Last month, the focus of this article was zooming way out and looking at dynasty values from above the forest. This month we go the other direction and get in amongst the trees, examining the individual player values that are rising and falling as we head into July.
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At this time of year, dynasty and redraft values tend to move in lockstep, and from a data perspective, the signal is often easier to catch in redraft. That is a big reason I track best ball ADP so closely. The redraft market has more participants and reprices players faster on news, so a player's ADP usually shifts weeks before his dynasty value catches up. As we go position by position, we will look at the players whose ADP has moved the most over the past month, work through why the market is reacting the way it is, and tie it back to what it means for dynasty. For each position I will also flag a few players the market is only just starting to reprice, the ones worth targeting in trades now, before they show up as risers in late July and August.
DTVC Plus Tool Update
Before the position-by-position breakdown, a quick update on the Dynasty Trade Value Chart Plus tool I build and maintain for Footballguys, because there have been some upgrades this past month. In last month's article, I wrote about a project where I used the real trades in my trade database to calculate values, mostly as a way to check whether I was too high or too low on individual players. The other thing I wanted out of it was a read on how the market prices the same player across different scoring settings, and that is where I got surprised. The market applies far less of a premium for league-specific settings than I expected. The clearest example was tight ends: even in tight end super premium formats like 2.0 PPR for the position, people were getting only a relatively modest premium for tight ends in trades compared to what they would get in a normal league with no TE Premium.
That left me with a tough question. I have put a lot of time into the math behind the positional adjustments in the tool, and I believe in them as a real edge over opponents who are not weighting these factors enough. But a big part of what this tool is for is simply capturing where the market is actually at on players and picks so you can make fair trades. Those two goals pull in different directions.
The new feature is my attempt to give you both. There is now a slider that controls how aggressively the positional multiplier gets applied to your league. Dial it to 0, and you see the base values for straight one-quarterback or superflex scoring (the same base values discussed in this article). The new default sits at 30%, which is my best approximation of where the trade market actually lands for the settings you select or import. The market does take into account differences in scoring and settings that impact trade values, and the default setting of the tool now reflects this market take. Push it to 100%, and you get the fully adjusted values, the way DTVC Plus worked before, which is what my positional model thinks players should be worth in your league. You decide how much weight you want to put on positional adjustments when you are using the tool for various tasks.
I have also decided to go back to posting the player values back into this article as a static table at the bottom. Just know that I update those values regularly, so the tool itself is always the most current version.
Quarterback
I recently appeared with Jeff Bell on an episode of the Footballguys Dynasty Podcast to talk about Dynasty QB strategy. Check it out. We discussed some of our favorites at the position and a number of other dynasty topics related to the position. Overall, it has been a very quiet month in terms of player news at the position with little real value movement. However, it is worth highlighting the biggest redraft risers and fallers at the position when comparing current June 30th ADP to the ADP on May 31st.
June ADP Risers
The biggest redraft winner at the position in June was Drake Maye. While it should have surprised no one that the long-rumored trade of A.J. Brown was officially completed in early June, the market still reacted positively to the deal. Maye is going 3.8 spots earlier in the best ball consensus now than he was at the beginning of the month. Adding a receiver who can consistently beat single coverage on the outside increases the odds that Maye can come close to repeating his 2025 league-leading 8.9 yards per attempt. Maye is not as prolific with his legs as other top quarterbacks (like Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson) nor in as pass-heavy an offense as that of Joe Burrow’s Bengals, so he needs to maintain a high level of efficiency to again rank among the top fantasy producers at the position. Given what we have seen from Maye in his first two NFL seasons, the improved weapons at his disposal, and the fact that he doesn’t turn 24 until just before the season, he is the dynasty QB2 and is closing the gap on Allen.
June ADP Fallers
I nudged Dart's value down this month as his redraft stock continues to cool. He has been sliding slowly but surely in drafts for months on end with drafters pricing in the risk of fewer designed runs and the Malik Nabers injury news. Jason Wood's excellent player spotlight lays out that bear case in full. His read is that last season's fantasy line leaned on a seven-week stretch that is unlikely to repeat. Seven of Dart's nine rushing touchdowns came in that window, the kind of scoring rate that can regress hard, and the final third of the year looked like he performed like a different player once defenses adjusted. Wood is just as skeptical of the situation around him: a bottom-quartile offensive line and a passing game that lives and dies with Nabers, who is reportedly still not all the way back from ACL surgery.
Running Back
There is an interesting dynamic at running back this year given how weak the rookie class is. There is always preseason hype for breakout young backs in the months leading up to the season, and that hype cycle is usually led by rookies. That is not the case in 2026, which leaves a bit of a void, and it is being filled by Year-2 and Year-3 breakout candidates. Many of them have already picked up serious redraft steam over the past month, and I highlight them below. I also see a few names most likely to become risers later in July, so I will also flag the players you can try to get ahead of the market on and buy before the cost climbs.
