Introduction
Monkey Knife Fight is one of the fastest growing daily fantasy sites and offers a unique product that is a lot of fun. There are no salary caps and you do not have to compete against DFS pros. Instead, you simply find the combination of player props you are most confident in and pick more or less . Since each combination (two or more players) are playing in the same game, we can use correlation to our advantage. For example, if we know that one starting quarterback throws for more yards than projected, the opposing quarterback is more likely to throw for more yards also.
In this weekly article, we will count down the five best props of the week, saving the best for last.
Number 5: Not quite right
D.J. Chark under 13.5 fantasy points
Marvin Jones under 12.5 fantasy points
- Neither of these fantasy point totals looks particularly high, but both Jones and Chark have been struggling to really get going this season. Neither looked like themselves last week.
- We are getting a small bit of positive correlation on the opposing unders with the expectation we do not end up in a shootout.
- Marvin Jones is only 30-years old but is showing some signs of decline. No wide receiver in the NFL is generating less separation in their routes this season. According to NextGen Stats, Jones’ 1.6 yards of separation is worst in the NFL.
- In two games since Kenny Golladay returned, Jones has averaged just 2.5 targets per game.
- D.J. Chark left last week’s game with an ankle injury and did not return. He has not yet practiced this week.
Receiver DJ Chark joined the list Wednesday, unable to practice because of an ankle injury that occurred in this past Sunday's game at Houston. https://t.co/TDzrnmPKKE
— Florida Times-Union (@jaxdotcom) October 14, 2020
- We will want to monitor this situation before locking anything in on Sunday but all signs point to the possibility we will be getting a version of Chark that is less than 100%.
Number 4: Rapidfire Bengals-Colts
Joe Burrow (-0.5) more fantasy points than Philip Rivers
Jonathan Taylor (-0.5) more fantasy points than Joe Mixon
- We are getting a positive correlation here. If Joe Burrow has a relatively big day through the air, then it is more likely the Bengals touchdowns came via the pass (making it less likely Joe Mixon scores). We have the same dynamic in play for the Colts. If we assume a big fantasy game from Jonathan Taylor, it is less likely Philip Rivers has a big game.
- Picking the Colts running game and Bengals passing game fits perfectly with our projected game script. The Colts are 8-point home favorites. This is a game where they should be playing from ahead. On the other side, the Bengals are much more likely to be in catchup mode with Burrow forced to throw.
- Our consensus projections like Burrow narrowly here (15.7 fantasy points to 14.7 for Rivers). Season-long numbers are strongly in Burrow’s favor. He is scoring 5.6 more fantasy points per game than Rivers in 2020.
- It is hard to understate just how bad of shape the Bengals defensive line is in after an onslaught of injuries. Top run-stopping defensive end Sam Hubbard is out. Defensive tackle Geno Atkins finally returned but looked awful in playing just 12 snaps last week. Even worse, the rest of the Bengals projected depth chart at defensive tackle is on IR.
The Bengals now have three defensive tackles on IR -- Renell Wren (quadriceps), Mike Daniels (elbow) and D.J. Reader (quadriceps). #Bengals
— Tyler Dragon (@TheTylerDragon) October 12, 2020
Number 3: Miami beats the Jets
Myles Gaskin more than 14.5 fantasy points
Breshad Perriman less than 10.5 fantasy points
- The consensus projection of 15.9 fantasy points is solidly on the over for Myles Gaskin. We are placing our faith in an underrated Miami team being able to dominate this matchup against the Jets.
- You would have fared well in recent years simply betting against Joe Flacco at every opportunity. We will do that here by taking a side against the Jets passing game.
- 10.5 is a relatively big number for Breshad Perriman considering he is coming back from an ankle injury and is not even a lock to play on Sunday. We have a strong consensus on the under from our Footballguys projectors, who on average are projecting just 5.1 fantasy points from Perriman.
Breshad Perriman said it was a “blessing” to be out there at practice today. Added he’s feeling “good” and chances of playing Sunday looks “pretty good” #jets
— Connor Hughes (@Connor_J_Hughes) October 14, 2020
- Gaskin has quietly emerged as one of the more consistent workhorse running backs in the league in recent weeks. Over the last three games, he has averaged 16 carries and 4.3 receptions per game. He is coming off of his best performance to date, 20.1 fantasy against a tough 49ers defense.
