For the first 16 weeks of the season we are looking at every data point in about 10 different ways to gather as much information from it as possible. When week 17 comes along that process gets flipped on its head because not all players and teams are playing with the same motivation. We can no longer look at these stats in the same way. When we think about motivation a lot of people will immediately think that players aren’t going to be as efficient because they aren’t trying as hard. But that isn’t the case. All of these players are still looking for their next big contract and have millions of dollars on the line so they aren’t about to let their efficiency drop. Plus, if they don’t play as hard as they normally would they are more likely to get hurt which is the last thing they want in a meaningless game.
Instead, the main thing that you need to start to question is playing time and targets. Playing time is the easiest thing to bank on during the first 16 weeks and in a lot of ways it is still in week 17 but you just have to think of it in a different way. Snap and target trends aren’t as important as milestones and playoff probabilities. To gauge if a player is in a great position for heavy workload or high “motivation” these are some of the keys things that I like to look for:
- Was the team just eliminated from the playoffs last week? If a team was just eliminated in week 16 these are the teams that really tend to let down in week 17. They tend to be the teams that give some of their backups the most opportunities in week 17. This makes sense because if a team has been eliminated from the playoffs for quite some time, they have already started to work their backups into their plans to see if they are a player, they can trust next year. This isn’t the case for these teams just eliminated. They haven’t had a chance to see these players yet and want to see them in a real game. These teams might say they are playing it straight but be careful. The Rams and Browns are the main worry this week. The Colts to a lesser a degree being eliminated week 15.
- A derivative of this concern is the team that comes into the game with something to play for but if another team wins they no longer have anything to play for. An example, of this could be both the Texans and Chiefs. If the Patriots win the Chiefs are locked into a 3 or 4 seed. If the Patriots build up a pretty safe lead will the Chiefs still push their starters with a risk or injury? Similarly do the Texans care about a 3 seed vs a 4 seed? These may look like games they care about but it might be more beneficial to keep starters healthy and/or see how backups play in live games.
- The other end of this is the team that has been eliminated for quite some time. These teams have gotten used to their season over and are continuing to play for their next contract. Don’t worry too much about these teams. Think about the Dolphins last week. Someone might tell you they have no motivation but that’s usually not the case.
- Players on teams that have been eliminated with incentives or records to break. These have the opportunity to be the biggest boom opportunities because the team often becomes motivated to get the player their incentives. Be careful what the incentives are though. I hear people get excited about WR A needs 25 yards to trigger a $1 Million bonus or RB B needs 200 rushing yards to break the rushing record. The goals have to both be achievable and they need to be able to make a big difference in your lineup. If the WR gets 25 yards who cares? You are looking for over 100 yards. What is the probability that a RB gets 200 yards even if they give him a ton of carries? At some point they are going to stop trying for the record and you will be left with a disappointing performance. But if you see something like a WR needs 150 yards to get a $1M bonus and he is only $5000. I would feel pretty comfortable going heavy on this player.
Week 17 has historically been pretty good for me. We shouldn’t be changing our whole strategy for week 17 but we should we weighting things a little bit differently. If you go about it in a smart way you should be able to navigate the week 17 landmines with little trouble.
How to play the chalk
One of the biggest decisions each week is how to handle the chalk on the slate. The chalkiest players are typically the ‘best’ plays on the slate if you are trying to maximize your total points produced. However, if you are looking to win a big tournament you can gain a lot of ground on your competition if you choose a player that outperforms there. If that player is in a lot of lineups you can pass a lot at one time. Balancing scoring the most points and playing against your competition is the toughest part in DFS. In this section, we talk about how to handle the toughest decision of the week. What to do with the chalk:
QB
One of the chalk matchups of the week appears to be Jameis Winston and the Buccaneers against Matt Ryan and the Falcons. What a perfect way to end the season as these are the two teams that we have been picking on for our QB and WR matchups all year. Winston has surpassed 300 yards in all but one game since week 6. Matt Ryan hasn’t been nearly as consistent but he coming off a 384-yard game and has surpassed 300 yards in 10 of 14 himself. Both make sense as the chalk plays of the week.
One issue that both QBs have going for them is they lost a difference maker WR in the last few weeks. Winston lost Mike Evans and Ryan lost Calvin Ridley. Winston has had 458 yards and 335 yards in his last two games while Ryan is sitting at 210 and 384. That’s three good games out of four so it shouldn’t really be a concern as WR play is generally over rated for QBs. Of the two I like Winston the most and will likely come in somewhere around the field on him or maybe slightly higher on DK while going under the field on Ryan.
