Each week, this column will take a critical look at key statistical trends to highlight pass rushing and tackle matchups to exploit and avoid. We'll be heavily relying on another great feature at FBG this season, the IDP Matchup Spreadsheet that will be generated by Aaron Rudnicki. That spreadsheet will contain weekly average statistical measures to help identify those defensive teams who are facing the best and worst opportunity as the season progresses. While this column will include analysis of tackle and pass rush opportunity and matchup data, it's only a fraction of the data available in the spreadsheet. We hope that the Matchup Spreadsheet and this column will join John Norton's weekly IDP projections, Doug Drinen's Matchup Analyzer Tool and our customizable MyFBG function as useful tools to assist in making weekly line-up and waiver wire decisions.
You are very welcome to the 16th edition of the IDP Matchup column here at Footballguys in 2019. I have been penning this defensive diary for the past several years and I am delighted to be able to share some tidbits to help you secure a league title come December.
For those of you who don’t know me, my name is Dave Larkin. I am a veteran IDP player and what some would call a diehard fan of this game of football that we all love so much.
Defense is my passion. Over the past few years, I have assimilated countless pages of data from various sources to hone my knowledge of the defensive side of the football. Every week I will study film from the previous week’s games and provide you with nuggets of wisdom that will lead you to a championship.
It is championship week in most fantasy leagues, its arrival creating a sense of anticipation and intrigue. Line-up decisions become magnified, the prospect of upside versus a safe floor must be accounted for, and sometimes you just have to rely on your gut. Whatever happens, ensure your preparation is airtight. After that, let the chips fall where they may – and enjoy the ride.
Without further ado, let’s kick off with this week’s match-ups.
Team Defense | Team Offense | |||||||||
LEAGUE AVG | Pressure Applied | QB | QB | Drop Backs | Pressure Allowed | QB Sacks | QB Hits | Drop | ||
AVERAGE | Sacks | Hits | Faced | Allowed | Allowed | Backs | ||||
2016 NFL Average | 14.2% | 2.18 | 5.37 | 37.8 | 14.2% | 2.18 | 5.37 | 37.8 | ||
2017 NFL Average | 15.1% | 2.33 | 5.49 | 36.5 | 15.0% | 2.33 | 5.49 | 36.5 | ||
2018 NFL Average | 15.0% | 2.50 | 5.56 | 37.0 | 15.0% | 2.50 | 5.56 | 37.0 | ||
2019 NFL Average | 15.0% | 2.51 | 5.59 | 37.3 | 15.0% | 2.51 | 5.59 | 37.3 | ||
Team Defense | Team Offense | |||||||||
Pressure Applied | QB | QB | Drop Backs | Pressure Allowed | QB Sacks | QB Hits | Drop | |||
Sacks | Hits | Faced | Allowed | Allowed | Backs | |||||
ARIZONA Cardinals | 13.6% | 2.4 | 5.4 | 39.9 | 10.9% | 3.4 | 4.1 | 37.9 | ||
ATLANTA Falcons | 11.9% | 1.7 | 4.3 | 36.0 | 17.7% | 3.1 | 8.0 | 45.1 | ||
BALTIMORE Ravens | 19.2% | 2.4 | 7.1 | 37.1 | 12.6% | 1.9 | 3.7 | 29.6 | ||
BUFFALO Bills | 16.2% | 3.0 | 6.1 | 37.6 | 16.8% | 2.5 | 5.8 | 34.4 | ||
CAROLINA Panthers | 17.4% | 3.5 | 6.6 | 38.2 | 14.8% | 3.6 | 6.2 | 42.1 | ||
CHICAGO Bears | 13.7% | 2.2 | 5.4 | 39.1 | 12.4% | 2.7 | 4.9 | 39.1 | ||
