantasy opportunities, and he is one of those rare home run threats from anywhere on the field.
| TmAtt% | TD% | TmTgt% | TmOpp% | PPO | TmOpp%/16 | TmAtt%/16 | Tgt%/16 | TmFP%/16 | Vol/Avg |
| 66.0% | 3.6% | 7.3% | 31.5% | 0.75 | 36.0% | 75.4% | 8.4% | 24.9% | -2.7% |
He was never going to come close to repeating his 2012 supernova, but Adrian Peterson had a fine year for fantasy owners in 2013 nonetheless. He wound up seventh in fantasy scoring despite missing two games, and he heads into 2014 with far lower expectations.
Those expectations may have fallen, but he should still post a top-flight fantasy season if he can stay healthy all year long. Peterson’s usage was among the highest in the league when prorated over 16 games.
The Steady
Le’Veon Bell
| TmAtt% | TD% | TmTgt% | TmOpp% | PPO | TmOpp%/16 | TmAtt%/16 | Tgt%/16 | TmFP%/16 | Vol/Avg |
| 61.9% | 3.3% | 11.3% | 30.3% | 0.71 | 37.3% | 76.2% | 13.9% | 24.2% | -1.7% |
There has been some chatter about LeGarrette Blount taking some goal line opportunity away from Le’Veon Bell this season. Then there is the whole arrest debacle of recent legend.
Blount and Bell may be facing future league discipline, but it’s unlikely they miss time because of the arrest anytime soon. That’s good for Bell in particular, given he is the starting running back and all.
Bell’s usage rate was spectacular last season after he came back from preseason injury. Prorated to 16 games, Bell nabbed 37.3 percent of all fantasy opportunities in Pittsburgh. That is nearly as high as Charles and Forte, who were at the top of the fantasy heap.
That is not to say Bell will challenge to lead the league in fantasy scoring—after all, he didn’t have a back like Blount to push for playing time behind him last season—but Bell is inexplicably eschewed early in fantasy drafts. He should see the majority of the workload, including as a pass-catcher.
| TmAtt% | TD% | TmTgt% | TmOpp% | PPO | TmOpp%/16 | TmAtt%/16 | Tgt%/16 | TmFP%/16 | Vol/Avg |
| 59.1% | 4.0% | 10.5% | 35.5% | 0.80 | 35.5% | 59.1% | 10.5% | 26.8% | -6.5% |
Much has been made of Marshawn Lynch’s offseason, to the point where his ADP has taken an unnecessary tumble. Lynch can be had in the second round of many drafts, which is a relative bargain at this stage.
Lynch’s tires may be on the verge of balding, but there is no sign that the Seahawks will be slowing down his usage this season. He was in on 35.5 percent of Seattle’s fantasy scoring opportunities last season, and Robert Turbin doesn’t figure to cut into that figure too much in 2014. There is certainly concern based on Lynch’s workload last season, but that is being baked into his ADP.
| TmAtt% | TD% | TmTgt% | TmOpp% | PPO | TmOpp%/16 | TmAtt%/16 | Tgt%/16 | TmFP%/16 | Vol/Avg |
| 50.1% | 1.8% | 12.6% | 27.5% | 0.82 | 31.4% | 57.3% | 14.4% | 22.9% | 5.9% |
For all the talk about how Joique Bell is going to eat into Reggie Bush’s playing time—and decrease his fantasy value in the process—the numbers sure don’t seem to think so. Bush was in on a healthy 31.4 percent of his team’s fantasy opportunities last season when prorated to 16 games. He has looked excellent during the preseason, and there is little reason to believe the Lions won’t try to maximize what they can get out of the still-dynamic former Heisman winner/loser.
| TmAtt% | TD% | TmTgt% | TmOpp% | PPO | TmOpp%/16 | TmAtt%/16 | Tgt%/16 | TmFP%/16 | Vol/Avg |
| 58.7% | 2.8% | 6.9% | 29.4% | 0.65 | 36.2% | 72.2% | 8.5% | 23.8% | -7.0% |
It was smooth sailing for Zac Stacy and his fantasy owners until Benny Cunningham inexplicably got the start in the team’s third preseason game, also known for being the “dress rehearsal” for the regular season. Little explanation was given regarding the move, though head coach Jeff Fisher did downplay the fact after the game.
