Reading the Defense: Defensive Line Tiers (Early Camp Update)

Jene Bramel's Reading the Defense: Defensive Line Tiers (Early Camp Update) Jene Bramel Published 08/02/2014

WHY TIERS?

Rank lists and cheatsheets can be deceiving when they're presented without commentary. Our rankings have been vastly improved by adding staffer comments, but it can be hard to see the all-important context in the consensus rankings and sheets. It's critical to know where a significant drop-off in fantasy value occurs. A simple rank list can't tell you if the DL4 is closer in value to the DL10 than the DL3. A cheatsheet can't tell you if the ranker feels the LB10 is a boom-bust play with LB2 upside and LB40 downside while the LB11 has a much narrower range of expectation.

That's where tiers are helpful.

Using tiers -- with or without commentary -- allows you to lump and split players in context. Using tiers can help keep you on the right side of draft runs. Seeing that you have five linebackers on your board might prompt you to take a player at another position. Noting that there's only one wide receiver left before a major drop in value will show you when you must draft a position sooner than expected. A tiered draft board keeps you from making panicked decisions while on the clock.

These tiers are based on 2014 expectation only and I'm basing positional classifications on the MFL database (which syncs to the Rotoworld depth charts later in the offseason). I will include a separate dynasty stash tier at the end of each positional article.

(The date on this article represents the last time the tiers were updated. Make sure you are viewing the most recent tier article by checking the complete IDP article list here.)

THIS IS THE EARLY TRAINING CAMP UPDATE (LATE july)

Training camps are here. With them come injuries and depth chart shuffles, but -- finally -- some clarity on exactly what teams are expecting from their rosters, who will play where and when. The number of names in the redraft watch list tier will dwindle. And the updates to this feature will come more often.

I've added a column to address trends inside and throughout the tiers. I'll add a ^^^^ for those players making a move up in my tiers and vvvv for those players who have dropped since the previous tier release (July 5). For reference, I'm going to preserve the earlier versions of these tier articles, but the trend column should help you see where player movement is happening within the tiers at a quick glance. 

I've also included an ADP column. The ADP number (snapshot taken on July 31) will be an average of our FBG rankings, the FantasyPros Consensus Rankings and ADP data from recent drafts at MFL. If a player does not have an ADP in his column, it means he wasn't ranked in the top 60 in at least two of the three consensus rank lists.

TIER 1 | ELITE DL1

This tier includes a group of defensive ends that are high ceiling, high floor options in any league setup. There may be players in the next tier you're comfortable elevating, but you'll have trouble convincing yourself that a player from this group is less than a strong DL1.

J.J. Watt <> DL1 Consecutive seasons of 65+ solos, near lock to "regress" to mid double digit sacks
Robert Quinn <> DL2 Outscored Watt in balanced scoring systems in 2013, breakout season was no fluke
Chandler Jones <> DL3 Elite fantasy talent with room to improve as pass rusher, home stat crew increases assists
Greg Hardy <> DL4 Length of likely suspension unknown; three straight seasons near 40 solos, elite pass rusher

TIER 2 | ELITE DL1 UPSIDE

This is the beauty of the tier approach. I have the higher floor players listed nearer the top here, but there's not much difference between the top of this group and the bottom. I'm moving Pierre-Paul up in this tier after his optimistic comments about his health early in camp. If he shows his former explosiveness this preseason, he'll move up to the top of this tier.

Cameron Wake <> DL5 Sack numbers didn't show it, but still dominant last year before MCL sprain slowed him 
Rob Ninkovich <> DL8 Quietly a lock for 40 solos and 7-8 sacks, NE stat crew helped with 49 assists last year 
DeMarcus Ware <> DL10 Will see more pass rush chances in DEN, top three upside if neck/elbow healthy 
Calais Campbell <> DL6 New coordinator didn't affect production last year, safe 45-8 floor with 50-10 upside 
Mario Williams <> DL11 Again classified at DE, good fit for Schwartz scheme 
Cameron Jordan <> DL13 Dominant 5-tech pass rusher, solo tackles will rebound, high floor play with upside 
Jason Pierre-Paul ^^^^ DL9 Slotting the 25-year old here is a hedge: If healthy, he's elite; if not, look out below. 
Carlos Dunlap <> DL12 Frustratingly inconsistent and durability risk but has elite potential 
Lamarr Houston <> DL19 Move to Chicago will not hurt solid tackle numbers, should see more pass rush opportunity 
Michael Johnson <> DL20 Tough to slot as contract motivation and Zimmer effect gone, but talent is there 
Ezekiel Ansah <> DL14 Injuries limited development last year but could make Quinn / Jones type leap in 2014

TIER 3A | DL2 W/ DL1 UPSIDE

In a simple rank list, the players in this group would be mixed with those in the High Variance DL2 and High Floor DL2 tiers. There isn't much difference between Charles Johnson (in this tier) and Carlos Dunlap (in the tier above). And that's just one example. In general, I think the players in the tier above have a higher ceiling than those here. It's arguable that those higher ceiling players also have a lower floor than the top players in this tier. When you make your final tier lists, do so with your own draft philosophy in mind. If you'd rather have the higher percentage player, move those players you don't trust down into a more appropriate tier.

