One major shake-up to the College Football Playoff picture came last weekend with Oregon falling victim to the yearly Arizona State upset that Herm Edwards seemingly pulls out of nowhere. This loss put an end to Oregon's dreams of making the Playoff, but their season is certainly not over, as they have a major rivalry game this weekend in the Civil War against Oregon State, along with the PAC 12 Championship game against Utah on the horizon. Should they pull an upset against Utah in the Championship Game, the PAC 12 will be left out of the Playoff once again this season, which may strengthen the push for an eight-team playoff going forward. Aside from Oregon's loss last weekend, not much else changed at the top, but rivalry week will likely shake things up, as we have a handful of battles with playoff implications on the DraftKings main slate of games. It doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure out that Michigan against Ohio State will be appointment television, as Jim Harbaugh looks to finally pull out a victory over his number-one rival. Then, later in the afternoon, Alabama heads to Auburn without Tua Tagovailoa, who was lost for the season due to a dislocated hip a few weeks ago. Mac Jones, while a significant downgrade from Tagovailoa, is a capable quarterback that should give the team a chance to win the game, but any slip-up at this point in the season would dash Alabama's hopes and dreams of sneaking a second SEC team into this year's playoff picture. Elsewhere, we've been gifted a handful of expectedly-high-scoring affairs on the main slate of games providing plenty of fantasy goodness to fill out lineups with.
Best of luck to everyone, and as always, if you have any questions, comments, or concerns about this article, feel free to reach out to me on twitter @ThaGreatZambino!
STRATEGY NOTE
There is one fundamental difference between NFL DFS and College Football DFS, and that is lineup construction. A college football lineup removes the tight end and defense positions and replaces them with one super flex position. The super flex position can be filled by a quarterback, running back, or wide receiver. On nearly every single slate throughout the year rostering a second quarterback in the super flex position will be optimal in both cash games and tournaments. Keep this in mind all year when building lineups.
SLATE SNAPSHOT
Listed here are the most notable games for DFS purposes. In green are games with the highest projected totals, according to betting markets, and in red are the games with the lowest projected totals on the slate. Try to avoid using too many players in any single lineup from the game(s) in red. On the other hand, the game(s) in green should provide enough points and fantasy points across the board to make multiple pieces on each team viable for fantasy lineups.
- Tulsa @ East Carolina | Tulsa -5.5, Total: 61
- Wake Forest @ Syracuse | Wake Forest -3.5, Total: 69
- Tulane @ SMU | SMU -3.5, Total: 71
- Notre Dame @ Stanford | Notre Dame -16.5, Total: 46.5
- Wisconsin @ Minnesota | Wisconsin -2.5, Total: 44.5
- Ohio State @ Michigan | Ohio State -8, Total: 50
- Alabama @ Auburn | Alabama -3.5, Total: 49.5
Quarterback
Justin McMillan
After a strong 24.44-point performance last week in a game that Justin McMillan accounted for just one touchdown, his price increased by just $100 on DraftKings. McMillan, a former-transfer from LSU, is one of the most consistent dual-threat quarterbacks in the nation, rushing for at least one touchdown in 8 out of 11 games this season. This combination of rushing and passing production provides McMillan with a strong floor and ceiling of production, as shown by the fact that he has surpassed 23 DraftKings points in 5 out of his last 6 games, with 2 games over 34.5 DraftKings points during that span. Last weekend, McMillan and the Tulane Green Wave had a tough matchup against the UCF Golden Knights, which held him in check for the most part. This weekend, however, they face off with the SMU Mustangs, a team that relies upon its high-octane offense to win games, rather than a strong defense, like UCF. SMU has allowed at least 35 points in 3 straight games, to go along with 3 monstrous performances by the opposing quarterbacks. Against a pocket-passing quarterback, Brady White, the Mustangs allowed 350 yards and 3 scores through the air. Then, against a dual-threat quarterback, Holton Ahlers, they allowed 498 passing yards and 5 scores through the air. Last week, against Navy's triple-option offense, Malcolm Perry threw for 162 yards and 1 score through the air along with 195 yards and 2 touchdowns on the ground. This weekend, at just $6,400 on DraftKings, Justin McMillan is the number-one quarterback option as his dual-threat capabilities afford him a strong floor and ceiling of production against a struggling SMU defense.