RB
Ezekiel Elliott is coming off one of his most disappointing games of the season totaling only 47 rushing yards on 13 carries and 37 yards on 7 receptions. It’s hardly the type of game the Cowboys had in mind when they paid Elliott the big money at the beginning of the season with their season on the line. However, the Cowboys aren’t out of the playoffs yet. All they need is the Eagles to lose to the Giants, which almost happened in week 14, and to win their game against the Redskins as big favorites.
With Dak Prescott’s health in question, especially after a poor game last week, expect the Cowboys to feature Elliott in their offense. If the Cowboys are successful building a lead, as expected, they will continue to feed Elliott and he could be on the way to a big game. Of course, a risk could be the Eagles blowing out the Giants and Elliott coming out of the game early. But the Eagles haven’t blown out anyone since the Cowboys way back in week 7, which I remember fondly. I am not going all in on Elliott but I will play him over the field. If I was playing just one lineup I would make him a part of it.
WR
The main reason I am planning on coming under weight on Matt Ryan is because you can get the majority of his production by simply rostering Julio Jones. Since Ridley’s injury in week 14 Jones has received target totals of 20 and 15 the last two weeks and turned them into receiving lines of 134-2 and 166-0. Those lines won folks a lot of money the last two weeks. As mentioned above, the matchup between the Bucs and the Falcons is the prime matchup of the slate and has as good of a chance as any to blow up. I wouldn’t over think this spot and make Jones one of your priorities for the week. I am not sure if I would pair him with Elliott as that is a lot of chalk in the same lineup but if you are contrarian enough elsewhere I don’t hate it.
TE
Darren Waller looks to be amongst the biggest chalk plays on both sites. Waller has been one of the success stories of the year. Coming into the year he had never had a season with over 100 total yards which he has surpassed in four different games this year. Waller currently sits at 1,038 total yards and earned a $9M per year contract extension during the season. Along the way he won us a lot of money too! Congratulations and thanks Darren Waller!
But the problem I have with Waller this week is Hunter Renfrow’s return from injury. As the season has gone on teams have started to limit the Raiders short range passing attack as Derek Carr isn’t a tough QB to figure out. As it turns out when Renfrow plays Waller’s targets tank when Renfrow is out Waller is the center of the passing game. Since week 8, in the games that Renfrow played Waller’s receiving lines from most recent first are 4-37, 5-78, 3-40, 2-52, 2-11. In games that Renfrow missed they are 8-122, 6-73, 7-100, 3-41. Those are some alarming splits. I’m selling Waller this week but can’t wait to start buying in best ball next year.
Playing contrarian
If you play too many chalky players you will be competing against too many people to win first place and the odds will be stacked against you. If you play too many contrarian players you won’t score enough points. Remember, the plays are contrarian because most likely there is something wrong with that player. In general, the public is very smart. Finding that right mix is the second hardest thing to do in DFS. In this section, I will try to point you to some of the most contrarian options on the slate with ownership projection below 5%.
Andy Dalton is coming off his biggest fantasy game of the season where he put up 396 yards and 4 TDs while winning DFS players a lot of money. This despite what many people thought was awful weather that required a benching. This week Dalton is facing the Browns who meet one of our criteria for teams that might be mixing up their lineup after having just been eliminated from the playoffs. Dalton should be a part of your GPP plans this week.
If you don’t like the idea of playing Dalton Joe Mixon might be your man. Mixon was the second highest owned player in Draftkings ‘Slant’ last week despite the fact that news came out right before lock that he was dealing with the flu. Sharp players shipped him out of their lineups while those not paying attention to the news were left with a single digit fantasy performance and the bust of the week. Many still aren’t aware of what the issue was with Mixon and instead will just fade him this week. Don’t be that player. Mixon continues to get a heavy workload each week. Even last week with the flu he had 21 rush attempts. Don’t play Mixon with Dalton but I love the idea of getting exposure to one of the two in your lineup at such low ownership.
One of my favorite exposure’s the last two weeks has been to Danny Amendola after the Marvin Jones injury. He disappointed last week with only 2 catches for 31 yards but the prior week he was a slate winner with 8 catches for 102 yards. If we can consistently get 100 yards from players at $4,500 on DK at sub 5% ownership every other week, we will be rich in no time. He’s not nearly as good a play on FD but at even lower ownership I like making him a part of my GPP plan there as well.
There aren’t a lot of great tight ends under 5% owned this week but the one that stands out to me is Jonnu Smith. Since week 7, when Delanie Walker has been out, Smith has gotten 4 or more targets in all but two games including 3 straight. In two of those games he has scored a TD which is a bit of point chasing but his targets are real. This week he faces the Texans who likely have very little incentive as the only thing they can gain is a 3 seed instead of a 4 seed whereas the Titans need to win to move on. Smith has more than a 5% chance of reaching a GPP winning score and should be a part of your GPP plans.