CINCINNATI Bengals | 14.2% | 1.6 | 4.5 | 31.6 | 13.0% | 3.1 | 5.4 | 41.1 | ||
CLEVELAND Browns | 14.9% | 2.6 | 5.2 | 35.1 | 11.5% | 2.4 | 4.2 | 36.6 | ||
DALLAS Cowboys | 15.6% | 2.3 | 5.9 | 37.4 | 13.7% | 1.6 | 5.3 | 38.7 | ||
DENVER Broncos | 12.8% | 2.4 | 4.6 | 35.8 | 15.6% | 2.8 | 5.4 | 34.4 | ||
DETROIT Lions | 11.1% | 1.9 | 4.4 | 39.2 | 14.6% | 2.7 | 5.8 | 39.6 | ||
GREEN BAY Packers | 16.2% | 2.5 | 6.0 | 37.1 | 15.1% | 2.4 | 5.5 | 36.5 | ||
HOUSTON Texans | 15.0% | 2.1 | 5.9 | 39.0 | 15.4% | 2.9 | 5.6 | 36.1 | ||
INDIANAPOLIS Colts | 14.1% | 2.4 | 5.1 | 36.5 | 17.9% | 1.9 | 6.2 | 34.8 | ||
JACKSONVILLE Jaguars | 17.3% | 3.1 | 6.1 | 35.0 | 13.2% | 2.6 | 5.2 | 39.6 | ||
KANSAS CITY Chiefs | 15.0% | 2.8 | 5.8 | 38.6 | 12.5% | 1.7 | 4.9 | 38.7 | ||
LOS ANGELES Chargers | 13.1% | 1.9 | 4.1 | 31.1 | 15.3% | 2.1 | 5.9 | 38.7 | ||
LOS ANGELES Rams | 15.0% | 3.1 | 5.7 | 38.2 | 12.5% | 1.5 | 5.0 | 40.1 | ||
MIAMI Dolphins | 11.3% | 1.3 | 3.9 | 34.1 | 22.9% | 3.9 | 9.4 | 40.9 | ||
MINNESOTA Vikings | 15.8% | 2.9 | 6.4 | 40.4 | 12.8% | 1.6 | 4.0 | 31.1 | ||
NEW ENGLAND Patriots | 17.2% | 2.9 | 6.2 | 36.2 | 14.0% | 1.9 | 5.9 | 41.8 | ||
NEW ORLEANS Saints | 16.7% | 3.4 | 6.9 | 41.1 | 9.9% | 1.2 | 3.7 | 37.6 | ||
NEW YORK Giants | 16.1% | 2.3 | 5.9 | 36.4 | 18.0% | 2.7 | 7.1 | 39.7 | ||
NEW YORK Jets | 16.4% | 2.1 | 6.3 | 38.4 | 19.5% | 3.4 | 7.1 | 36.2 | ||
OAKLAND Raiders | 11.5% | 2.1 | 4.0 | 34.9 | 8.9% | 1.7 | 3.0 | 33.6 | ||
PHILADELPHIA Eagles | 17.4% | 2.6 | 6.4 | 36.9 | 15.8% | 2.5 | 6.4 | 40.6 | ||
PITTSBURGH Steelers | 19.4% | 3.5 | 7.1 | 36.9 | 13.3% | 1.9 | 4.5 | 33.9 | ||
SAN FRANCISCO 49ers | 16.2% | 3.4 | 5.6 | 34.3 | 15.1% | 2.0 | 4.9 | 32.6 | ||
SEATTLE Seahawks | 10.8% | 1.7 | 4.4 | 40.9 | 19.5% | 3.0 | 6.8 | 34.9 | ||
TAMPA BAY Buccaneers | 15.4% | 2.6 | 6.8 | 44.1 | 16.3% | 3.1 | 7.0 | 42.9 | ||
TENNESSEE Titans | 13.4% | 2.6 | 5.4 | 39.9 | 19.7% | 3.6 | 6.4 | 32.2 | ||
WASHINGTON Redskins | 16.0% | 3.0 | 5.8 | 36.2 | 18.3% | 3.1 | 5.9 | 32.0 | ||
Strong Matchup | ||||||||||
Neutral | ||||||||||
Weak Matchup |
Pass Rushing Match-ups to Exploit
Cincinnati pass rushers at Miami
The Bengals may be a 1-13 team, but they have stretches where they look as if they could topple superior outfits. Even against the Patriots last week there was a period when they appeared feisty, with defensive stalwarts like Carlos Dunlap making his presence felt. Cincinnati’s pass rush has averaged pressure on a paltry 14.2% of dropbacks this season, a statistic as much about opportunity as anything else. With the team trailing in most games, the chances to rush the passer simply haven’t been forthcoming. That may change this week.
The Dolphins have been a defense resembling soft butter this season, with every NFL offense acting as the knife that cleaves it down its soft center. Ryan Fitzpatrick can move around the pocket, extend plays and gives the offense a chance, but they have allowed 3.9 sacks and 9.4 hits on average and consistently fail to run the ball (40.9 dropbacks per game). Vegas predicts a close game, but even the Bengals’ much-maligned pass rush can thrive in this spot.
Key stat: The Dolphins have allowed pressure on 23.5% of dropbacks at home.
