Photo: Steve Mitchell, USA Today Sports

Introduction

Monkey Knife Fight is one of the fastest growing daily fantasy sites and offers a unique product that is a lot of fun. There are no salary caps and you do not have to compete against DFS pros. Instead, you simply find the combination of player props you are most confident in and pick more or less . Since each combination (two or more players) are playing in the same game, we can use correlation to our advantage. For example, if we know that one starting quarterback throws for more yards than projected, the opposing quarterback is more likely to throw for more yards also.

In this weekly article, we will count down the five best props of the week.

Week 1 Note

The deeper we get into the season, the more picking prop winners becomes a game of grinding the data. In Week 1, the process is much different. Sure, we can look back at 2020 stats to get some baselines to work off of. However, teams change too much every season to take too much from past numbers. Instead, Week 1 is when we need to read the tea leaves about expected player usage and relative team strengths. For those who have been paying close attention to all of the reports coming out of training camp, there can be an informational edge early in the season. We hope to exploit that advantage in Week 1.

5: Balanced Passing Offenses

Antonio Brown MORE than 58.5 Receiving Yards

Michael Gallup MORE than 51.5 Receiving Yards

• The angle here is a belief that the Dallas and Tampa Bay passing offenses both end up being extremely balanced, with each of the three starting wide receivers being productive. To put it differently, the prediction is that by midseason, we are projecting each of the three starting wide receivers on both teams for 60+ receiving yards.
• There is a strong argument that tonight’s game features the two best receiving corps in the league.

Tampa coach Bruce Arians on Amari Cooper, CeeDee Lamb, Michael Gallup: "It's a huge challenge. They're loaded, and they all do different things. I think that threesome might be the best. I'll argue that ours might be, too. It's a hell of a challenge when you have that many guys."

— Jon Machota (@jonmachota) September 5, 2021

• In the case of Antonio Brown, should we even feel comfortable labeling him as Tampa Bay’s WR3? Matt Waldman, who covered the Buccaneers throughout the preseason for the Footballguys training camp updates, regularly noted that Brown was the skill position player drawing the most rave reviews in camp.
• Despite coming in cold after basically missing a season and a half, Brown still averaged 60.3 receiving yards per game for Tampa Bay last season.
• Brown is likely to draw Anthony Brown in coverage, which is a favorable matchup for Tampa Bay considering that Brown was amongst the worst-graded corners in the league last season by Pro Football Focus.
• In the five games Dak Prescott started in 2020, Michael Gallup averaged 69.6 receiving yards per game.
• In 2019, Michael Gallup averaged 79.1 receiving yards per game with a median of 72 yards.

4: Fading Texans

James Robinson MORE than 16.5 fantasy points

Brandin Cooks MORE than 14.5 fantasy points

• One of the edges when parlaying player props is finding positive correlation plays based upon a predicted game script.
• In Week 1, Jacksonville is a 3-point road favorite but there is a decent chance they handle the Texans with ease. The angle here is a belief this Texans season could be a slow-rolling disaster. If Jacksonville comes out and dominates this game, James Robinson is going to get all the work he can handle in the second half and would carry a healthy touchdown expectation.
• If we have the correct read on the game script, it means Houston is going to be in comeback mode and forced to throw the ball.
• In covering the Texans all preseason for the Footballguys training camp updates, one thing that stood out was just how much Brandin Cooks dominated targets with the first-team offense. Every team scrimmage or preseason series when Cooks was on the field, he seemed to be getting almost half the targets.
• Nico Collins is a relatively promising rookie. Chris Conley and Anthony Miller are solid veterans. However, there is a clear gap between that group and Cooks, who is by far the team’s best pass catcher. If Houston is playing from behind, expect Cooks to see 10+ targets and rack up the PPR points.

3: Patriots Ground and pound

Damien Harris MORE than 70.5 rushing yards

Myles Gaskin MORE than 45.5 rushing yards

• There are two separate angles here which makes this an attractive prop. First, a belief that the Patriots will give Damien Harris 20+ carries in the first career start of Mac Jones. Second, a belief the Dolphins are going to use Myles Gaskin as more of a true RB1 than most are assuming.
• As noted in the introduction above, Week 1 is less about crunching numbers and more about trying to find ambiguous situations where you think you have a better read on things than the linemakers. In covering the Dolphins for Footballguys training camp updates, I am convinced that Gaskin will be more of a workhorse than many expect. The strange running back rotation in the first week of the preseason clouded the picture but everything since has pointed towards Gaskin dominating touches the same way he did in 2020.
• Gaskin rushing for more than 45.5 rushing yards is my favorite individual prop of the week.
• Gaskin topped 45.5 rushing yards in 6-of-7 starts last season, averaging 71.1 rushing yards in those games.
• Damien Harris averaged 5.0 yards per carry last season. If he comes close to that average in this game, he would need 15 carries to hit the over here. The prediction here is 18+ carries.

