DK Metcalf Might Not Be As Elite As You Want Him To Be

Photo: Jerry Habraken, USA Today Sports

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A Tale of Two Seasons

After garnering more than a bit of offseason hype, DK Metcalf was shattering expectations through the first half of his sophomore campaign. He averaged 98.5 receiving yards and one touchdown per game. Behind only Davante Adams, he was second in fantasy points per game among wide receivers. Not only was he putting up big numbers, but he was also scoring emphatic touchdowns and becoming a favorite among Seattle’s 12th Man and fantasy managers, alike. But the young star hit a wall when it mattered most. Then from Week 10 onward, Metcalf was WR37 in per-game scoring. He found the end zone twice over the final half of the season, and his yardage dropped. He went from G.O.A.T. to goat.

So What Went Wrong?

Is Metcalf the dominant superhuman we saw through the warmer months? Or was he a flash in the pan with more risk than we’re willing to recognize?

Although some breaks didn’t go Metcalf’s way through the winter, his elite combination of size and speed make him one of the most enticing options in 2021. Paired up with Russell Wilson, known for his pinpoint downfield throws, it’s easy to make a case for Metcalf’s ceiling. Finishing as the overall WR1 is well within his range of outcomes. However, being on a team committed to running the ball and fighting for targets with Tyler Lockett gives him a hard-to-stomach weekly floor.

Is Metcalf Seattle's No. 1 Receiver?

Believe it or not, Tyler Lockett out-targeted Metcalf in 2021, 132-129. The speedster signed a four-year, $69-million contract this offseason to keep him in Seattle through 2025. Lockett was used primarily downfield through his first four seasons in Seattle, seeing a steady 4.1 to 4.4 targets per game in each season. Following the retirement of Doug Baldwin, Wilson’s safety valve, Lockett saw a sizable uptick in usage. He garnered 110 targets in 2019 and a career-high 132 in 2020. With the added targets came a drastic change in usage. Lockett has seen his average depth per target drop in every year since 2018. He recorded a career-high in catches, yards after the catch, and first downs last year. As the veteran receiver has expanded his versatility, the Seahawks have molded him to take over Doug Baldwin's previous role. He runs shorter routes and picks up hard-nosed yards after the catch, but can still turn on the burners to go over the top of opposing secondaries. And despite his small stature, through six seasons in the league, Lockett has only missed one game. Lockett has finished as a top-16 fantasy receiver in three consecutive seasons, with a career-best WR8 finish last year.

DK Metcalf might be Seattle’s “big play” receiver but let’s not act like Tyler Lockett doesn’t have wheels and a great rapport with Russell Wilson.

They’ve connected for 28 TD’s in the last 3 seasons.pic.twitter.com/TargBlU3TD

— Dave Kluge (@DaveKluge) July 21, 2021

Too Many Cooks in Russ's Kitchen

While Lockett is known for his extreme weekly volatility, DK Metcalf struggles with some inconsistencies himself. It’s tough to paint a picture of inconsistency, but if you rostered him last year, you know what it feels like. Looking at the numbers, he had the third-most weekly finishes as a WR1 and 13th-most as a WR2. The problem is that when Metcalf misses, he misses hard. He had three weeks where he was held under 30 yards, not salvaging any of those outings with a touchdown. He had two other sub-50 yard games. When he’s on, he’s can single-handedly win a weekly fantasy matchup. He scored ten touchdowns in eight games and eclipsed 90 yards in half of his outings. So, maybe we’re nitpicking here. But it’s reasonable to deduce that there isn’t much room for growth in this offense, especially when factoring in Wilson's career-high 40 touchdowns last year.

As much as fans want to "let Russ cook," this team wants to run the ball. Through 2018 and 2019, the Seahawks averaged the second-highest run rate. Injuries to lead running back Chris Carson put Wilson in a position where he was forced to through more, and he set a career-high in pass attempts in 2020. Wilson’s season-high 50 attempts came in a loss to Arizona, where Carson was knocked out in the first quarter, and he averaged well above his season average in the next four games that Carson missed. Committing to the run has been a formula for success in Seattle, and don't expect Pete Carroll to change his stripes even with a new offensive coordinator -- Shane Waldron -- taking over the play-calling.

The Seahawks had such little confidence in their backfield depth that they brought in Alex Collins off the streets after over an entire year off after Carson's injury. Like Lockett, the Seahawks recognized the value in Carson and gave him a contract this offseason. While Metcalf still has the potential to be the league’s premier receiver, this team has a lot of faith in their veteran trio of Wilson, Lockett, and Carson. That makes Metcalf’s route to being the league’s best receiver rather difficult.

How Much Higher is Metcalf's Ceiling?