Indianapolis pass rushers vs. Carolina
The Panthers will turn to Will Grier at quarterback this Sunday, all but waving the white flag on their season. Grier was selected in the third round of the NFL Draft this year and the team clearly wants to get an extended look at him before making any rash offseason moves. What Grier’s involvement does from a defensive point of view is to make this match-up appealing for the Colts, a unit that has averaged pressure on just 14.1% of dropbacks this season, a poor mark.
But Carolina’s offensive line has been equally uninspiring, with frequent shuffling and inexperience hobbling their offense week after week. If Kyle Allen, a seasoned veteran in comparison to Grier, was unable to navigate the situation, the odds aren’t good for the rookie. From a narrative point of view, the Colts will be determined to sign off on a high at home. Expect a few big-play opportunities for the Indianapolis defenders and a game script – they are favored by seven – that will suit pass-rushing opportunities.
Key stat: The Panthers have a sack-allowed percentage of 8.5%, ranking seventh in the league.
Pass Rushing Match-ups to Avoid
Tennessee pass rushers vs. New Orleans
Drew Brees has benefited for the past few seasons from a stable offensive line. Injuries may have forced some changes up front recently, but it hasn’t seemed to halt the Saints offense one bit. What makes defenses so infuriated about stopping Brees is just how quickly he gets rid of the ball, essentially eliminating any pass rush opportunities. The statistics bear it out: they have given up just 1.2 sacks per game and 3.7 hits per game.
All of it points to a monumental task for the Titans, who can at least take some solace from the fact that Brees isn’t quite as sharp away from the cozy confines of the Superdome. It is a do-or-die affair for Tennessee, so expect Mike Vrabel’s team to pull out the stops. The Titans defense has been an excellent pass-rushing unit, averaging pressure on 19.7% of opponent dropbacks and notching 3.6 sacks per game. While a Titans victory is within the range of outcomes, the chances are the Saints will keep this one within reach and limit pass-rushing damage to Brees.
Key stat: The Saints have allowed pressure on a league-low 8.1% of dropbacks as the road team.
TEAM Defense | TEAM Offense | |||||||||||
Tackle Opportunity | Rush Attempts faced | Drop Backs | Offensive | Rush | Tackle Opps | Rush | Drop | Offensive | Rush Percentage | |||
AVERAGE | Faced | Snaps Faced | Percentage | Allowed | Attempts | Backs | Snaps | |||||
2016 NFL Average | 50.0 | 25.3 | 37.8 | 63.1 | 40.1% | 50.0 | 25.3 | 37.8 | 63.1 | 40.1% | ||
2017 NFL Average | 49.6 | 26.1 | 36.5 | 62.6 | 41.9% | 49.7 | 26.1 | 36.5 | 62.6 | 41.7% | ||
2018 NFL Average | 50.0 | 25.1 | 37.0 | 62.2 | 40.5% | 50.1 | 25.1 | 37.0 | 62.2 | 40.5% | ||
2019 NFL Average | 50.0 | 25.3 | 37.3 | 62.8 | 40.5% | 50.4 | 25.3 | 37.3 | 62.6 | 40.5% | ||
TEAM Defense | TEAM Offense | |||||||||||
Tackle Opportunity | Rush Attempts faced | Drop Backs | Offensive | Rush | Tackle Opps | Rush | Drop | Offensive | Rush Percentage | |||
Faced | Snaps Faced | Percentage | Allowed | Attempts | Backs | Snaps | ||||||
ARIZONA Cardinals | 56.2 | 26.9 | 39.9 | 66.8 | 40.3% | 49.3 | 23.6 | 37.9 | 61.5 | 38.3% | ||
ATLANTA Falcons | 50.7 | 25.9 | 36.0 | 62.7 | 41.8% | 52.6 | 21.2 | 45.1 | 66.3 | 32.0% | ||