🏈 If your fantasy football draft is coming up, @JoshNorris explains why you should target the #Patriots' Damien Harris.

💻: https://t.co/feIVr6Jr9H

🎧: https://t.co/r6F4Hl4b48 pic.twitter.com/QKdn4QG2MO

— You Better You Bet (@YouBetterYouBet) September 2, 2021

2: Focusing on Carry Projections

David Johnson MORE than 63.5 rushing yards

Darrell Henderson LESS than 61.5 rushing yards

• We are looking for Week 1 edges in places where we think we have a good read on expected usage. In this case, the read is that the Bears want to see David Montgomery get a heavy workload while the Rams would prefer a running back rotation.
• When the Bears drafted David Montgomery two years ago, the expectation was he could be a workhorse runner capable of regularly handling 20+ touches per game. We finally saw that type of usage down the stretch of the 2021 season when Montgomery averaged 22.5 touches per game over his last eight.
• In the first 28 games of Montgomery’s career he had 22+ carries just twice. He handled 22+ carries in each of the final three games of the 2020 season. Here is a fun animation showing just how strong a push Montgomery made late in the season:

2020 (PPR) Fantasy Points Leaders, By Week

Running Back

Alvin Kamara - 377.8
Dalvin Cook - 337.8
Derrick Henry - 333.1
David Montgomery - 264.8
Aaron Jones - 258.9 pic.twitter.com/K6nHniKuba

— Russell Clay (@RussellJClay) September 1, 2021

• Darrell Henderson should be the Rams top running back and heavily involved as a pass catcher. However, he is a player who projects for less than 15 carries per week. My projection is 12 carries and 4.5 targets per game to start the season for Henderson. At 12 carries, he would need to average 5.2 YPC against a good Bears defense to hit the over. Not impossible but the value here is on the under.
• The Rams are clearly concerned about Henderson’s ability to stay healthy and look like they want to take a committee approach at the position so Henderson is still in one piece come playoff time. Hence the trade for Sony Michel. Expect a healthy rotation and do not be surprised if Michel ends up being the feature back in the four-minute offense when the Rams are trying to sit on a lead.

1: Lamar Jackson Rushing Dominance

Lamar Jackson MORE than 59.5 rushing yards

Kenyan Drake LESS than 31.5 rushing yards

• Let’s start with Kenyan Drake. This is another case where my hunch is that the consensus read on a backfield is a little bit off. Many view the Josh Jacobs-Kenyan Drake combo is a 1A-1B committee. Instead, the more likely outcome is that Jacobs remains a true lead back and Drake is a rich man's version of Jalen Richard.
• The Raiders absolutely want to get Drake involved as a receiver. It would not be a surprise if he sees a handful of targets every week. The number of carries Drake receives is much more of a mystery and is likely going to be less than many assume.
• If the Raiders are in the lead, expect to see a heavy dose of Josh Jacobs. If the Raiders fall behind multiple scores, we should see a lot of Drake in the passing game but the offense would likely turn very pass-heavy. There are few game scripts in which we should feel confident that Drake sees the 8+ carries he would need to feel good about him rushing for 32+ yards.
• The Ravens lost starting running back J.K. Dobbins, backup Justice Hill, and will be without top pass catcher Rashod Bateman to start the season. Baltimore will need to lean more heavily on Lamar Jackson as a runner early in the season.
• Over the last two seasons, Jackson has averaged 73.7 rushing yards per game.
• The Ravens are a bad matchup for the Raiders front seven. Las Vegas is a team that would prefer to stay in nickel, especially with top linebacker Nicholas Morrow out. Las Vegas has been scrambling a bit, adding a pair of free agents (K.J. Wright and Denzel Perryman) in the last week, who will have to hustle to get up to speed learning a new defense. The Ravens will regularly use 12-personnel and exploit the Raiders weakness at linebacker.
• It just takes Jackson getting loose for one big gain to virtually assure we get to 60+ rushing yards. You have to feel good about his chances of breaking one against this defense.