Jamie Newman
Last weekend, Micale Cunningham erupted against this Syracuse defense for a monstrous passing and rushing day. This weekend, Jamie Newman, arguably the best quarterback in the ACC, less-Trevor Lawrence, will head up to Syracuse to face-off against the Orange's horrific run defense. Typically playing on the road serves as a slight disadvantage for a team. However, this weekend, for Newman and the rest of Wake Forest's offense, it is a positive, as the Carrier Dome will shield this game from the adverse weather conditions that typically accompany a late-November showdown. At $7,900, Jamie Newman will not come cheap this weekend, but his season-long consistency under-center for the Demon Deacons justifies this top-end price tag. Newman has scored at least 29.92 DraftKings points in 7 out of his 10 starts this season. His combination of rushing and passing production makes him an elite candidate to gash Syracuse's porous defensive front-seven. In recent weeks, the Orange's run defense has been one of the nation's worst, allowing 2 200-yard rushers over the last 3 games. While Newman is unlikely to add a third tally to that group this weekend, he just ran the ball 29 times for over 140 yards and a touchdown last week against Duke, proving his willingness and capabilities on the ground. Overall, Newman is worth paying up for this weekend against a floundering Syracuse Orange defense that has allowed eye-popping numbers both on the ground and through the air in recent weeks.
Holton Ahlers
One quick glance at Holton Ahlers' game logs will show the upside of East Carolina's quarterback, as he has scored at least 47 DraftKings points in 2 out of his last 3 games. This production is not to be regularly expected out of the young dual-threat quarterback, obviously, as these eruptions came in five and six touchdown performances, respectively. This weekend, Ahlers leads the East Carolina Pirates into action against Tulsa in a game projected to total over 60 points between the two teams. Ahlers thrives in these high-scoring affairs, scoring at least 28 DraftKings points in 4 out of the team's 5 games to surpass 60 total points. Ahlers, a sophomore, was highly inconsistent to open the season, scoring under 20 DraftKings points in 5 out of the first 6 games in 2019. However, his recent improvement is glaringly obvious, posting at least 28 DraftKings points in 4 out of his last 5. Tulsa's defense has allowed 5 out of their last 7 opponents to post at least 31 points, including multiple 40 point games. Expect Holton Ahlers and the East Carolina Pirates to come out firing in an expectedly-high-scoring affair against the Tulsa Golden Hurricanes this weekend. Ahlers typically thrives in this type of game, and at $7,200, he makes for the perfect middle-ground between Jamie Newman and Justin McMillan this weekend in all contest formats.
Secondary/Tournament Option
Lynn Bowden, Jr.
Lynn Bowden, Jr. opened the season as Kentucky's number-one wide receiver, and all offseason the Wildcats' coaching staff raved about how they needed to do whatever they could to get the ball into his hands. Following a rash of injuries at the quarterback position, the way they've decided to get the ball into Bowden's hands is by simply snapping the ball directly to him as the team's new quarterback. Bowden played some quarterback in high school in a run-heavy offensive attack. Now, his college team has adopted a similar attack, with Bowden running the ball for at least 99 yards in every game he has started under center. The Kentucky Wildcats are three-point favorites over the Louisville Cardinals this weekend, with an implied team total of about 28 points. Bowden rarely throws the football, however, with his strong floor and ceiling of rushing production, any passing production would surely put him over the top as an elite tournament option this weekend.
Running Back
Xavier Jones
Xavier Jones is one of the nation's most consistent running backs this season, as he has found the end zone in every game except for one this year. Jones carried the ball just 18 times for about 60 yards and a score last weekend, totaling 11.1 DraftKings points after accounting for a fumble lost. His volume and production dipped last weekend in a slow game against Navy's run-heavy offensive attack that drains the clock and minimizes scoring opportunities for both teams. SMU's offensive output dropped significantly in this game, as Navy dominated time of possession, disallowing Jones to get going on the ground. This weekend, however, the Mustangs take on the Tulane Green Wave, a team that has allowed over 2.5 rushing touchdowns and nearly 200 rushing yards per game this season. Xavier Jones has only been held under 20 DraftKings points thrice this season: once against Texas State in a 30-point blowout, then against the Memphis Tigers in a pass-heavy shootout, and lastly against the Navy Midshipman last weekend in a game that SMU was playing from behind (and rarely on offense) for the majority of the day. Look for SMU's number-one running back to bounce back this weekend against Tulane's porous run defense, making him one of the top running back choices on the slate, even at $7,500.
Shamari Brooks
As the lead running back in the Tulsa Golden Hurricane's run-heavy offensive attack, Shamari Brooks regularly approaches 20 carries week-in and week-out (aside from last weekend.) Last week, Tulsa was forced into an extremely pass-heavy offense against the Houston Cougars, as Zach Smith threw the ball 45 times, the most since Week 6. Subsequently, Shamari Brooks totaled only 9 carries and 22 yards on the ground, both season-low totals aside from Week 1 against Michigan State. This week, Brooks and the Golden Hurricane take on East Carolina's horrendous run defense in one of the best matchups on the main slate of games. Against one of the nation's weakest schedules, the East Carolina Pirates allow nearly 200 rushing yards and 2.5 rushing touchdowns per game on nearly 5 yards per carry. All three marks rank amongst the worst run defenses in the nation on the surface, and when accounting for their soft schedule, it looks even worse. Brooks will not break the bank this weekend at $5,600, and his volume will almost certainly rebound towards 20 carries. In the mid-range, Shamari Brooks makes for one of the strongest and safest cash-game options in Week 14 when Tulsa is expected to go into East Carolina and take home a victory in a high-scoring affair projected to total over 60 points between the teams.