BALTIMORE Ravens | 44.0 | 20.9 | 37.1 | 58.8 | 36.0% | 55.4 | 35.1 | 29.6 | 64.6 | 54.3% | ||
BUFFALO Bills | 46.1 | 22.7 | 37.6 | 61.6 | 37.7% | 50.6 | 29.1 | 34.4 | 63.6 | 45.8% | ||
CAROLINA Panthers | 51.9 | 26.0 | 38.2 | 64.2 | 40.5% | 51.4 | 24.4 | 42.1 | 66.5 | 36.7% | ||
CHICAGO Bears | 50.6 | 25.0 | 39.1 | 63.6 | 39.0% | 49.9 | 23.8 | 39.1 | 62.9 | 37.8% | ||
CINCINNATI Bengals | 51.1 | 30.6 | 31.6 | 62.1 | 49.1% | 47.6 | 22.6 | 41.1 | 63.6 | 35.5% | ||
CLEVELAND Browns | 49.1 | 26.4 | 35.1 | 61.5 | 42.9% | 47.8 | 24.9 | 36.6 | 61.6 | 40.5% | ||
DALLAS Cowboys | 49.7 | 24.5 | 37.4 | 61.4 | 39.6% | 52.6 | 27.7 | 38.7 | 66.4 | 41.7% | ||
DENVER Broncos | 51.3 | 26.9 | 35.8 | 61.7 | 42.9% | 46.4 | 24.4 | 34.4 | 58.7 | 41.5% | ||
DETROIT Lions | 52.1 | 26.8 | 39.2 | 66.9 | 40.6% | 50.8 | 25.3 | 39.6 | 64.9 | 38.9% | ||
GREEN BAY Packers | 49.7 | 26.0 | 37.1 | 64.5 | 41.2% | 47.6 | 23.6 | 36.5 | 60.1 | 39.2% | ||
HOUSTON Texans | 50.1 | 24.0 | 39.0 | 62.9 | 38.1% | 52.0 | 26.6 | 36.1 | 62.8 | 42.4% | ||
INDIANAPOLIS Colts | 49.6 | 23.1 | 36.5 | 59.8 | 38.7% | 50.5 | 28.6 | 34.8 | 63.4 | 45.1% | ||
JACKSONVILLE Jaguars | 49.7 | 26.3 | 35.0 | 62.2 | 42.9% | 49.3 | 23.8 | 39.6 | 63.4 | 37.5% | ||
KANSAS CITY Chiefs | 50.1 | 25.9 | 38.6 | 65.1 | 40.1% | 48.2 | 22.1 | 38.7 | 60.9 | 36.4% | ||
LOS ANGELES Chargers | 48.6 | 26.2 | 31.1 | 57.5 | 45.7% | 48.9 | 22.7 | 38.7 | 61.4 | 37.0% | ||
LOS ANGELES Rams | 52.9 | 28.1 | 38.2 | 66.5 | 42.3% | 49.6 | 23.8 | 40.1 | 63.9 | 37.2% | ||
MIAMI Dolphins | 52.4 | 30.1 | 34.1 | 64.2 | 46.8% | 46.6 | 20.6 | 40.9 | 61.5 | 33.4% | ||
MINNESOTA Vikings | 51.4 | 24.1 | 40.4 | 65.1 | 37.4% | 52.5 | 30.1 | 31.1 | 61.2 | 49.1% | ||
NEW ENGLAND Patriots | 43.6 | 22.1 | 36.2 | 58.8 | 37.9% | 52.4 | 26.4 | 41.8 | 68.2 | 38.7% | ||
NEW ORLEANS Saints | 48.0 | 21.1 | 41.1 | 61.6 | 34.0% | 51.5 | 23.9 | 37.6 | 61.5 | 38.8% | ||
NEW YORK Giants | 53.1 | 28.1 | 36.4 | 64.5 | 43.6% | 47.7 | 22.1 | 39.7 | 61.9 | 35.8% | ||
NEW YORK Jets | 50.1 | 25.3 | 38.4 | 64.0 | 39.7% | 46.2 | 22.5 | 36.2 | 58.7 | 38.3% | ||
OAKLAND Raiders | 48.0 | 25.0 | 34.9 | 59.8 | 41.8% | 51.1 | 27.1 | 33.6 | 60.7 | 44.6% | ||
PHILADELPHIA Eagles | 45.7 | 22.1 | 36.9 | 59.9 | 37.5% | 54.0 | 27.4 | 40.6 | 68.0 | 40.3% | ||
PITTSBURGH Steelers | 51.1 | 27.1 | 36.9 | 65.1 | 42.3% | 45.8 | 23.9 | 33.9 | 57.7 | 41.3% | ||
SAN FRANCISCO 49ers | 47.0 | 24.6 | 34.3 | 58.4 | 41.8% | 54.2 | 31.0 | 32.6 | 63.6 | 48.7% | ||
SEATTLE Seahawks | 49.4 | 22.7 | 40.9 | 63.1 | 35.7% | 54.1 | 29.7 | 34.9 | 64.6 | 46.0% | ||
TAMPA BAY Buccaneers | 49.4 | 21.1 | 44.1 | 63.9 | 32.4% | 52.8 | 25.1 | 42.9 | 68.1 | 36.9% | ||
TENNESSEE Titans | 52.2 | 25.6 | 39.9 | 64.5 | 39.1% | 48.7 | 26.1 | 32.2 | 58.3 | 44.7% | ||
WASHINGTON Redskins | 55.8 | 29.9 | 36.2 | 65.6 | 45.2% | 55.8 | 21.9 | 32.0 | 53.9 | 40.6% | ||
Strong Matchup | ||||||||||||
Neutral | ||||||||||||
Weak Matchup |
Tackle Match-ups to Exploit
Arizona and Seattle defenders
Stadium TVO rank: 5th (1.224)
The Cardinals come into this contest with absolutely nothing to lose, though their offense may provide less punch than that of the Seahawks in a match-up made for tackle opportunities. Seattle’s rushing attack has been a prolific part of their game plan, which has turned them into an offense that averages 54.1 tackle opportunities allowed per game and a 46% rush play percentage. Chris Carson should see a heavy workload with Seattle fancied as 9.5-point favorites.