Stacy should be the starter come Week 1, and with that should come plenty of opportunity to score fantasy points. He was among the league leaders in fantasy opportunities at 36.2 percent when prorated over 16 games. That’s because he took the job and ran with it after disappointment and injury from Isaiah Pead, Daryl Richardson and Cunningham last season.
Of course, Fisher has been notoriously capricious when it comes to running back loyalty throughout his head coaching career. If your name isn’t Eddie George or Chris Johnson, you are guaranteed nothing under Fisher.
Still, Stacy figures to see a heavy workload provided he produces. Even if he is not the most efficient back—he averaged just 3.9 yards per carry—opportunity goes a long way in the fantasy realm.
The Oddballs
| TmAtt% | TD% | TmTgt% | TmOpp% | PPO | TmOpp%/16 | TmAtt%/16 | Tgt%/16 | TmFP%/16 | Vol/Avg |
| 9.4% | 2.3% | 11.0% | 9.9% | 1.19 | 19.9% | 18.7% | 22.0% | 21.7% | 9.4% |
Based on Vereen’s prorated usage last season and the Patriots offensive playcalling tendencies over the past three seasons, Vereen is due for about 94 receptions on 138 targets if he can play 16 games.
Of course, it’s not that simple.
Verene was utilized heavily in the passing game last season. You would think he was a focal point when Rob Gronkowski was out, but the opposite was true—Vereen nearly doubled his target average when Gronk was healthy. The talented tight end is targeting a Week 1 return, and hopefully he will stay healthy this season.
This all must be taken with a grain of salt, however. We are operating with a relatively limited sample size of eight games from 2013 thanks to Vereen's own injury.
Still, it looks like Vereen should be on track to lead the team in fantasy opportunity percentage at his position. Speculation sprung up this week that the Patriots might cut Stevan Ridley—an unlikely scenario, but still worrisome for his owners from a fantasy perspective. If Ridley’s role is diminished, Vereen figures to be the biggest beneficiary, even if he is to be primarily a pass catcher.
He may not crack 100 targets, but approaching that number will mean big things for Vereen in PPR leagues if he can stay healthy.
| TmAtt% | TD% | TmTgt% | TmOpp% | PPO | TmOpp%/16 | TmAtt%/16 | Tgt%/16 | TmFP%/16 | Vol/Avg |
| 37.9% | 4.3% | 12.5% | 24.4% | 0.86 | 24.4% | 37.9% | 12.5% | 23.3% | 7.2% |
Dost my eyes deceive me? Fred Jackson was the 11th-best fantasy back in 2013?
That is indeed the case, largely due to injury and ineffectiveness on the part of his counterpart, C.J. Spiller.
It is a bit surprising to see that Jackson actually saw more fantasy opportunities than C.J. Spiller did when prorating the latter’s statistics over 16 games. That is a testament to said injury and ineffectiveness on the latter’s part, but Jackson’s quiet productiveness made the Bills come back for more.
Jackson is 33, a modern day Methuselah as running backs go. He may not be spry, but the veteran could easily reprise his role as fantasy foil in that Bills backfield.
| TmAtt% | TD% | TmTgt% | TmOpp% | PPO | TmOpp%/16 | TmAtt%/16 | Tgt%/16 | TmFP%/16 | Vol/Avg |
| 37.3% | 4.8% | 10.9% | 21.3% | 0.94 | 21.3% | 37.3% | 10.9% | 17.9% | 5.9% |
Joique Bell is an interesting study here. He wound up with the 14th-best fantasy output at running back last season despite spending most of it in a timeshare with Reggie Bush. He did it despite
In many ways, Bell’s opportunity-to-production ratio looks like Andre Ellington’s. Unfortunately for Bell and his fantasy owners, there is plenty of competition for touches in that backfield. The aforementioned Bush got significantly more action when he was healthy, and that doesn’t figure to change too much for the 2014 season. Of course, that is speculation—Bell could win himself a bigger role—but nothing out of Detroit has indicated that Bush’s role will be diminished.