June ADP Risers
Full disclosure: I am not a believer in White as anything more than a change-of-pace back. But my dynasty trade values are built to reflect the market, with only a modest amount of my own bias creeping in, and the market is clearly buying White's role in the Washington offense. He has leapfrogged Jacory Croskey-Merritt in redraft ADP as the top Commanders back and is now going a round or more ahead of him. This is a spot where I think the market may be getting it wrong, but I still begrudgingly bumped White's value to 5.3. It is not a bad time to float some buy-low offers on Croskey-Merritt…
I have written about Brooks several times in recent months, but he is worth another mention as his redraft value keeps soaring. He is now going off the board at the top of the 9th round in best-ball leagues, and in high-stakes redraft formats like the NFFC Footballguys Championship, it is not uncommon to see him go as early as the 6th, often ahead of teammate Chuba Hubbard. He is the definition of a high-risk, high-reward dynasty asset. He does not turn 23 until later this month and profiled as a high-end three-down back before the injuries. If healthy, he could emerge as a top-12 dynasty back. If the knees do not hold up, he could be another of those historical injury what-ifs.
There is a world in which the Jacksonville backfield turns into a frustrating committee in 2026. LeQuint Allen Jr. is a trusted pass protector who should keep seeing snaps in obvious passing situations, and Chris Rodriguez Jr. is a battering ram who could grind out early downs and handle a chunk of the red zone and short-yardage work. In that world, Tuten gets squeezed from both sides. There is also a world in which he emerges as the clear lead back, in the kind of role Travis Etienne Jr. played in 2025, with Rodriguez stepping into Tuten's old job as the RB2. The market is leaning toward that more optimistic scenario. Tuten's ADP has solidified in the 5th round while Rodriguez, out with a foot injury, has dropped like a rock in June drafts. I raised Tuten's base trade value from 10.6 to 12.5 to reflect that he is now going off the board right alongside players like Bucky Irving and Quinshon Judkins in summer best ball drafts.
June ADP Fallers
Price is a tricky valuation. On one hand, he is a talented young back with first-round draft capital, and the backfield around him is thin: a couple of nondescript healthy veterans in George Holani and Emmanuel Wilson, plus Zach Charbonnet, who is not expected back until at least midseason after a January ACL tear. On the surface, it is easy to envision Price quickly emerging as a three-down workhorse and watching his dynasty value explode. On the other hand, every report out of Seattle points to a committee even before Charbonnet returns. The team legitimately likes Holani, and my baseline assumption is that he handles the primary pass-catching role for the first half of the season. Ken Walker III was a similar prospect to Price, arguably a stronger one, and he spent much of his Seattle tenure stuck in a frustrating committee. The market is starting to take the rose-colored glasses off Price's 2026 outlook, and he is falling further in drafts than he was a month ago.
Front-Running the Hype
There are a number of younger backs who have not seen their ADP spike yet, but I believe it is coming. There is a window to still buy relatively low before training camp opens.
- Ray Davis - He heads into his third season as a post-hype breakout candidate who likely needs a James Cook III injury to break through. That being said, he is a premium injury handcuff who should see 20+ carries per game and goal-line work in one of the league's best rushing offenses, and that upside does not seem to be fully priced in to either his redraft or dynasty valuation.
- Jaydon Blue - His rookie season was rough, with Blue a healthy scratch until some meaningless late-season games. He spent the year in the coaching staff's doghouse amid questions about his maturity and work ethic. There are signs he is beginning to work his way back into the staff's good graces, and a potentially intriguing pass-catching and change-of-pace role is there for the taking.
- MarShawn Lloyd - His first two NFL seasons have been defined by a series of injuries that have instantly crushed any momentum he started to establish. However, if he can stay healthy, Lloyd has real upside. He's been nicknamed the "Yeet Cannon" by teammates and should be the RB2 if he continues his recent run of good health. Plus, the Josh Jacobs off-field stuff is still lingering out there and adds legitimate short-term upside if Jacobs gets suspended.
Wide Receiver
June's dynasty risers at receiver are an interesting group because, for many of them, nothing has materially changed over the past month to spur increased interest. Instead, it looks like generally positive OTA reports, combined with a closer read on how targets will be distributed in 2026, have turned a handful of them into hot commodities.
June ADP Risers
He has quietly posted back-to-back productive seasons, with 700-plus receiving yards and 8 touchdowns in each, yet he has been a disappointment given his first-round draft capital and the fact that he was drafted right between Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Zay Flowers. Steady momentum has been building behind Johnston and his fit in Mike McDaniel's offense. The scheme should accentuate his strengths, and he could be a prime beneficiary of Keenan Allen's departure. Allen saw 122 targets last season, and those have to go somewhere. If 20 or 30 of them go to Johnston, he has a clear path to 1,000 yards and double-digit touchdowns.
Downs' rise could stall or reverse if the Colts add a veteran receiver to the mix; they have been rumored as a potential destination for Keenan Allen or Deebo Samuel Sr. For now, though, the coaching staff is saying all the right things about Downs entering the season as the WR2 across from Alec Pierce. Michael Pittman Jr was targeted 111 times last season, and that volume has to be redistributed. Some of it probably ends up going to whatever veteran Indianapolis brings in to compete for the WR3 role, but Downs profiles as the biggest beneficiary.
