S-Car-Go...
Chase Claypool's rise to fantasy prominence during the first half of the season has been an exciting development. The No.8 receiver in non-PPR leagues and the No.15 option in per-catch formats, Claypool has earned consistent opportunities to show his wares to the NFL.
A big and fast receiver with the skill to adjust to the football at the perimeter and enough acceleration after the catch to finish plays in the end zone, Claypool averaged 19.7 yards per catch during the first six weeks of the year. The Steelers have also fed him the ball as a runner near the stripe, and two of Claypool's six touchdowns (second among receivers after six weeks) are rushing scores.
The Titans changed this trend in Week 7, limiting Claypool to one catch for minus-two yards and the only positive thing Claypool did in the game drew a defensive pass interference penalty—great for the Steelers, but bupkus for fantasy players. This performance begs the question: Is Claypool's coming-out party over or was this a brief but inconvenient interruption?
Another question on the minds of fantasy players is how this might alter expectations for JuJu Smith-Schuster moving forward. After six weeks, those that hadn't sold off their investment in Smith-Schuster were wondering if it was time to pull the trigger. Considering he was the 44th- and 40th-ranked receiver in non-PPR and PPR formats, respectively, it was looking like their patience would not be rewarded.
Sunday's Titans' matchup offered a glimmer of hope. Smith-Schuster jumped three spots in non-PPR and seven spots in PPR leagues, an indicator that if Claypool's fantasy woes are the beginning of a trend, the veteran Steeler could reap the benefits.
Is this a case of Trading Places with the fantasy values of Claypool and Smith-Schuster? After all, if Smith-Schuster earned a score on one of his red-zone targets, that added production would have easily made the vet a top-10 performer in Week 7.
After comparing and contrasting the way opponents have played Claypool, I believe the answer for GMs with Claypool on their rosters is "Sell! Sell! Sell!" and the answer for Smith-Schuster's GMs is "I can see...I have legs!"
Ok, these recommendations aren't as simple as stated. I couldn't help myself when it came to referencing movie quotes.
However, with two meetings against Baltimore, a feisty Washington defense, and capable personnel on the Buffalo and Indianapolis units, there are five weeks between now and Week 16 where we could see a Trading Places Effect with the fantasy production of Claypool and Smith-Schuster.
The proof is the tape of how opposing defenses played Claypool from Weeks 1-6 and how the Titans adjusted in Week 7 based on its film study.
Video Graphics and Editing: Peter Gumas Inquiries: Alex Hanowitz (hanowitz.alex@gmail.com)
It's clear from the video above that man-to-man defenders didn't respect Claypool's sideline prowess enough to disrupt the rookie's efforts at the catch-point early in the year, and zone defenders paid far more attention to the known quantities of Pittsburgh's receiving corps. According to a veteran NFL scout I communicate with regularly, the NFL typically waits 4-5 weeks before making actionable changes based on early-season game film. Based on the way Tennessee handled similar coverage scenarios with much different behavior, this is indicative of what happens when NFL teams adjust to what they've seen.
We should expect good defenses to make Claypool the No.1 priority in underneath zones when the Steelers employ three receivers to one side of the field. When they play zone and Claypool is singled out to one side of the field, expect teams to play with two or three safeties deep and shift one of those safeties to the numbers so they are closer to Claypool's vertical route to help out at the top of the pattern.
And when they play man-to-man, count on the cover corners not to eye-ball the quarterback during the route and interfere with Claypool at the catch-point on vertical routes if they have lost position. We may even see some teams bracket Claypool with high-low defenders and force the Steelers into a short passing game.
While many of these scenarios will benefit Diontae Johnson on the opposite side of the field, don't sleep on Smith-Schuster, because he'll offer Roethlisberger a lot of quick and reliable yards in the underneath zones as well as win plays up the seams due to safeties making Claypool the first priority.
Fantasy Advice: Frozen Concentrated Orange Juice
Look for Dallas and Cincinnati to offer Claypool's GMs a great opportunity to sell him now. I can imagine many will think of you (and this advice) as on overreaction to one game and gladly think they are stealing Claypool from you, especially when Cincinnati's awful secondary is on the remaining schedule twice and they still get Claypool against Jacksonville in Week 11.
If Claypool was nothing more than free money as a late-round pick in your drafts and you can afford to keep him, then he'll make a great match-up play if you're disciplined with seeing him this way. In this case, you can weather the potential ups and downs of his performances that will likely come against the five defenses on the schedule best-suited to limiting him.
Otherwise, trading Claypool could get you a steadier performer in return—maybe even two players who can help your roster if you have a downtrodden team that's scoring well but has some holes that you could cover that will lead to contender-like scoring the rest of the way.
As for Smith-Schuster, if you waited this long and began asking me about him last week, your best trade window to sell him has long passed in most leagues. Might as well keep him and see if you can get solid WR2 value from him for at least five of the next eight weeks. I think you will when considering what we saw from the Titans game.
If one of your GMs dropped Smith-Schuster, he could be a cheap addition who gives you no worse than WR3 value during these five games that are more likely to favor the vet than the rookie.
Bottom line: Unless the Steelers adjust quickly to what the Titans did—a precursor to what we'll see other defenses do—expect Claypool to be a volatile big-play vertical receiver along the lines of what we've seen from Henry Ruggs this year in the passing game. The Steelers are winning regardless of Claypool's statistical value because they have enough weapons to benefit from the extra attention given to the rookie.
Claypool's presence creates more zone openings for other good options and leads to lighter boxes for the ground game. Based on the way the Steelers responded to the Titans defense with its short passing game, there will be no reason to make Claypool's dwindling production a priority if the offense remains successful--and I believe it will.
Smith-Schuster and Johnson have the skill after the catch and the ability to benefit from defenses making Claypool the upgraded priority for coverage. So if you need to be bold, act now and sell Claypool now.
If Claypool has been a convenient luxury, be forewarned of the potential highs and lows ahead and monitor how this plays out so you can adjust without incurring too many losses due to lineup mismanagement.
And if you have Smith-Schuster? You may find yourself exclaiming to your screen, "I can see...I have legs!"