Relatively Unknown Commodities
| TmAtt% | TD% | TmTgt% | TmOpp% | PPO | TmOpp%/16 | TmAtt%/16 | Tgt%/16 | TmFP%/16 | Vol/Avg |
| 25.8% | 3.4% | 4.0% | 12.6% | 0.78 | 13.5% | 27.5% | 4.3% | 7.7% | 11.1% |
Montee Ball gets the starting gig now that Knowshon Moreno is gone, and few running backs are in better situations. The second-year back out of Wisconsin plays in an offense that ran 11.1 percent more plays than the league average last season, and the Broncos shouldn’t see much of a dropoff in that department so long as Peyton Manning is healthy.
| TmAtt% | TD% | TmTgt% | TmOpp% | PPO | TmOpp%/16 | TmAtt%/16 | Tgt%/16 | TmFP%/16 | Vol/Avg |
| 27.7% | 2.6% | 9.9% | 16.8% | 0.95 | 17.9% | 29.6% | 10.6% | 15.8% | -0.4% |
Based on what we did see out of him as a rookie, we know what Andre Ellington’s capabilities. The question is whether he can deliver with an expanded role.
Ellington was 26th in fantasy scoring at running back last season despite his limited use. In an attempt to keep the rookie fresh, head coach Bruce Arians had him split time with Rashard Mendenhall, who looked like a lethargic mannequin at times. Ellington was far more efficient, averaging 5.5 yards per carry to Mendenhall's 3.2.
That’s what got him close to RB2 territory despite the fact he only got 17.9 percent of Arizona’s fantasy opportunities as a rookie. Despite less playing time, Ellington outscored Mendenhall—the latter garnered 24.6 percent of those opportunities, and much of that is now going to shift to Ellington.
He may not retain that efficiency, but Ellington could come close to doubling his opportunity percentage this season with Mendenhall out of the picture.
| TmAtt% | TD% | TmTgt% | TmOpp% | PPO | TmOpp%/16 | TmAtt%/16 | Tgt%/16 | TmFP%/16 | Vol/Avg |
| 35.3% | 2.9% | 12.1% | 22.0% | 0.93 | 22.0% | 35.3% | 12.1% | 18.5% | 5.4% |
Like Ellington, Bernard is a productive back moving from a lesser role to a primary one in 2014. Unlike Ellington, however, Bernard must still contend with would-be usurpers of playing time in Jeremy Hill and BenJarvus Green-Ellis.
Bernard was a bit more involved in Cincinnati’s offense as a rookie than Ellington was last season, garnering 22 percent of his team’s fantasy scoring opportunity. That number is likely to approach or exceed 30 percent this season, making Bernard a valuable commodity in the fantasy realm. Pay little mind to his underwhelming preseason—his rookie year was far more indicative, particularly as a pass-catcher.
OLD FACES, NEW TEAMS
| TmAtt% | TD% | TmTgt% | TmOpp% | PPO | TmOpp%/16 | TmAtt%/16 | Tgt%/16 | TmFP%/16 | Vol/Avg |
| 52.5% | 4.1% | 11.0% | 27.3% | 0.94 | 27.3% | 52.5% | 11.0% | 18.7% | 11.1% |
One of the most intriguing fantasy outputs at running back last season came out of Denver, where Knowshon Moreno rose from the mostly dead after a visit to Miracle Max, apparently.
The reason for Moreno’s renaissance? Touches in a Peyton Manning-led offense, of course.
Moreno didn’t see nearly as much of his team’s fantasy opportunities as some of his peers atop Mount Fantasy, however. His opportunity percentage of 27.3 was good for 16th among the top 40 running backs in the league.
It will be interesting to see if Moreno hits that mark again in Miami, where he will be competing with Lamar Miller for playing time. He got off to a rocky start with the Dolphins, showing up out of shape and requiring surgery to clean up his knee. He only recently returned, but he looked like the complete back Miami bargained for when the team signed him to a one-year deal.
Moreno shouldn't be touted as a top fantasy option, but he should win a significant share of fantasy opportunities with the Dolphins.
| TmAtt% | TD% | TmTgt% | TmOpp% | PPO | TmOpp%/16 | TmAtt%/16 | Tgt%/16 | TmFP%/16 | Vol/Avg |
| 37.5% | 3.7% | 9.1% | 21.1% | 0.83 | 22.5% | 40.0% | 9.7% | 18.5% | -3.9% |
Rashad Jennings is quite the intriguing case. His usage in years past all but goes out the window with the New York Giants now that he is the starter heading into the season.
Jennings faces a challenge for playing time from rookie Andre Williams, the big back who figures to be a big part of short-yardage situations that include those inside the five yard line. Williams can't catch, however, which gives Jennings a massive advantage when it comes to overall opportunity.