Given how early Flowers was already going off the board, his continued rise stands out and could be an early signal that his dynasty value is about to explode. He is now going off the board at about the same pick Jaxon Smith-Njigba occupied at this time last year, and the parallels are interesting. Smith-Njigba was coming off a 100-catch, 1,130-yard season; Flowers is coming off an 86-catch, 1,211-yard season. If Flowers similarly benefits from a new and potentially more pass-heavy scheme, one where nothing threatens his WR1 status, it is easy to see him emerging as a premium dynasty asset.
June ADP Fallers
The redraft community is starting to fully price in the very real possibility that Nabers misses time as he continues to recover from a serious knee injury. What may not yet be fully priced in is the likelihood that he may not be back to 100% until late in 2026. Keep an eye on his dynasty market. I suspect his value will continue to flag over the coming months, which could create an opportunity to buy relatively low on a guy who is arguably the most talented young receiver in the NFL. (Nabers turns 23 later this month.)
Front-Running the Hype
Here are three wide receivers currently being drafted outside the Top 10 rounds who could see a big dynasty value boost over the next two months:
- Ryan Flournoy - He was an older rookie, and despite heading into just his third NFL season, he will turn 27 next October. Flournoy is also clearly blocked by CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens in the short term. However, offseason reports have been glowing, and Flournoy could challenge Jake Ferguson for third on the team in targets. Plus, Pickens does not seem close to a long-term extension and could depart Dallas next offseason. If he does, Flournoy has a real shot to emerge as the WR2 for the Cowboys.
- Jayden Higgins - He seems to have firmly locked down the WR2 job across from Nico Collins and has been a standout in OTAs. With the Texans potentially leaning more heavily into heavier formations after drafting another tight end in the second round, the target share of the top two WRs should be heavy. Plus, Higgins has serious injury contingency upside should anything happen to Collins (who has yet to play more than 15 games in any of his five NFL seasons).
- Tre' Harris - While Quentin Johnston and Ladd McConkey have soaked up all of the hype and press this offseason, Harris is quietly positioned to be a starting wide receiver for the Chargers. His size and well-rounded skill set should keep him on the field, and if McConkey or Johnston stumble in their transition to the new offense or suffer an injury, Harris is right there as a second-year wide receiver with second-round draft capital just waiting for his opportunity.
Tight End
It has been a fairly slow month for tight end news, but two young tight ends did sign massive new extensions. Kyle Pitts Sr. signed a three-year extension, making him the third-highest-paid tight end in the NFL behind only George Kittle and Trey McBride. Brenton Strange also signed a healthy three-year deal worth at least $36M with incentives that could push it to $48M. Kittle and Dalton Kincaid have seen their stock rise due to positive reports about their health heading into training camp.
June ADP Risers
Last offseason, I was drafting Tucker Kraft everywhere I could. This summer, I find myself gravitating to Kyle Pitts Sr. as my favorite tight end target at cost. It is easy to discount his 2025 season. He scored three of his five touchdowns in one game and did not do much outside of a late-season stretch when Drake London was sidelined. However, it is also possible that stretch gave an uber-talented player a much-needed confidence boost who battled injuries and inconsistency for most of his first five seasons before that Week 15 breakout. Offseason reports have been very positive, and I am buying into the narrative that Pitts can put up top-end fantasy numbers at the position even with London on the field.
He has always been a personal favorite of mine and another player I drafted heavily last offseason. Historically, it has simply made sense to bet on elite physical talents at the position to eventually break out. In his four seasons in Tennessee, Okonkwo showed flashes but never really broke through. Even so, he did enough to earn a three-year, $27 million deal from the Commanders, where he looks like the clear number two target for Jayden Daniels. We know it can take tight ends time to break out, and the massive quarterback upgrade could be the key to unlocking Okonkwo's TE1 upside.
June ADP Fallers
Mike Kashuba wrote an excellent spotlight article on McBride, arguing that his 2025 fantasy production isn't repeatable and that his cost is too high. McBride took off late last season in part because Marvin Harrison Jr. was out for a long stretch and the RB room had been decimated by injuries, leaving him the focal point of an offense that led the league in pass attempts. Two things work against a repeat in 2026: Harrison is healthy again, and rookie Jeremiyah Love, an elite receiver out of the backfield, tilts the offense more run-heavy and eats into the projected passing pie. New head coach Mike LaFleur is likely to lean that way too. Fewer pass attempts and more mouths to feed make 2025's volume tough to repeat. From a dynasty perspective, it is always hard to let go of a player coming off an historically great season. However, with the benefit of hindsight, it very often ends up being the right move. I wouldn't sell McBride at a discount, but it wouldn't hurt to shop around and see if anyone in your league is convinced he'll repeat last year's record-setting performance and is willing to pay up for that belief.
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