Photo: Gary A. Vasquez, USA Today Sports

Introduction

Monkey Knife Fight is one of the fastest-growing daily fantasy sites and offers a unique product that is a lot of fun. There are no salary caps and you do not have to compete against DFS pros. Instead, you simply find the combination of player props you are most confident in and pick more or less. Since each combination (two or more players) are playing in the same game, we can use correlation to our advantage. For example, if we know that one starting quarterback throws for more yards than projected, the opposing quarterback is more likely to throw for more yards also.

In this weekly article, we will count down the five best props of the week, saving the best for last.

Number 5: Thursday Night Special

Nick Mullens (+70.5) over Aaron Rodgers
Davante Adams (-3.5) over Trent Taylor

• We are going with a split ticket here on election week. Typically, we want to take advantage of the positive correlation and take one QB-WR combination or the other but the numbers favor the split ticket.
• We like the chances for Nick Mullens to end up within 70.5 passing yards of Aaron Rodgers’ total.
• San Francisco has allowed only one quarterback to throw for more than 261 yards this season.
• Last season, the 49ers held Rodgers to 104 passing yards in their regular-season matchup and less than 100 yards in the first half of the playoff matchup before Rodgers racked up some yardage in what was essentially garbage time.
• Nick Mullens has been a yardage machine. He averaged 285 passing yards per game after taking over for Jimmy Garoppolo midway through the 2018 season. He also passed for 343 yards in Week 3 and threw for 238 yards in the second half last week.
• Trent Taylor is one of the last men standing at wide receiver for the 49ers but this is a team that will spread the targets around to a variety of pass catchers including the tight ends, running backs, and fullback. Taylor will get some grabs but he may need 8 or 9 receptions to stay within 3.5 of Davante Adams.

WR Davante Adams has seen high volume/production in his last 2 gms

He has:

28 tgt / 20 rec / 249 yds / 5 tds

With the @packers not acquiring a WR at the trade deadline, Adams will continue to be leaned on by QB Aaron Rodgers and the Packers’ offense

— Mike Tannenbaum (@RealTannenbaum) November 4, 2020

• Davante Adams has played four full games this season. In those starts, he has averaged 10.0 receptions per game.

Number 4: Bills Stack

Josh Allen (+20.5) over Russell Wilson
Stefon Diggs (-5.5) over DK Metcalf

• After splitting the ticket in our first prop, we are getting back to our bread and butter here by taking advantage of a positive correlation play with our Bills passing stack over our Seahawks stack.
• Instead of focusing in on Allen versus Wilson as passers, we need to focus on the two defense because that is where we potentially see a bid edge. We should expect Wilson to come in below his season averages and for Allen to have one of his best passing games of the season given the defenses they will be facing.

The #Bills Josh Allen hasn't been tearing up the box scores recently, but that didn't stop @JeffRatcliffe from ranking him as the fifth best #FantasyFootball quarterback this week.

Jeff explains why on The Jeff Ratcliffe Show! pic.twitter.com/KrYRMSqPBe

— Fantasy Sports Radio (@SiriusXMFantasy) November 4, 2020

• Buffalo is allowing just 223.6 passing yards per game this season and 157.7 over their past three games.
• On the other side, Seattle is allowing 358.7 passing yards per game on the season and 302.3 per game over their last three.
• DK Metcalf has been fantastic this season but has arguably the toughest matchup possible this week with TreDavious White expected to shadow. White is an All Pro who has faced only 2.9 targets per game this season.
• Teams avoid White and we have seen that this Seattle passing attack will focus on where they have a matchup advantage, which in Week 9 will be Tyler Lockett in the slot.

Number 3: WR Overs

Will Fuller over 15.5 fantasy points
D.J. Chark over 12.5 fantasy points

• We get a small bit of correlation in our favor here. If this game goes over, both wide receivers are more likely to have big games.
• Chark has struggled this season but is getting healthier and due to get back on track given how talented he is. Rookie quarterbacks are more likely to lock onto their top target as opposed to going through progressions, so Chark should be a focal point of the offense with Jake Luton making his first career start.
• Chark has seen 21 targets over the past two weeks as his foot injury has healed up.
• In the six games this season that Fuller played more than 40 snaps, he has gone over 15 fantasy points in all but one. He was held to 12.5 when shadowed by elite young cornerback Jaire Alexander. Houston does not have a shutdown cornerback to worry about.

Number 2: Chargers running game

Justin Jackson over 13.5 fantasy points
Darren Waller under 15.5 fantasy points

• This is a sweet matchup for Jackson. The Raiders defense ranks 31st (DVOA) against the run. Las Vegas has given up the 6th-most fantasy points to opposing running backs (29 per game).

I’m old enough to remember when Justin Jackson’s hands were a concern. pic.twitter.com/gDGk3OjiEz

— Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman) November 2, 2020

• Over the last three weeks, Jackson has 13 receptions for 119 yards. That is 8.3 fantasy points per game just as a pass-catcher in Monkey Knife Fight’s full-PPR scoring format.
• Jackson has emerged as a key part of the Chargers offense and is coming off of a 22-touch game.
• Waller averaged 3.5 catches and 38.5 receiving yards in two games against the Chargers last season.

Number 1: Father Time is undefeated

Tom Brady under 297.5 passing yards
Drew Brees under 283.5 passing yards

• This is a strong correlation play. We are betting this does not turn into a major shootout.
• This is a matchup between the #1 defense (Tampa Bay) and the #8 defense (New Orleans) according to DVOA.

Tampa Bay is currently No. 1 in both run defense and pass defense by DVOA.

In the new version of DVOA that counts scrambles as passes, no team (since 1999) has ever been No. 1 in both run/pass D through Week 8. Or, for that matter, for an entire season.#GoBucs

— Aaron Schatz 🏈 (@FO_ASchatz) November 2, 2020

• Tampa Bay is allowing 229.1 passing yards per game and New Orleans is allowing just 237.9 per game. Unless both teams give up way more than they typically do, we are safe on the under.
• We have seen older quarterbacks start to fade when we get deeper into seasons in recent years. For the 41-year old Brees and 43-year old Brady, we should start to expect them to slow down as the season progresses.
• Brady has thrown for over 297.5 yards just twice this season and topped 297.5 yards in only 3 of his last 18 games.
• Brees is averaging 271.1 passing yards per game this season. We are getting some value here on the under considering the Buccaneers have the league’s #1 pass defense (DVOA).

Looking back at last week

Last Week: -1 unit

Overall Season (+1.5 units)

Hits

• We hit on our Monday Night Football props with both quarterbacks hitting the over on fantasy points.

Misses

• We came tantalizingly close on our 20X five-player prop in the Carolina-Atlanta game. We hit on 4-of-5 with Todd Gurley (46 rushing yards) coming up 16.5 yards short of what we needed despite getting 18 carries.
• We split on our Bengals-Titans bet with A.J. Brown coming way short of his receiving prop.
• Only an injury kept us from winning our Lions-Colts prop. Matthew Stafford easily outpaced Philip Rivers and T.Y. Hilton was held to two catches, so we just needed three catches from Kenny Golladay, who left the game with a hip injury.
• We lost both sides of our Chargers-Broncos props.