READER'S GUIDE
Some key items are below:
- All references to fantasy points assume DraftKings scoring rules unless otherwise specified.
- All stats reference the full 2021 season unless otherwise specified.
- All fantasy points rankings are on a per-game basis to account for bye weeks unless otherwise specified.
This week, we'll discuss the following topics:
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Tweets of the Week
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Peaking at the Right Time
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Keep an eye out on Friday afternoon for an update to this article as more information regarding player availability comes in.
Tweets of the Week
Kyle Pitts age 21:
— Adam Levitan (@adamlevitan) December 29, 2021
* 5th among TEs in yards per route run
* T-1st among TEs in aDOT
* PFF's No. 5 TE behind Kittle, Andrews, Goedert, Kelce
* 127 yards short of Ditka's rookie TE record
* Just 1 TD on 64 catches
Would bet on improvement with age & positive TD rate regression.
Commentary and Action Items:
- Kyle Pitts entered the NFL with exceptionally lofty expectations. As the highest-drafted tight end in NFL history, Pitts immediately became a player for opposing defenses to focus their efforts on shutting down. Thus, his early-season numbers were underwhelming, with single-digit fantasy performances in three out of his first four outings. However, over the course of the season, Pitts worked his way up the leaderboards, where he now ranks as the fifth-highest-scoring tight end overall. His true yards-per-route-run (a regressed metric originally built by FootballGuys' own Danny Tuccitto to help adjust for the role that luck plays in a pass-catcher's efficiency numbers) is the fifth-highest in the NFL this season amongst all tight ends. As Adam Levitan pointed out on Twitter earlier this week, Pitts is almost certain to improve over time with more NFL experience, especially in the touchdown department. Pitts has found paydirt just once this season, which is a product of bad luck more than anything else. In the short term, Kyle Pitts ranks as one of the best tight end options in the league every week, and he should be locked into season-long lineups in the final weeks of the year. In the long term, Pitts is the unquestioned number-one tight end, and his value could rival top-tier options at running back and wide receiver.
Russell Wilson now on 3rd downs this season...
— Rich Hribar (@LordReebs) December 27, 2021
48.8% completion rate (42nd of 43 passers with 25+ attempts
-4.3% below expectation (35th)
35.4% 1D or TD% (33rd)
-0.248 EPA/Play (36th)
Commentary and Action Items:
- The 2021 season has been one to forget for the Seattle Seahawks across the board. A 2-3 start, followed by a devastating injury that sidelined Russell Wilson almost a month, put the team behind the eight-ball by the midpoint of the season. Unfortunately, things only got worse from there, as the team has gone 2-5 since Wilson returned to the fold. #Trendspotting has chronicled the play-calling issues in Seattle since last season, and the suboptimal approach shows up in Russell Wilson's passing numbers, which Rich Hribar tweeted about earlier this week. On first downs, Wilson boasts a strong 9.1 yards-per-attempt through the air. However, that mark sits at just 6.8 yards-per-attempt on all other downs. This stark contrast reflects the team's conservative style, where first downs are the only time for aggression. On second down, the Seahawks' focus apparently shifts to getting themselves into "third and manageable." Unfortunately, the way they (and many other NFL teams) view third and manageable differs vastly from what is truly "manageable." In the minds of many old-school NFL decision-makers, like those running the show in Seattle, anything better than 3rd-and-7 is generally considered to be manageable. However, a realistically manageable number would be much closer to 3rd-and-3. This difference leads to a suboptimal approach to non-first-down play-calling, which shines through in Wilson's passing tallies. Despite being equipped with one of the league's best wide receiver pairings, there is little to get excited about in Seattle's offense. Exercise caution locking any Seahawk player, aside from Rashaad Penny, the side's new bell-cow running back, into fantasy lineups in contests of any format across the final two weeks of the season.