- The Jets have given up at least 23 fantasy points to every single running back group they have faced this season. It has been especially bad of late with the Jets allowing 29+ fantasy points to opposing backs in each of the last four games.
Number 2: Overs in Philly
Mark Andrews over 14.5 fantasy points
Travis Fulgham over 9.5 fantasy points
- We are again going to try to get correlation in our favor. If this game skews towards a higher-scoring affair, we are more likely to get the over on both of these props.
- There is a split decision amongst Footballguys projectors when it comes to this prop. Only Sigmund Bloom has Andrews with the over. He projects Andrews for a 4-56-0.9 line (15.0 fantasy points). We will side with Bloom on this one. Andrews has been hot of late, racking up 20.7 and 17.6 fantasy points, respectively, over the last two weeks despite both games being blowouts. This week should be competitive and the Ravens will be forced to stay aggressive for four quarters on the road against the Eagles.
- With Darius Slay expected to be the primary coverage man on Marquise Brown, Mark Andrews will have the best matchup and is the clear pass catcher to target here.
- The Eagles have given up huge numbers to opposing tight ends. Remember George Kittle’s absurd 15-183-1 game on 15 targets? This defense also gave up 5-54-3 to Tyler Higbee. Eric Ebron and Logan Thomas also had relatively strong outings against the Eagles defense.
- Travis Fulgham is fresh off of a 31.2 fantasy point game against the excellent Steelers defense. He has quickly emerged as the go-to target in an Eagles offense starved for playmakers. We have consensus among the Footballguys projection staff with Bloom, Dodds, and Tremblay each projecting Fulgham for 11.7 or morefantasy points.
5 different countries.
— GMFB (@gmfb) October 15, 2020
No recruiting letters.
No scholarship offers.
A walk-on at @OldDominion.
And now, the @Eagles no. 1 WR. @PSchrags with a deep dive on @TravisFulgham's incredible and inspiring NFL story. pic.twitter.com/chpoRDVzjz
Number 1: Fading Primetime Dalton
Kyler Murray (+16.5 passing yards) versus Dalton
DeAndre Hopkins (-1.5 receptions) versus Amari Cooper
- The first thing to really like about this prop is we have correlation in our favor. If Kyler Murray has a big day, DeAndre Hopkins is more likely to outperform Amari Cooper.
- As a Bengals fan, I am painfully aware of the struggles Andy Dalton has had in primetime games. For his career, he has a 6-19-1 record in these games and averaged only 219 passing yards per game.
- In terms of betting on game script, this is a spot where it would make sense for the Cowboys to put more of the offensive burden on Ezekiel Elliott in Dalton’s first start.
- Kyler Murray is coming off of a week in which he threw for 380 yards against the Jets defense (25th in DVOA) and will face a similar unit in the Cowboys 24th-ranked defense. This is also a matchup between the first and fifth fastest-paced offenses in the NFL. Murray and Hopkins should see a lot of snaps.
- This is a nice spot for Hopkins. The Cowboys defense has been torched consistently by the opposing team’s top wide receiver. Each #1 faced by the Cowboys to date has racked up at least 100 total yards. Though touchdowns are not a part of this prop, it is still worth noting opposing WR1s have averaged 1.6 touchdowns per game as well. There is nothing stopping the Cardinals from peppering their go-to skill position player with targets.
Looking back at last week
Overall Season (+0.5 units)
We entered the week +1.5 and were up to +4.5 after a 3X win last Thursday night. Both Tom Brady and Nick Foles went under their passing props in what was a defensive battle.
It was downhill from there, losing each of the final four props to drop back to +0.5 overall. We had under in passing yards for both Matt Ryan and Teddy Bridgewater. Ryan was an easy under with over 75 yards to spare but Bridgewater hit the over by 22 yards. The Ravens-Bengals props were both misses. In the Colts-Browns matchups, we hit on Kareem Hunt (rushing over) but missed the under on T.Y. Hilton’s receptions. Lastly, we hit on only half of our Raiders-Chiefs props. Sammy Watkins went under by 40 yards but Hunter Renfrow was less involved than we expected. Carr spread the ball around to 11 different targets.