He may not be dynamic like LeSean McCoy or a demi-god like Adrian Peterson, but Jennings will be a big-time fantasy commodity you can draft at at discount if he can stay healthy.
| TmAtt% | TD% | TmTgt% | TmOpp% | PPO | TmOpp%/16 | TmAtt%/16 | Tgt%/16 | TmFP%/16 | Vol/Avg |
| 43.7% | 2.2% | 7.7% | 21.1% | 0.65 | 24.1% | 50.0% | 8.8% | 16.0% | 4.6% |
Like with Jennings, Ben Tate’s usage in years past is pretty much irrelevant when it comes to his role with the Cleveland Browns.
| TmAtt% | TD% | TmTgt% | TmOpp% | PPO | TmOpp%/16 | TmAtt%/16 | Tgt%/16 | TmFP%/16 | Vol/Avg |
| 62.2% | 2.1% | 10.1% | 28.9% | 0.63 | 30.8% | 66.3% | 10.8% | 20.8% | -2.0% |
The world is no longer Maurice Jones-Drew’s oyster. He is, after all, sharing the backfield with Darren McFadden in Oakland after years of being the lead horse in Jacksonville. Even then, his share of the fantasy pie decreased last season—he still had a healthy 30.8 percent of fantasy opportunities over 16 games, but that is significantly lower than the top guys.
It will be interesting to see where he falls this year with McFadden dogging him for playing time. Jones-Drew has looked spry this preseason, averaging 6.1 yards per carry including a nifty 40-yard touchdown run. Despite his advanced age—relative to his position, of course—MJD seems to be the best running back Oakland has. As such, he is well worth a selection as your fourth or fifth running back.
The Overvalued
Mark Ingram
| TmAtt% | TD% | TmTgt% | TmOpp% | PPO | TmOpp%/16 | TmAtt%/16 | Tgt%/16 | TmFP%/16 | Vol/Avg |
| 19.9% | 1.3% | 1.7% | 8.2% | 0.66 | 12.0% | 29.0% | 2.5% | 6.2% | 3.7% |
Perhaps the heightened expectations for Mark Ingram after his spectacular preseason are justified. But based on past usage, buyer beware!
Ingram got just 12 percent of his team’s fantasy opportunities last season while teammate Pierre Thomas received 21.4 percent. The good news for Ingram is that Darren Sproles—who was at 14 percent last season—is no longer with the team. The bad news is that most of Sproles’ opportunities came in the passing game, where Ingram has little value.
| TmAtt% | TD% | TmTgt% | TmOpp% | PPO | TmOpp%/16 | TmAtt%/16 | Tgt%/16 | TmFP%/16 | Vol/Avg |
| 13.6% | 3.8% | 13.7% | 13.2% | 1.25 | 14.0% | 14.5% | 14.6% | 13.9% | 3.7% |
Speaking of Sproles, the diminutive back and his fantasy owners are in for a rude awakening this season. The Eagles offense might be pretty good, but his role is going to be diminished behind LeSean McCoy relative to what it was in New Orleans. He is still being drafted as the 35th running back off the board—much higher when we exclude expert rankings and MFL leagues—which is much too high for a guy who might
| TmAtt% | TD% | TmTgt% | TmOpp% | PPO | TmOpp%/16 | TmAtt%/16 | Tgt%/16 | TmFP%/16 | Vol/Avg |
| 58.6% | 2.1% | 6.1% | 30.0% | 0.67 | 30.0% | 58.6% | 6.1% | 17.2% | 1.9% |
The problem with Mathews isn’t efficiency or output when he is on the field, it’s the mere fact that he might be splitting time three ways this fall.
Matthews garnered a healthy 30 percent of San Diego’s fantasy opportunities last season, and he finished strong to boot. That has led many to rate him highly, and he is being drafted as the 18th back off the board.
The problem? Donald Brown, to whom the Chargers gave one of the richest contracts a running back signed this past offseason.
Brown has been rotating into games with the first team this preseason, a portent of fantasy disaster for Mathews in that backfield. Danny Woodhead is also in the mix, already the team’s third-down back and preferred pass-catching option out of the backfield.
It wouldn’t be surprising to see Mathews’ opportunity percentage sink considerably this season. He would need to make up for that with a spike in efficiency or, at the very least, touchdown rate.