Eliminator Pool: Week 7

Over the past few years, we have given the subscribers of Footballguys.com some help in playing office pools, one of the most popular methods to follow the NFL aside from fantasy football leagues. For the past few seasons, both Dave Larkin and I have written the “For The Win” column where Dave attempts to pick each and every NFL game against the Las Vegas spread. This has been a very popular feature, so this year Footballguys once again is presenting the Eliminator Challenge, where staffers have to pick a team to win each week. Just one? That sounds easy, but here is the catch – you can only pick the team you choose in a given week once all season long. Many contests and pools out there get pretty big, so an Eliminator (or Survivor) Pool can go 16 or 17 weeks.

Jeff Pasquino has provided some insight into this kind of contest previously with a preseason strategy article, which describes this kind of contest along with some advice on how to pick a team each week:

Survivor Pool Strategy

This pool will run all season long, but to keep participation up, the pool will crown the staffer with the best W-L record for the season (which means that everyone in the pool will continue to make picks every week).

LAST WEEK'S RESULTS

Once again, most of the staff survived last week, as many went with the Dolphins (or was it against the Jets?) to a one-sided victory for Miami. A few unique picks also won for the group (Falcons, Giants, Colts) including two winless teams in Atlanta and the other New York franchise, so those were pretty wise contrarian selections. Only the Patriots failed for the staff, costing both Darin Tietgen and James Brimacombe their perfect start on the year. That leaves 11 of the 22 - exactly half - of the staff with a flawless 6-0 record. As we get deeper into October, bye weeks come up every week for the next several weeks, which will only compound the challenge for the group. Once again the level of difficulty will increase, so let's take a look and see what NFL Week 7 will have in store for the staff.

THIS WEEK'S PICK SUMMARY

Here are the picks for this week.

DISCUSSION

Taking a quick look at the lines for Week 7, the choices are quite a mixed bag. Roughly five games have favorites by five points or more, but taking away the Rams (-5.5 to -6) at home next Monday against the Bears, there are four teams that are expected to win by a touchdown or more this coming weekend. The biggest favorite is Buffalo (-12 to -12.5), who travel to New Jersey to take on the New York Jets. Seems to be a trend that the Jets are one of the teams to target to pick against the rest of the way. Next up are the defending champion Chiefs, who are also on the road in Denver but favored by over a touchdown (-8.5 to -9.5). The Chargers are the third team under strong consideration as they host Jacksonville, with Los Angeles (-8 to -8.5) coming off of a recently scheduled bye week. Lastly comes another matchup for a home favorite in a divisional contest with the Saints (-7 to -7.5) hosting a dangerous Carolina team. New Orleans should have Michael Thomas back and that could lead to a bigger performance for a Saints team that has struggled to get into gear of late. These four teams should comprise most, if not all, of our staff picks in Week 7.

The picks are due in late on Wednesday night, and many of the picks did land on the four teams mentioned earlier. The Bills lead the group with seven selections, followed by the Chargers (5), Chiefs (4), and Saints (4). Two unique picks round out the group as James Brimacombe is going with the Eagles (-4.5) to beat the Giants on Thursday Night Football, while Justin Bonnema is going with the Rams (-6) over the Bears on Monday. Some very interesting picks in Week 7 here with six different teams chosen, which certainly could make things interesting come next Tuesday in another exciting week in the Footballguys' Eliminator Pool.

Please note a few things: We will be doing these picks every week, win or lose, to keep it entertaining all season long. Normally a Survivor/Eliminator pool would end once all but one player lost once, but to provide our subscribers with more perspectives, everyone will pick every week even if they lose. That said, we will still try and honor the spirit of an Eliminator/Survivor Pool, trying to win every week and not re-use any teams during the year.

COMMENTARY

Each week, contestants are invited to submit any comments that they might have about their picks. If they submit them early enough, we post them with the article. If not, the comments will be within the section below.

Jeff Pasquino: Things continue to go well here with my picks this season, so I hope to keep that heading in the right direction with my Week 7 pick. Looking at the bigger favorites and which team is most likely to not have a better option down the line leads me to a home team coming off of a week of rest in an AFC matchup, but not within their division. Los Angeles should be well-rested and getting players back in the mix (Austin Ekeler, Keenan Allen) to boost the options for Justin Herbert. The Chargers get a Jaguars team that just dropped a winnable game at home to Detroit, so the Lions should be ripe for another loss as they head out to California. I see no better time to take the Chargers the rest of the way, so that will be my pick for this week (note, if forced to go with another team, I'd likely take New Orleans since Buffalo has already been used).

The Pick: Los Angeles Chargers

Sigmund Bloom: Now that we're in Week 7, the choice is getting a little tougher. I used the Bills in Week 1 against the Jets so I won't have Adam Gase to make a layup on this week. The best candidates left are the Chargers at home against Jacksonville and Kansas City at Denver. It's really hard to picture Drew Lock beating Patrick Mahomes II, but the Chiefs get the Jets next week. The Chargers get the Jets in Week 11. So to try to make my path easier, I'll take a team that doesn't have the Jets left on the schedule - the rested Saints at home against the Panthers.

The Pick: New Orleans Saints

Danny Tuccitto: I identified six teams available to me that I would plausibly pick this week. The Eagles and Chiefs have two future home games against Bottom 8 teams, so they're staying in the bank. Of the other four, Tampa Bay and Cleveland are on the road, with the Browns especially a "no thanks" given that they're going against a divisional opponent with a non-garbage quarterback.

So that leaves a choice between the Chargers vs. Jacksonville or the Falcons vs. Detroit. In the end, despite the Chargers having a Week 11 home game against the Jets on their upcoming schedule, their SRS team rating according to Pro Football Reference is 12 points higher than the Jaguars', which is one of the largest of the week. Another indicator I like about the Chargers is that the line per 538 (fivethirtyeight.com). Their model has the Chargers (-8), which is slightly more favorable vis-a-vis the betting public (-7.5) than Atlanta's, which is -2.5 according to both 538 and Vegas.

The Pick: Los Angeles Chargers

Jeff Haseley: I have not used the Bills yet, so I'm rolling with the Bills at the Jets. The rule of thumb is generally to stay away from division foes, but this is the 2020 Jets we're talking about here. The league leaders in statistical categories ranked 32nd or 31st in the league. The Jets offense in practice can't even score. This is a get-right game for the Bills who should be able to make quick hay with the Jets. In a tougher week for survivor picks, why take the chance? Go Bills for the win. See you next week.

The Pick: Buffalo Bills

Andrew Garda: Basically I am still riding the Pain Train that is the Jets. I flirted with the Giants but 1) they actually won a game and 2) the NFC East is such a mess that it's wildly unpredictable. I am going to have to come up with a solution now for the Jets bye week when I just figured I would use the Giants.

Luckily ill have plenty of choices if I dislike the look of Giants-Eagles that week either.

The Pick: Buffalo Bills

Good luck this weekend!

Questions, suggestions, and comments are always welcome to pasquino@footballguys.com

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