Monkey Knife Fight is one of the fastest growing daily fantasy sites and offers a unique product that is a lot of fun. There are no salary caps and you do not have to compete against DFS pros. Instead, you simply find the combination of player props you are most confident in and pick more or less . Since each combination (two or more players) are playing in the same game, we can use correlation to our advantage. For example, if we know that one starting quarterback throws for more yards than projected, the opposing quarterback is more likely to throw for more yards also.
In this weekly article, we will count down the five best props of the week.
Week 1 Note
The deeper we get into the season, the more picking prop winners becomes a game of grinding the data. In Week 1, the process is much different. Sure, we can look back at 2020 stats to get some baselines to work off of. However, teams change too much every season to take too much from past numbers. Instead, Week 1 is when we need to read the tea leaves about expected player usage and relative team strengths. For those who have been paying close attention to all of the reports coming out of training camp, there can be an informational edge early in the season. We hope to exploit that advantage in Week 1.
5: Balanced Passing Offenses
Antonio Brown MORE than 58.5 Receiving Yards
Michael Gallup MORE than 51.5 Receiving Yards
- The angle here is a belief that the Dallas and Tampa Bay passing offenses both end up being extremely balanced, with each of the three starting wide receivers being productive. To put it differently, the prediction is that by midseason, we are projecting each of the three starting wide receivers on both teams for 60+ receiving yards.
- There is a strong argument that tonight’s game features the two best receiving corps in the league.
Tampa coach Bruce Arians on Amari Cooper, CeeDee Lamb, Michael Gallup: "It's a huge challenge. They're loaded, and they all do different things. I think that threesome might be the best. I'll argue that ours might be, too. It's a hell of a challenge when you have that many guys."— Jon Machota (@jonmachota) September 5, 2021
- In the case of Antonio Brown, should we even feel comfortable labeling him as Tampa Bay’s WR3? Matt Waldman, who covered the Buccaneers throughout the preseason for the Footballguys training camp updates, regularly noted that Brown was the skill position player drawing the most rave reviews in camp.
- Despite coming in cold after basically missing a season and a half, Brown still averaged 60.3 receiving yards per game for Tampa Bay last season.
- Brown is likely to draw Anthony Brown in coverage, which is a favorable matchup for Tampa Bay considering that Brown was amongst the worst-graded corners in the league last season by Pro Football Focus.
- In the five games Dak Prescott started in 2020, Michael Gallup averaged 69.6 receiving yards per game.
- In 2019, Michael Gallup averaged 79.1 receiving yards per game with a median of 72 yards.
4: Fading Texans
James Robinson MORE than 16.5 fantasy points
Brandin Cooks MORE than 14.5 fantasy points
- One of the edges when parlaying player props is finding positive correlation plays based upon a predicted game script.
- In Week 1, Jacksonville is a 3-point road favorite but there is a decent chance they handle the Texans with ease. The angle here is a belief this Texans season could be a slow-rolling disaster. If Jacksonville comes out and dominates this game, James Robinson is going to get all the work he can handle in the second half and would carry a healthy touchdown expectation.
- If we have the correct read on the game script, it means Houston is going to be in comeback mode and forced to throw the ball.
- In covering the Texans all preseason for the Footballguys training camp updates, one thing that stood out was just how much Brandin Cooks dominated targets with the first-team offense. Every team scrimmage or preseason series when Cooks was on the field, he seemed to be getting almost half the targets.
- Nico Collins is a relatively promising rookie. Chris Conley and Anthony Miller are solid veterans. However, there is a clear gap between that group and Cooks, who is by far the team’s best pass catcher. If Houston is playing from behind, expect Cooks to see 10+ targets and rack up the PPR points.
3: Patriots Ground and pound
Damien Harris MORE than 70.5 rushing yards
Myles Gaskin MORE than 45.5 rushing yards
- There are two separate angles here which makes this an attractive prop. First, a belief that the Patriots will give Damien Harris 20+ carries in the first career start of Mac Jones. Second, a belief the Dolphins are going to use Myles Gaskin as more of a true RB1 than most are assuming.
- As noted in the introduction above, Week 1 is less about crunching numbers and more about trying to find ambiguous situations where you think you have a better read on things than the linemakers. In covering the Dolphins for Footballguys training camp updates, I am convinced that Gaskin will be more of a workhorse than many expect. The strange running back rotation in the first week of the preseason clouded the picture but everything since has pointed towards Gaskin dominating touches the same way he did in 2020.
- Gaskin rushing for more than 45.5 rushing yards is my favorite individual prop of the week.
- Gaskin topped 45.5 rushing yards in 6-of-7 starts last season, averaging 71.1 rushing yards in those games.
- Damien Harris averaged 5.0 yards per carry last season. If he comes close to that average in this game, he would need 15 carries to hit the over here. The prediction here is 18+ carries.
ðŸˆ If your fantasy football draft is coming up, @JoshNorris explains why you should target the #Patriots' Damien Harris.— You Better You Bet (@YouBetterYouBet) September 2, 2021
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