Monkey Knife Fight is one of the fastest growing daily fantasy sites and offers a unique product that is a lot of fun. There are no salary caps and you do not have to compete against DFS pros. Instead, you simply find the combination of player props you are most confident in and pick more or less . Since each combination (two or more players) are playing in the same game, we can use correlation to our advantage. For example, if we know that one starting quarterback throws for more yards than projected, the opposing quarterback is more likely to throw for more yards also.
In this weekly article, we will count down the five best props of the week, saving the best for last.
Number 5: Not quite right
- Neither of these fantasy point totals looks particularly high, but both Jones and Chark have been struggling to really get going this season. Neither looked like themselves last week.
- We are getting a small bit of positive correlation on the opposing unders with the expectation we do not end up in a shootout.
- Marvin Jones Jr is only 30-years old but is showing some signs of decline. No wide receiver in the NFL is generating less separation in their routes this season. According to NextGen Stats, Jones’ 1.6 yards of separation is worst in the NFL.
- In two games since Kenny Golladay returned, Jones has averaged just 2.5 targets per game.
- D.J. Chark Jr left last week’s game with an ankle injury and did not return. He has not yet practiced this week.
Receiver DJ Chark joined the list Wednesday, unable to practice because of an ankle injury that occurred in this past Sunday's game at Houston. https://t.co/TDzrnmPKKE— Florida Times-Union (@jaxdotcom) October 14, 2020
- We will want to monitor this situation before locking anything in on Sunday but all signs point to the possibility we will be getting a version of Chark that is less than 100%.
Number 4: Rapidfire Bengals-Colts
- We are getting a positive correlation here. If Joe Burrow has a relatively big day through the air, then it is more likely the Bengals touchdowns came via the pass (making it less likely Joe Mixon scores). We have the same dynamic in play for the Colts. If we assume a big fantasy game from Jonathan Taylor, it is less likely Philip Rivers has a big game.
- Picking the Colts running game and Bengals passing game fits perfectly with our projected game script. The Colts are 8-point home favorites. This is a game where they should be playing from ahead. On the other side, the Bengals are much more likely to be in catchup mode with Burrow forced to throw.
- Our consensus projections like Burrow narrowly here (15.7 fantasy points to 14.7 for Rivers). Season-long numbers are strongly in Burrow’s favor. He is scoring 5.6 more fantasy points per game than Rivers in 2020.
- It is hard to understate just how bad of shape the Bengals defensive line is in after an onslaught of injuries. Top run-stopping defensive end Sam Hubbard is out. Defensive tackle Geno Atkins finally returned but looked awful in playing just 12 snaps last week. Even worse, the rest of the Bengals projected depth chart at defensive tackle is on IR.