C.J. Verdell
Although Oregon's College Football Playoff dreams were dashed last weekend during an upset loss to the Arizona State Sun Devils, their season is not over, as they could play their way into a New Year's Six bowl game with a pair of victories down the stretch. Up first on the schedule is the Civil War rivalry game against their rival Oregon State Beavers. The Beavers, while in the midst of a wildly-impressive 2019 campaign relative to preseason expectations, still field a weak run defense that has allowed nearly two rushing touchdowns per game this season. C.J. Verdell, who has been battling a recent hand injury, re-emerged as Oregon's lead running back last weekend, tallying a team-leading 18 carries for 99 yards against Arizona State's strong run defense. When healthy, Verdell's upside in the backfield for Oregon is incredible, with a pair of 170+ yard rushing performances in October. Verdell has also played a role in Oregon's passing attack this season, stringing together four consecutive games with at least two receptions before his playing time was limited due to the aforementioned hand injury. This weekend, following a full workload last weekend, Verdell is slated to gash a weak Oregon State defensive front for a big day on the ground as the Oregon Ducks look to rebound leading up to the PAC 12 Championship Game. At $6,500, Verdell's price makes him a stronger tournament option than a cash-game option, but he is viable in both formats. His big-play ability and potential receiving work provide an enviable ceiling of production, while a soft matchup and double-digit carry expectation provide a strong floor in Week 14. Verdell ranks firmly behind Xavier Jones and Shamari Brooks this weekend in cash games, but he is an acceptable pivot or flex option.
Secondary/Tournament Option
Cade Carney
Wake Forest's offense has been decimated by injuries and suspensions in recent weeks. The Demon Deacons lost Sage Surratt, their standout wide receiver, for the season to a knee injury a few weeks ago, and now their number-two running back, Christian Beal-Smith, is suspended for the rest of the season after violating team rules. Wake Forest favored a running-back-by-committee approach to their running game this season, but without Beal-Smith, Cade Carney, the team-leader in carries in their backfield, is slated for an increased workload alongside Kenneth Walker. This weekend, Wake Forest heads up to Syracuse to face a struggling Orange run defense that, as mentioned in the analysis of Jamie Newman, has been gashed for over 200-yards by 2 different running backs in the last 3 weeks. Carney will not play a bell-cow-like role in Wake Forest's backfield, which keeps him out of consideration in cash-games, but given the prime matchup, he has the potential for a monstrous performance on a partial workload. At $5,300, Cade Carney is not too difficult to fit into lineups this weekend, and he is a stackable option alongside quarterback Jamie Newman and wide receiver Kendall Hinton, as the upside for Wake Forest's offense as a whole is immense against a porous Syracuse defense, as Louisville proved just last week.
Wide Receiver
Tyler Snead
East Carolina's receiving corps is one of the most confusing units in the nation, as there seems to be no better example of feeding the proverbial hot hand in the entire country. The prime beneficiary of this approach to the passing game in recent weeks has been Tyler Snead. Snead emerged two games ago when C.J. Johnson went down early with an apparent injury. Racking up 20 targets in the game, Snead's explosion in that game led to tournament victories for his backers. The next time out, even with C.J. Johnson, the team's established number-one receiver averaging nearly 10 targets per game, back in the fold, Snead commanded another 19 targets against UCONN. This weekend, Tyler Snead sits at just $5,400 on DraftKings, making him a premier target at the wide receiver position in all formats. Snead is unlikely to approach 20 targets again this weekend, but at his middle-of-the-road price tag, even 10 targets would far exceed most salary-implied expectations for the redshirt freshman. Expect Snead to be one of the most-rostered players on the entire slate, as his recent performances resemble that of a near-$8,000 player, rather than a mid-$5,500 player.