Metcalf progressed immensely in his second year. Labeled a raw prospect with a thin route tree and stone hands out of college, Metcalf developed some technical skills in the offseason that helped him boost his efficiency numbers across the board. Not only did he see an increase in targets, but his targets came further down the field, he racked up more yards after the catch, he broke more tackles, he scored more touchdowns, and his drop rate went down. The final season stat line of 129 targets, 83 receptions, 1,303 yards, and ten touchdowns was exactly the breakout that his believers wanted to see. Heading into Year 3 and coming off a WR7 finish in fantasy, Metcalf is ranked as our WR7. But the deviation among rankers shows how wide the range of outcomes is. As far as our consensus top-10 receivers go, no one has a lower ranking than Metcalf’s WR17 tag by Matt Waldman.

Here’s what Waldman had to say: “Now, that [Metcalf] produced at a high level, fantasy GMs are expecting him to produce like Randy Moss, Julio Jones, or Calvin Johnson. These receivers were elite route runners that Metcalf will never become. The best all-around receiver on Seattle is Tyler Lockett, whose production in 2019 opened the field for Metcalf in 2020.”

It’s a harsh critique, but the points are impossible to deny. Lockett has shown improvement through six seasons as a receiver, developing from a deep threat to a polished and versatile player. As the more technically sound receiver on the team, Lockett needs to play his role for Metcalf to score on his game-breaking plays. Not mentioned in Waldman’s write-up was Chris Carson, the hammer that keeps this offense running. As mentioned before, the trio of Wilson, Carson, and Lockett makes this offense, and Metcalf found some early-season success as a game-breaker. Once defenses started to recognize Metcalf’s role in the offense, he was kept relatively in check.

So What Happened in the Back-half of the Year?

Well, listen to DK Metcalf himself: "Teams just started to figure us out. We've been running deep pass, ever since Pete (Carroll) got there. Play-action. Run the ball, run the ball, run the ball, go deep. Teams just said, 'We're just not gonna let you all go deep.'"

And What was Pete Carroll’s Response to These Struggles?

"We have to run the ball better. Not even run the ball better, run it more." Sorry, Seattle fans. I know you’re hungry. But it doesn’t look like Russ will be cooking in 2021.

The Seahawks brought in Shane Waldron this offseason as their new offensive coordinator. Waldron was the assistant coach for the Sean McVay-led Rams' team, and a lot of people consider him to be the architect of the Rams' offense. The Rams were a balanced team under Waldron's four-year tenure, ranking top-three in both passing and rushing yards three times each. Former Seahawks' offensive coordinator, Brian Schottenheimer, was known for his conservative playbook. The Seahawks were a run-first team and Metcalf ran slants and flies on over half of his routes. While there's hope that Waldron could utilize Metcalf better, the question marks regarding Metcalf's ability remain. Was this a case of poor utilization by Schottenheimer, or is Metcalf's skillset still limited? Realistically, it's a bit of both.

Metcalf's undeveloped route tree and the Seahawks' late-season woes could explain why the team drafted D'Wayne Eskridge with their first overall pick in this year’s draft. At 5-foot-9 and 190 pounds, Eskridge doesn’t have anywhere near the size or speed that Metcalf possesses. He's essentially the anti-Metcalf prospect. What he does have is a full route tree, strong hands, and a savvy football IQ. The knocks on Metcalf’s rookie profile haven’t disappeared. He still struggles to change direction and catch the ball. He's been able to make up for those blemishes by purely out-muscling and out-running the competition. As the season progressed though, defenses keyed on in stopping the big play. That, in turn, destroyed Metcalf’s fantasy value.

Metcalf is still only 23 years old and has all of the makings to improve and become this generation’s Calvin Johnson or Julio Jones. But as it stands now, he’s still in boom or bust territory, and his draft position this year can make that type of production difficult to stomach. With Chris Carson heading into the season with a clean bill of health, Tyler Lockett becoming Russell Wilson’s favorite target, and D’Wayne Eskridge joining the squad, expecting Metcalf to improve is far from a lock.

However, Almost All of our Projectors are Expecting an Increase from DK Metcalf in 2021

Final Thoughts

DK Metcalf is analytically enticing. He boasts an elite combination of size, speed, and strength and catches passes from a future Hall of Fame quarterback. That alone can lead you to dream about 2007 Tom Brady - Randy Moss numbers. But the upside is equally matched by downside risk. 2020 may prove to be DK Metcalf’s career peak. He may finish this year as more of a boom-or-bust WR2 than a bonafide WR1 stud. With Lockett in a position to lead the team in targets, Pete Carroll promising a commitment to the run, and D’Wayne Eskridge servicing as a more complete receiver, regression is well within Metcalf’s range of outcomes. When drafting him in the second round this year, you’re hoping for improvement in his technical skills and route running. You're swinging for the fences. It can pay off if he continues to improve or if Shane Waldron changes the team's offensive identity. But there are a lot of “ifs” to draft Metcalf at current ADP; caveat emptor.

Follow @DaveKluge