Olivier Vernon <> DL16 OTA reports were strong, but not sure he can repeat last year 46-11.5 effort
Muhammad Wilkerson <> DL7 Arguably should slot alongside Campbell and Jordan as all-around 3-4 monster
Charles Johnson <> DL16 Still stud pass rusher, but durability and three years of Freeney-esque solo tackle worry
Everson Griffen [VALUE] <> DL29 If you like to chase upside, Griffen's per snap profile suggests breakout is coming
Justin Tuck <> DL22 Frustrated fantasy owners for years, but 2013 mini-renaissance has renewed hope
Adrian Clayborn <> DL24 Another year from ACL surgery, to benefit from strong scheme and surrounding cast
Jared Allen <> DL17 Once uber-elite tackle numbers are long gone, pass rush rate stats remain strong

TIER 3B | HIGH VARIANCE DL2

In a simple rank list, the players in this group would be mixed with those in the DL2 with DL1 Upside and High Floor DL2 tiers. This group is scoring system sensitive. They'd rank higher in this large tier in sack-heavy scoring leagues, lower in tackle-heavy systems. Wallace Gilberry and Jerry Hughes represent the best values in this tier and the best chance of DL2+ upside.

Chris Long <> DL23 Could put up 3-4 sacks any week, but long stretches of fantasy purgatory still likely
Wallace Gilberry <> DL42 Did well in larger role, snap count dependent on development of Margus Hunt
Jerry Hughes [VALUE] <> DL40 Quiet 9.5 sacks last year, locked in as DE starter after strong OTA weeks
Cliff Avril <> DL33 Great scheme, more snaps this year, tackle numbers too inconsistent to rank higher
Lamarr Woodley <> DL37 Very low floor due to chronic hamstring issues, if stays on field will outperform this tier
Brian Robison <> DL34 Good year-end numbers, not talented enough to produce consistent all-around stats

TIER 3C | HIGH FLOOR DL2

In a simple rank list, the players in this group would be mixed with those in the DL2 with DL1 Upside and High Variance DL2 tiers. This tier is light right now. I like the ceiling of Wilkerson, Griffen, Tuck and Clayborn too much to drop them into this group. And I don't like the floor of the large group of ends in the tier that follows.

Mathias Kiwanuka [VALUE] <> DL82 Talented, underrated but not elite; OTA alignments suggest 700+ snaps possible
Michael Bennett <> DL27 Could finish in top 15 if cashes in on his increased snap count and scheme
Sheldon Richardson <> DL21 Won't generate pass rush stats needed for elite tier status, strong high floor target
Cameron Heyward <> DL31 Still developing, flashed consistency in second half of 2013 after returning from injury

TIER 4 | DL3 W/ MATCHUP VALUE

This group looks weaker than recent years. But we're now over 30 players deep in the tier list -- even if Umenyiora and Peppers are reclassified to outside linebacker as I expect. I'm increasing leery about Peppers. Only draft him if your scoring system allows him to hold value if he's reclassified to linebacker.

Julius Peppers** [CAUTION] vvvv DL41 Still classified DL, but preseason work suggests change to LB likely
Chris Clemons <> DL35 Arguably best pass rusher in Jacksonville, snap count and health not assured
Willie Young vvvv DL79 Situational role again behind Houston and Allen limits his upside
Dion Jordan <> DL51 Suspended four games, impressing this offseason, snap count remains question
Andre Branch ^^^^ DL50 Resistant to add to tiers, but strong offseason play continues
Osi Umenyiora** vvvv DL47 Rotational player with risk of reclassification to linebacker
Jurrell Casey <> DL28 Talented enough to be lesser version of Calais Campbell
Fletcher Cox <> DL48 Still waiting for breakout but tools and snap count will be there
Jeremy Mincey ^^^^ DL49 DeMarcus Lawrence injury guarantees high snap count, could surprise
Justin Smith <> DL46 No longer elite combo of solos/sacks, SF depth improving, rotation likely
Arthur Jones <> DL68 Better football player than stat compiler, not every-week option
Haloti Ngata <> DL60 Reclassified to DE, durability questions are hard to ignore
George Selvie <> DL43 Good scheme fit, open depth chart; has talent/durability questions
Margus Hunt ^^^^ DL58 Larger rotational role, could be every week starter if wins majority of base snaps
Malik Jackson ^^^^ DL55  Working ahead of Derek Wolfe in camp, could see 750+ snaps, nice upside
Mike Daniels <> DL73 Potentially dominant pass rusher, would have more value if classified at DT
Jason Jones ^^^^  DL64 Talented, good fit for scheme, if knees stay healthy will have matchup value

TIER JUMPERS | REDRAFT WATCH LIST

These players will move into a tier based on their performance in OTAs, minicamps and early training camp. If you've got roster space, consider this your pre-camp news sleeper list.