Kendall Hinton
Wake Forest's offense has supported multiple top-end fantasy wide receivers all season. Sage Surratt was one of the nation's most prolific pass-catchers when healthy, and when he wasn't stuffing the stat sheet, Scotty Washington almost certainly was. Now, with Surratt out for the season and Washington absent from the team's depth chart entering Week 14, Kendall Hinton is primed for a day of massive volume through the air. When healthy, Hinton has posted impressive numbers through the air, as long as he wasn't facing off against Clemson's top-tier secondary, and now sits alone atop Wake Forest's depth chart. At $6,500, Kendall Hinton does not jump off the page as a glaringly-obvious value play, but considering the top-flight production from number-one receivers in Wake Forest's offense all season, he projects to be one of the top players at the position this weekend. Expect Hinton to eclipse double-digit targets with relative ease this weekend against Syracuse's struggling defense, which should translate into a massive receiving day. Hinton's market share of targets in the Demon Deacon's passing attack this weekend should be one of the highest of any pass-catcher on the slate, making his touchdown equity as high as anyone's. Kendall Hinton is one of the safest receiving options on the slate, and even at a not-insignificant price tag of $6,500, he's too cheap against the Syracuse Orange this weekend. He makes for an exceptional piece to stack alongside quarterback Jamie Newman this weekend in both cash games and tournaments, as the floors and ceilings of production for both players are incredible.
Seth Williams
Seth Williams' volume in Auburn's passing attack trends upwards in the team's toughest and most important matchups. Williams is clearly quarterback Bo Nix's favorite target through the air, registering nearly 10 targets per game while no other wide receiver on the roster averages more than 5. Against the Georgia Bulldogs two weekends ago, Williams totaled 20 targets, hauling in 13 passes for 121 yards and 28.1 DraftKings points. Alabama's defense this season, while an impressive unit as always, has shown a vulnerability uncharacteristic of a typical Crimson Tide defense. LSU's offensive explosion against Alabama in Week 11 capped off a 5-game stretch that also included a 28-point showing from Texas A&M and a 31-point game from Ole Miss. This weekend, in one of the nation's biggest rivalry games, the Auburn Tigers will look to play spoiler and put a definitive end to Alabama's fading College Football Playoff hopes. Expect Gus Malzahn to scheme a passing attack once again centered around Seth Williams, as he has scored at least 14.1 DraftKings points in every game against top-25 competition this season. Given the tough matchup, Williams' floor of production is substantially lower than either Snead's or Hinton's. Still, at $6,000, he will likely be a low-owned and high-upside option perfect for filling a wide receiver spot in a tournament lineup.
Chase Claypool
Chase Claypool entered the 2019 season as one of the most-hyped wide receivers in the nation, as he was expected to grow into a larger role in Notre Dame's passing attack following the departure of Miles Boykin. Claypool opened the season on a tear, with at least 94 receiving yards or a touchdown in 4 out of his first 5 games. Now, following a midseason lull, Claypool and quarterback Ian Book have returned to their early-season ways by connecting for 6 touchdowns over their last 3 games, with Claypool posting at least 19.0 DraftKings points in 4 straight. Claypool averages over 11 targets per game over his previous 4 games, providing a strong floor of production regardless of opponent. Now, he faces off with a struggling Stanford Cardinal pass defense that has been gashed through the air in recent weeks. Notre Dame is projected to score over 30 points this weekend, and given his recent involvement in the Fighting Irish's red zone attack, Claypool has a great opportunity account for at least 1 of those scores. At $6,500, Claypool is a strong pivot away from Kendall Hinton, who will likely be the most popular mid-$6,000 wide receiver option on the slate. The two can certainly be rostered together, as Claypool is also a strong and safe option for cash games, although fitting multiple mid-to-high-priced receivers may be difficult.
Secondary/Tournament Option
Jerry Jeudy
Aside from Tyler Snead, Week 14's slate lacks viable value at the wide receiver position. As a tournament-only option this weekend, consider paying up for Jerry Jeudy. Jeudy is now the second-highest-priced Crimson Tide wide receiver, as DeVonta Smith has surpassed him at $6,900 while Jeudy sits at $6,700. He is a tournament-only option this weekend due to a difficult road matchup against Auburn's stout defense, along with some uncertainty under-center for the Alabama Crimson Tide. With Tua Tagovailoa going down for the season with a dislocated hip, Mac Jones will slot in as the team's new starter. Jones is a capable passer, but also an undeniable downgrade from Tagovailoa. Expect a much simpler version of Alabama's typically-high-octane offense this weekend as they face their first true test with Jones at the helm. Down the stretch, Jeudy stands out as the best pass-catching option for the Crimson Tide this weekend because of his unbelievable route-running ability. Many analysts have raved about Jeudy's route-running, naming him one of the most impressive and refined route-runners they have ever seen at the collegiate level. Expect Jerry Jeudy to create separation unlike any other Alabama pass-catcher this weekend, creating easy throws for Mac Jones, and fostering a high-volume day for Jeudy through the air. Jeudy will not come cheap, at $6,700, but in a must-win game, Alabama will certainly turn to their best skill-position players early and often to compensate for the loss of their top-end quarterback.