Arizona’s offense, as I alluded to, hasn’t been quite as spectacular as many predicted prior to the season. Scoring just 22.1 points per game and failing to establish a consistent ground game behind a patchwork offensive line, Kyler Murray has shouldered a disproportionately large share of the load. It hasn’t always been pretty, but the Cardinals seem to be gaining a little confidence of late. If they can keep it close against the 49ers on the road, expect them to do the same in Seattle against a defense that has shown its warts in recent weeks. There should be more than enough tackle opportunity to keep both sets of defenders active in a prime TVO venue.
Key stat: The Seahawks average 30 rushing attempts per game at home.
Buffalo defenders at New England
Stadium TVO rank: 1st (1.268)
With the best TVO factor in the league, the smart play is to shoehorn your Patriots and Bills into your line-ups this week. However, the implied game script here calls for a comfortable New England victory, creating more opportunities to run the football against a Bills defense that has seen just 22.7 rushing attempts per game against them. The Patriots haven’t been a good offense this season; there is no other way to put it. Against their division rival, though, at home and heavily favored, the best course is to trust the New England home-field advantage and err on the side of playing the Bills defenders.
The Bills offense has averaged 29.1 rushing attempts, however, so the possibility for a big game from key Patriots defensive assets exists if the game script were to tilt the other way. Josh Allen is difficult to trust as a consistent chain mover, with the offense ranking in the bottom three in terms of pass completions (18.9). Bill Belichick is not going to let this one slip away, and by the end, it could have a very familiar end-of-season Patriots game feeling to it.
Key stat: The Patriots have averaged 41.8 dropbacks per game, above the league average of 37.3.
Tackle Match-ups to Avoid
Dallas and Philadelphia defenders
Stadium TVO rank: 30th (1.080)
The smart move when it comes to tackle opportunity and Philadelphia is to fade it completely as a venue. Ranking 30th in the league, the stadium simply doesn’t offer enough upside for our defensive assets. Bizarrely, the statistics suggest both offenses could provide ample tackle opportunity; the Cowboys have averaged 52.6 tackle opportunities allowed, while the Eagles come in at 54. However, the TVO issue is a real dampener on the prospects.
The game script calls for a tight affair, so both rushing attacks should remain viable – and especially in the Eagles case with so many receivers unable to participate due to injury. The Dallas defense showed up last week, but previous results were questionable. There is every chance, therefore, that the Eagles offensive line mauls Dallas’ line and creates ample tackle opportunity. The bottom line is this: play your Cowboys and Eagles assets in a pinch, but don’t be surprised if a line that should read 10 solos, five assists, turns into five solos and five assists.
Key stat: The Eagles defense has faced an average of 22.1 rushing attempts per game, with the league average standing at 25.3.
Baltimore defenders at Cleveland
Stadium TVO rank: 28th (1.097)
Neither set of tacklers holds much appeal in this game due to the TVO factor being so poor, but the Browns offense has hardly woken up all season and wouldn’t be among the offenses to target anyway. Baltimore’s defense is on an epic tear as well, averaging just 44 tackle opportunities per game (league average is 50) and facing just 20.9 rushing attempts per game. The last meeting between these teams saw Nick Chubb break off a couple of long ones, so there is every chance the Browns test out that avenue again.
And yet this Ravens team is nowhere near what it was when they last clashed, with Lamar Jackson on an MVP run and the defense routinely shutting down opponents. This will be a tough ask for the Browns offense, a unit that has allowed just 47.8 tackle opportunities per game. Fade this game and focus your attention elsewhere on championship week.
Key stat: The Browns offense averages just 20.4 completions per game, buried among the bottom half of the league.
Best of luck with Week 16 and make sure to check back next week for more matchup analysis.
If you have any further questions or tricky line-up decisions you need advice with, please drop me a line at larkin@footballguys.com, or if you prefer you can tweet me @davlar87.