Damontre Moore <> DL39 Still needs development, DL2 upside if ready for base defensive role
Devin Taylor <> DL56 May see 700 snaps with Willie Young gone, offensive lines will focus on teammates
Demarcus Lawrence vvvv DL52 Broken foot in camp, needed snaps and developmental time to have fantasy value
Derek Wolfe vvvv DL62 May not be healthy enough to assume large role, behind Malik Jackson now
Anthony Spencer <> DL66 Now running after long recovery from microfracture surgery, still may start on PUP
Jared Crick <>   Texans did not add DE depth in draft, could get 700 snaps alongside Watt / Clowney

DYNASTY STASH

This list was short before the draft. Unfortunately, the draft didn't add many prospects to the mix. Shallow dynasty owners will have some of the above tier available to them. Deep dynasty owners should be looking at any rookie from 2013 still on an NFL roster (e.g. Cornelius Washington, Malliciah Goodman).

Kareem Martin <>   Significant risk of eventual LB classification, Arizona will look for best fit
Quanterus Smith <>   Now nearly two years post ACL surgery, good depth chart opportunity
Kony Ealy <>   Stuck behind Hardy and Johnson but their off-field and contract issues could give him 2015 chance
Tank Carradine <>   Up to 290 pounds, transitioning to 3-4 DE, health and edge rush ability at higher weight unknown
Scott Crichton <>   Will develop behind Griffen and Robison, Zimmer not shy about rotating young talent into mix
Datone Jones <>   Showed ability to handle 3-4 end role at UCLA, not yet convinced he has viable fantasy ceiling
Chris Smith <>   Great fit as possible long term LEO in Jacksonville, may not be strong or quick enough for NFL

DT TARGETS

The top three names on this list -- Geno AtkinsGerald McCoy and Ndamukong Suh would slot in the High Variance DL2 tier. The rest of the list is part of the matchup cloud in combined DE/DT leagues. Dynasty leaguers in DT-required leagues shouldn't hold a roster spot for anyone not on this list if there are waiver wire options of value at other positions.

Geno Atkins <> DL18 On active roster now, must prove explosiveness still there after ACL injury last year
Gerald McCoy <> DL25 Primo scheme, entering prime of career, overall DT1 / DL2 finish possible
Ndamukong Suh <> DL26 Didn't finish in pocket enough last season, improvement from Ansah would help
Kyle Williams <> DL32 Quietly productive despite injury and scheme changes
Henry Melton <> DL44 Great fit with Marinelli and Tampa-2 undertackle role; injury concern
Nick Fairley <> DL36 Will become top tier fantasy DT if tackle numbers improve
Marcell Dareus <> DL30 If tackle counts remain high outside of Pettine system, should remain strong DT1
Dontari Poe <> DL38 Sacks fell off cliff after Week 5 but pressure per snap and tackle counts did not
Antonio Smith <> DL70 Now slated for 3-tech role in Oakland, strong numbers coming if free agent pieces fit
Sharrif Floyd <> DL84 New scheme, Zimmer should be positive for development, played w/ first team in OTA
Aaron Donald <> DL45 Stud interior pass rusher to play alongside Quinn, may be seriously underrating him here
Star Lotulelei <> DL61 Would be higher if pass rush was better, breakout potential here
Jay Ratliff <> DL76 Good scheme with Bears, high variance DT2 play
Linval Joseph <> DL63 Zimmer gets most out of his tackle rotation, has 40-6 upside
Sylvester Williams <> DL53 Improved as 2013 progressed, may not be elite but upside makes him rosterable
Dominique Easley <> DL85 As disruptive as Donald, similar upside as part of strong DL; injury concern
Michael Brockers <> DL72 Disappointing, but talent and surrounding cast earn him one more benefit of the doubt year
Ra'Shede Hageman <>   Classified as DT - for now - could be loophole to exploit if earns big snaps at DE

Follow and ask questions on Twitter @JeneBramel. Reading the Defense will be a regular feature this offseason with free agent commentary, draft prospect previews, tier discussion, links to our offseason IDP roundtable podcasts and much more. Subscribe to The Audible on iTunes or download our IDP podcast here

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