Kyler Murray’s target distribution over the last two weeks without DeAndre Hopkins
— Graham Barfield (@GrahamBarfield) December 28, 2021
Ertz (24 | 28% share)
Kirk (21 | 24%)
Wesley (12 | 14%)
Green (11 | 13%)
Edmonds (9 | 10%)
Commentary and Action Items:
- Two weeks ago, DeAndre Hopkins went down with a knee injury that will keep him out for the rest of the season. Since Hopkins went down, Kyler Murray's redistribution of targets within the Cardinals' offense is worth investigating ahead of the final two weeks of the year. Atop the list, Zach Ertz averages 12 targets-per-game since Week 15, making him an immediate top-tier tight end option. Ertz is a borderline-top-five option at tight end this weekend in season-long championships. On the outside, Christian Kirk averages over 10 targets per game himself. Although he only mustered 11.8 points on 9 targets against the Indianapolis Colts last week, Kirk is an underpriced DFS option at just $5,800 on DraftKings, and he is worth considering as a starter in season-long championships against the Dallas Cowboys in Week 17. Aside from the top two receiving options and Chase Edmonds out of the backfield, no other Cardinal projects to have a receiving role worth considering in any fantasy football.
Peaking at the Right Time
The Miami Dolphins have rattled off seven consecutive victories after a dismal opening half of the 2021 season. Still, is very little fantasy value to be found down in Miami, outside of Jaylen Waddle. Under-center, Tua Tagovailoa's erratic production and lack of aggression make him one of the league's worst fantasy assets at the quarterback position. Then, the backfield is a mess, with Duke Johnson Jr and Myles Gaskin splitting carries. On the outside, Jaylen Waddle's record-breaking rookie season is the lone fantasy bright spot for the Dolphins, as Mike Gesicki's target volume is inconsistent, and DeVante Parker has totaled just 5 targets across his 2 games alongside Waddle during the team's winning streak.
The Philadelphia Eagles are 5-1 in their last 6 games, and they have scored at least 27 points in all 5 victories. With a playoff berth on the line in the last two weeks, expect this team to put the pedal to the metal trying to lock up their spot as one of the NFC's wild card entrants. Philadelphia's offense is one worth doing a deeper investigation into ahead of the final 2 games of the 2021 season.
Commentary and Action Items:
- Philadelphia's run-based attack maximizes Jalen Hurts's capabilities as a dual-threat quarterback. Despite menial passing totals across his last five outings, Hurts remains the number-six fantasy quarterback in the NFL in points-per-game. Expect more of the same from one of Philadelphia's team leaders as he tries to lead his side into the playoffs.
- In the backfield, Miles Sanders went down last week with a broken hand. Philadelphia will likely take a running-back-by-committee approach in his absence. Expect Boston Scott to lead the way, especially if Jordan Howard is unable to recover from an injury that kept him out of practice to start the week. Still, Boston Scott cannot be expected to play the vast majority of snaps, even as the side's number-one option. Kenneth Gainwell could make an impact as a high-risk, high-reward passing-down running back option this weekend if Howard is inactive. His role as the number-one option to spell Scott against Washington could fly under the radar and be a spot worth targetting in DFS tournaments. However, if Howard is active this weekend, he should approach double-digit carries, increasing the overall uncertainty in this position group. In this case, the Eagles backfield will be one to avoid outside of very deep season-long formats.
- At tight end, Dallas Goedert grades as one of the league's top players across the board. Given his unwavering role in the team's passing attack and the lack of league-wide depth at the position, he is a nailed-on starter in season-long formats and a high-priority option in DFS. Elsewhere, however, there is very little wiggle room for DeVonta Smith, the team's top wide receiver. At a macro-level, Smith's season-long per-snap production is subtly reminiscent of some of the league's best rookie wide receivers. Unfortunately, at a micro-level, his inconsistent receiving volume in a run-heavy offense makes him a tough player to trust outside of DFS tournaments and deep season-long formats.
